Joey Aguilar

#6 · QB · Sr. · Tennessee6′3″ · 225 lb · Antioch, CA

Joey Aguilar is a quarterback who has not played this season; the last season with a stat line was 2025, at Tennessee.

On Trialas of Nov 4

Joey Aguilar is on trial in Tennessee's fan jury — the eye test against the résumé.

PASS YDS · 2,500-YD CLUB

3,565

3565 passing yards — clears the 2,500-QB volume bar.

Tennessee fans keep putting the player's case on trial, week to week.

high confidence15 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority sees it the other way.

Read the story so far

Joey Aguilar arrived as a 3-star prospect, the No.129 recruit nationally. Joey Aguilar lines up at QB for Tennessee.

Tennessee fans keep putting the player's case on trial, week to week.

The number to watch: 3,565 — pass yds · 2,500-yd club.

AI-generated narrative · may contain errors · not journalism · updated 2026-11-04

Where to follow

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	272	404	67.3%	3,565	8.8	24	10	156.1	82
2024	App State	218	390	55.9%	3,002	7.7	23	14	132.8	65
2023	App State	292	459	63.6%	3,754	8.2	33	10	151.7	71
Career		782	1,253	62.4%	10,321	8.2	80	34	147.2	73

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	71	101	1.4	4	28
2024	App State	58	217	3.7	2	49
2023	App State	81	249	3.1	3	25
Career		210	567	2.7	9	49

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 45-26vs Syracuse	16/28	247	3	0	8.8	62.3	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 72-17vs East Tennessee State	23/31	288	2	0	9.3	74.4	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	L 41-44vs No. 6 Georgia	24/36	371	4	2	10.3	85.9	4 TD passes
Wk 4	W 56-24vs UAB	15/22	218	3	1	9.9	59.4	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 41-34@ Mississippi State	24/40	335	1	2	8.4	67.7
Wk 7	W 34-31vs Arkansas	16/25	221	1	0	8.8	74.9
Wk 8	L 20-37@ No. 6 Alabama	28/44	268	1	1	6.1	61.6
Wk 9	W 56-34@ Kentucky	20/26	396	3	0	15.2	95.3	Season-high 396 yds
Wk 10	L 27-33vs No. 18 Oklahoma	29/45	393	3	2	8.7	74.3	3 TD passes
Wk 12	W 42-9vs New Mexico State	17/23	204	1	2	8.9	76.0
Wk 13	W 31-11@ Florida	17/22	204	1	0	9.3	94.9
Wk 14	L 24-45vs No. 12 Vanderbilt	29/44	299	1	0	6.8	65.6
Bowl	L 28-30vs Illinois	14/18	121	0	0	6.7	64.4
Total		272/404	3565	24	10	8.8	—

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	at Kentucky	W 56-34 · Graded great · Carried by the third quarter · 396 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT · Rush 3 for -6 · Sacked 1
Lowest by our grade	Vanderbilt	L 24-45 · Graded shaky · 299 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT · Rush 8 for -15 · Sacked 3
Biggest game	at Alabama	No. 6 at kickoff · L 20-37 · Graded solid · Strong start, faded late · 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · Rush 8 for -20 · Sacked 3
Best play	Georgia	Completion, touchdown, Q3 0:07 · Win chance 32% to 54%
Costliest play	Oklahoma	Interception, Q2 3:41 · Win chance 75% to 51%

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

272/404 (67.3%) · 24 TD · 10 INT

393 of 404 attempts matched to play-by-play

158 of 393 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 393 passing plays (264 completions) against the box score's 404 attempts (272 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

8.2320 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

4.0%75 of 206 QBs

Rarely sacked (75 of 206 QBs) and still 20 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

21% of attempts (33)

88%comp

Air -2.3 · YAC 9.2 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

43% of attempts (68)

76%comp1 INT

Air 4.1 · YAC 5.4 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

20% of attempts (32)

59%comp

Air 13.4 · YAC 2.3 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

16% of attempts (25)

40%comp3 INT

Air 33.7 · YAC 7.8 avg

Overall 67.3% completion on 404 attempts · 40% completion on 25 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 48 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-33 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/148 (4.7%) · league sack rate 4.2%

Down 2

+7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/128 (3.1%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 3+

+48 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/85 (5.9%) · league sack rate 7.8%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2023App State9-5HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced

2024App State5-6HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced

2025Tennessee8-5HC: Josh Heupel · Balanced

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 78 (#18 of 146). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles · 2025 season

78All-Conference level #18 of 146 · 2025?

Bounce-Back13 metrics · season cumulative

2025 score: the 2026 sample is not big enough yet. The rows below are 2026 so far. Elite: epa / dropback (96th percentile). Strength: success rate (96th percentile). Concern: interceptions (14th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#8 / 183 · 96th pct

0.40

Success rate#8 / 183 · 96th pct

49.9%

Sack rate#57 / 183 · 69th pct

4.1%

Explosive rate#74 / 183 · 60th pct

9.7%

Interception rate#85 / 183 · 54th pct

2.0%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#12 / 183 · 93rd pct

3565

Yards / att#15 / 183 · 92nd pct

8.8

Completion %#26 / 183 · 86th pct

67.3%

Pass TDs#24 / 183 · 85th pct

Rush TDs#67 / 183 · 59th pct

Rush yards#104 / 183 · 43rd pct

101

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

Interceptions#153 / 183 · 14th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

61st → 96th percentile

Success rate

63rd → 96th percentile

Explosive rate

77th → 60th percentile

Sack rate

81st → 69th percentile

Interception rate

7th → 54th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps in 2025. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2025 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 357 dropbacks

82Zeitgeist Passer Rating8th of 142 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 156.1 17th of 142 FBS QBs

Positive-play rate weight 24%

52.4%92nd pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · -1.1% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

8.5293rd pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.3 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

4.7%66th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · +0.2% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (53 of 410 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	285	2.1	9.0	1.0
Road4g	301	1.5	9.8	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	257	2.0	8.9	0.7
Weeks 8+6g	294	1.7	9.2	0.8

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Josh Heupel

Pass share

47.3%

437 pass / 486 run

Plays / game

71.0

13 games

Scheme: Balanced.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

404 pass attempts and 71 carries in 13 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

78 · #18 of 146 QBs · 2025

Three-star recruit. Now #18 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-SEC

Based on 2025: #5 of 16 SEC QBs

How the All-SEC base rate is computed

A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 35% of returning players who ranked #4–10 at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 31–38%).