Christian McCaffrey: RB · Stanford · #5.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Christian McCaffrey
Hits the crease and outruns the angle. Third year in the same backfield at Stanford. That makes two straight seasons on the honors list: All-Pac-12 again in 2016. A game that shows it: 284 rushing yards and 22 receiving yards against California — Week 12, 2016.
Play style
Cuts upfield fast. Designed to find the crease, not run through the line.
Boom vs consistent · carry-yardage shape
Steady, not spectacular
Just 18.1% of his season rushing yards came on his 5 best carries — remarkably even — and he's stuffed on 10.3% of his carries. 8 carries for 35 yds vs Washington State; 31 for 284 vs California.
Counted from the play-by-play, so a carry or two can differ from the box score.
Closer · Q4-with-lead carry share
Not actually a closer
52.5% of carries overall (251/478) → 36.7% of Q4-with-lead carries (40/109) — 70.0% of those in competitive (≤16-pt) games.
Counted from the play-by-play, so a carry or two can differ from the box score.
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
17 of 21 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (81.0%). 10 of the team's 16 inside-the-5 carries (62.5%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2016 season · 11 games
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| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 26-13vs Kansas State | 22 | 126 | 5.7 | 2 | 41 | |
| Wk 3 | W 27-10vs USC | 31 | 172 | 5.5 | 1 | 33 | 172-yard day |
| Wk 4 | W 22-13@ UCLA | 26 | 138 | 5.3 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 5 | L 6-44@ No. 10 Washington | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 6 | L 16-42vs Washington State | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 0 | 23 | |
| Wk 8 | L 5-10vs Colorado | 21 | 92 | 4.4 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 9 | W 34-10@ Arizona | 23 | 169 | 7.3 | 2 | 45 | 169-yard day |
| Wk 10 | W 26-15vs Oregon State | 32 | 199 | 6.2 | 1 | 51 | 199-yard day |
| Wk 11 | W 52-27@ Oregon | 17 | 135 | 7.9 | 3 | 61 | 3 rushing TDs |
| Wk 12 | W 45-31@ California | 31 | 284 | 9.2 | 3 | 90 | Season-high 284 yds |
| Wk 13 | W 41-17vs Rice | 30 | 204 | 6.8 | 1 | 42 | 204-yard day |
| Total | 253 | 1603 | 6.3 | 13 | 90 |
Week 3 · 2016
W 27-10
vs USC
The plays that mattered most
Rush profile · Shape, efficiency, and ball security
How he gets his yards, and how often it works
Success rate
47%251 carriesFumble rate
0.4%1 of 253 carriesStuffed
0 or fewer ydsGrind
1–3 ydsChunk
4–9 ydsExplosive
10+ yds6.3 yds/carry on 253 carries · 15% explosive (10+ yds) · 47% success rate.
Situational · Carry shape (PBP, full season)
Yardage DNA
Stuffed (≤0)
Grind (1–3)
Chunk (4–9)
Explosive (10+)
3 seasons under David Shaw — 30-10 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2016 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 138 | 5.5 | 0.8 |
| Road5g | 155 | 6.8 | 1.6 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 104 | 5.0 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 180 | 7.0 | 1.7 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
David Shaw
Pass share
37.1%
303 pass / 514 run
Plays / game
62.8
13 games
Team sack rate
10.0%
341 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Player standing · 2016
First team in his league at the position.
Career, closed
Gone at #8 overall.
How it ended
Three seasons at Stanford, 3,922 rushing yards, a first-team All-Conference season (2015) — drafted at #8 overall by the Carolina Panthers.
A blue-chip recruit with honors.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-PAC-12 · 1ST TEAM
All-Pac-12 1st team (2016)
Coaching lineage · 2014–2016
1 coachPlayed every college season under David Shaw.
Next stop · NFL
Carolina PanthersEntering 10th NFL season
Carolina PanthersEntering 10th NFL season
