Dylan Carson

Senior running back for Air Force. 2025: 419 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD.

RB · Air Force · Sr. · #5

6′0″ · 215 lb · Marysville, WA

CFB Index 37 · #254 of 326 RBsHigh confidenceReturning to Air Force for 2026

The numbers

419

rushing yards · 2025

4 TD · 4.6 per carry

Swing playSwung Boise State from 60% to 85% to win.Boise State at Air Force · 49-37

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 running back for Air Force. 2025: 419 rushing yards, 4 rushing TD.

His career, year by year

How he plays

Does a little of everything without one standout trait.

TD rate: 42nd percentile.

The full scouting read

Dylan Carson

RB · Air Force · Sr · #5

Does a little of everything without one standout trait. This is his third year in the same backfield at Air Force. One game to point at: 109 rush yds, 1 rush TD against Boise State — Week 4, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
seasons on the roster
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

3 seasons under Troy Calhoun — 18-19 over that span.

2023Air Force9-4HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy, slow tempo

2024Air Force5-7HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy

2025Air Force4-8HC: Troy Calhoun · Run-heavy

Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

37Below cohort / limited sample #254 of 326?

High confidence10 metrics · season cumulative

Concern: explosive rate (29th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

TD rate#264 / 456 · 42nd pct

2.3%

EPA / carry#282 / 456 · 38th pct

0.07

Success rate#290 / 456 · 36th pct

40.9%

Yards / carry#292 / 456 · 36th pct

4.6

Explosive rate#323 / 456 · 29th pct

4.5%

Box-score rates (5)

Long run#82 / 349 · 76th pct

Rush TDs#153 / 349 · 50th pct

Carries#187 / 349 · 47th pct

Rush yards#199 / 349 · 43rd pct

419

Yards / carry#213 / 349 · 37th pct

4.6

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / carry

29th → 38th percentile

Success rate

67th → 36th percentile

Explosive rate

12th → 29th percentile

Yards / carry

20th → 36th percentile

TD rate

35th → 42nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Home6g	37.7	4.8	0.3
Road6g	32.2	3.9	0.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	YPC	TD/g
Weeks 1-76g	43.0	4.3	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	26.8	4.4	0.3

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Troy Calhoun

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Part-time starter

Splitting first-team reps — starts some weeks, rotates others.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

37 · #254 of 326 RBs

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-Mountain West

Based on 2025: #28 of 34 Mountain West RBs

How the All-Mountain West estimate is computed

15% estimated, 95% confidence interval 13–17%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Air Force	91	419	4.6	4	--
2024	Air Force	138	600	4.3	5	--
2023	Air Force	68	493	7.2	2	--
Career		297	1,512	5.1	11	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2025

W 49–13

vs Bucknell

52 rush yds (11 car) · 1 TD

Dominant 36-point win at home against Bucknell.

With C. Harris — 66 rush yds (8 car) · 2 TD · J. Johnson — 112 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 80.1 · 5 rush yds (3 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 4 · Boise State · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +4.23Dylan Carson run for 64 yds to the BOIS 10 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Boise State · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA +2.54Dylan Carson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Medina KICK)
Week 12 · UConn · 1&6 · Q1 · EPA +2.05(04:53) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 6 yards gain to the UConn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 04:48 #96 R.Tubbs kick attempt good (H: #97 L.Freer, LS: #49 K.Chesney)
Week 12 · UConn · 2&8 · Q3 · EPA +1.87(10:35) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 14 yards gain to the AF41 (#7 M.McLean), 1ST DOWN
Week 8 · Wyoming · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +1.61Dylan Carson run for 23 yds to the AF 37 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Bucknell · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +1.52Dylan Carson run for 17 yds to the AF 42 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Bucknell · 3&3 · Q2 · EPA +1.46Dylan Carson run for 5 yds to the BUCK 2 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Boise State · 1&10 · Q1 · EPA +1.25Dylan Carson run for 9 yds to the AF 34
Week 11 · San José State · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA +1.25(03:33) #5 D.Carson rush middle for 8 yards gain to the SJSU43 (#9 N.McNeal-Franklin), 1ST DOWN
Week 12 · UConn · 1&2 · Q4 · EPA +1.21(02:30) No Huddle #5 D.Carson rush middle for 2 yards gain to the UConn00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:29 #4 K.Hodges pass attempt failed

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CAR	YDS	AVG	TD	LONG	Note
Wk 1	W 49-13vs Bucknell	11	52	4.7	1	17
Wk 3	L 30-49@ Utah State	8	53	6.6	0	17
Wk 4	L 37-49vs Boise State	16	109	6.8	1	64	Season-high 109 yds
Wk 5	L 35-44vs Hawai'i	5	11	2.2	0	6
Wk 6	L 31-34@ Navy	9	24	2.7	0	6
Wk 7	L 48-51@ UNLV	3	9	3.0	0	4
Wk 8	W 24-21vs Wyoming	4	31	7.8	0	23
Wk 10	L 17-20vs Army	1	4	4.0	0	4
Wk 11	W 26-16@ San José State	11	31	2.8	0	8
Wk 12	L 16-26@ UConn	11	58	5.3	2	14
Wk 13	L 3-20vs New Mexico	6	19	3.2	0	7
Wk 14	W 42-21@ Colorado State	6	18	3.0	0	4
Total		91	419	4.3	4	64