CFB Zeitgeist Score
56
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by passes defended at the 99th percentile.
Avery Smith
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
42 TACKLES · 0 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Toledo for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Cornerback · Toledo
Returning around him
- 68% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 2 Toledo players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -5 net (33 in / 38 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Toledo · Last season: 8-5 · Talent rank #75 · 2026 recruiting class #73
CB · TOLEDO · MID-AMERICAN
Avery Smith
- 4
- #4
- 5-10 | 185 lb
- East Point, GA
Heisman Heat
#6841
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DB AWARD
Jim Thorpe
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
4 seasons on the ladder
2022
Toledo · CB
—
2023
Toledo · CB
—
★
2024
Toledo · CB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Toledo · CB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Toledo
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#8 in market ▼ from #6 · 4 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8241 | No. 1831 recruit | HighSchool | Toledo |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Toledo
Composite
0.8241
#1831 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Avery Smith
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Avery Smith
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 11g
42Tackles
5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Per game
4Tackles
0.5Tackles for loss
0Sacks
Projected (13g)
50Tackles
5.9Tackles for loss
0Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 42): needs 19/game over remaining 2.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 42): needs 29/game over remaining 2.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 0): needs 3/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 0): needs 5/game over remaining 2.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Avery Smith is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Toledo's defense, with 0.0 sacks, 5.0 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | Coverage splash | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
42 83rd
SOLO
31 89th
TFL
5.0 89th
SACK
0.0 65th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
10 99th
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 16-24@ Kentucky | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 60-0vs Morgan State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 4 | L 13-14@ Western Michigan | 3 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 3 | |
| Wk 5 | W 45-3vs Akron | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 2 | |
| Wk 7 | L 23-28@ Bowling Green | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 45-10vs Kent State | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 7-28@ Washington State | 6 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 24-3@ Miami (OH) | 5 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Wk 13 | W 38-9vs Ball State | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 2 | |
| Wk 14 | W 21-3@ Central Michigan | 7 | 6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 7 tackles |
| Bowl | L 22-27@ Louisville | 5 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 42 | 31 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 10 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Toledo9-5HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
2023Toledo11-3HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
2024Toledo8-5HC: Jason Candle · Balanced
2025Toledo8-5HC: Jason Candle · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 42 | #834/4942 | 83rd pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 5.0 | #553/4972 | 89th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 0.0 | #1762/4972 | 65th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 10 | #20/2184 | 99th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 31 | #483/4584 | 89th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return avg | -3.0 | #574/578 | 1st pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | INT return yards | -3 | #573/578 | 1st pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Thorpe award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Road7g | 4.7 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.7 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 3.5 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 1.2 |
| Losses5g | 4.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.0 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.8 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the CB cohort
56Solid starter
Elite: passes defended (99th). Strength: solo tackles (83rd). Concern: qb hurries (22nd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · CB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Avery SmithToledoTahj Ra-ElPurdue· 83% simTyler MartinMassachusetts· 83% simRobert FitzgeraldNorthwestern· 82% sim
Passes defended
Solo tackles
Tackles for loss
Tackles
Interceptions
Sacks
QB hurries
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Ball Hawk
Reads the quarterback's eyes and takes the ball away.
CB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Michael Coats Jr.’s 2025 season.
Michael Coats Jr.
87%match
#2
Tobias Harris
83%
#3
Samy Johnson
83%
#4
Jaylon Monroe
80%
#5
Isaiah King
79%
Matches Michael on
Class year
Height
Weight
Differs from Michael on
Tackle volume (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Daryl Porter Jr.'s senior season at Miami (2024).
Daryl Porter Jr.
88%match
#2
Kaylin Moore
86%
#3
Cameron Stone
86%
#4
Ethan Johnson
All-Sun Belt
85%
#5
Ricardo Hallman
All-Big Ten
82%
Matches Daryl on
Class year
Height
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jason Candle
Pass share
45.9%
397 pass / 467 run
Plays / game
66.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.5%
290 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Jason Candle
Toledo
2023
Jason Candle
Toledo
2024
Jason Candle
Toledo
2025
Jason Candle
Toledo
Played his entire career under Jason Candle.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownEast Point, GA
Height5'10"
Weight185 lb
Class4
PositionCB
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamToledo
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-MAC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-MAC | all_conference | Toledo | MAC | DB |
| 2024 | All-MAC | all_conference | Toledo | MAC | DB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Toledo | CB4 | #6841 | #7382 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Toledo | CB4 | #8944 | #8647 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2022 | Toledo | CB4 | #10920 | #10747 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mid-American |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Toledo | Mid-American | CB | 4 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 185 lb | East Point, GA |
| 2024 | Toledo | Mid-American | CB | 4 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 185 lb | East Point, GA |
| 2023 | Toledo | Mid-American | CB | 4 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 185 lb | East Point, GA |
| 2022 | Toledo | Mid-American | CB | 4 | No. 4 | 5-10 | 185 lb | East Point, GA |