Heisman / Players / Joey Aguilar /Tennessee

Joey Aguilar

QB · Tennessee · Sr · #6

The Hope Economyas of 2026-06-22

Aguilar posted 3,565 passing yards and 24 touchdowns in 2025, then changed programs before 2026.

3,565PASS YDS24PASS TD101RUSH YDS

PASSING VALUE · WEPA

+0.47

via your WEPA model · 2025 · 396 plays

Tennessee fans overwhelmingly treated Aguilar as a long-term investment, convinced his ceiling outran his production — a belief that followed him out the door when he transferred ahead of 2026.

medium confidence2 sources

Minority viewA vocal minority argues the George MacIntyre clock was already ticking, and Aguilar's departure proved the fanbase's patience was thinner than the optimism suggested.

Read the story so far

Aguilar inherited the Tennessee job from Nico Iamaleava in 2025, finished with 3,565 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and a positive passing value of +0.47 WEPA, then moved on. His 80 career passing touchdowns put him among the most experienced returning quarterbacks in the country heading into 2026. The question now is whether a fresh program unlocks what Knoxville fans always insisted was there.

Somewhere, a four-star named MacIntyre is still waiting for a job that just got a lot harder to claim.

QB successioncontinuity

Inherited fromNico Iamaleava 5★
Pushed byGeorge MacIntyre 4★
How many games until George MacIntyre (4★) takes the job from Joey Aguilar?

Why nowHe changed programs heading into 2026 — a fresh fit to prove out.

season totals
via your WEPA model · 2025 · 396 plays
throne-line + Filling-the-Shoes
compiled from tagged fan discourse

AI narrative · updated 2026-06-22 · compiled from CFB Zeitgeist data

2026 RETURNINGReturning to Tennessee for 2026As of Jun 22, 2026

2026 Outlook

Returning to Tennessee for 2026

Updated May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Tennessee

Returning around him

22% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
5 Tennessee players drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -8 net (21 in / 29 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Tennessee · Last season: 8-5 (AP #18) · Talent rank #16 · 2026 recruiting class #11

QB · TENNESSEE · SEC

Joey Aguilar

4
#6
6-3 | 225 lb
Antioch, CA

CFB Zeitgeist Score

Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by yards / att at the 92nd percentile.

Heisman Heat

#1733

<1% win probability

Fan Belief

Awaiting

Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.

Respect Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

Reality Gap

Awaiting

Coming online with player-level FI.

ACCOLADE PROBABILITY

Heisman

<1%

TOP QB AWARD

Davey O'Brien

—

CONSENSUS

All-American

—

Player Standing · 17 rungs

Tier 2 · Starter

R07 · Impact starter

Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.

Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Aura™ · Him Watch the full board →

Hype = tape +1aura tax

Fans rank this player in the 96th percentile of QBs; the tape says 95th — the discourse is fair.

Aura — fan perception96th pctl

Production — on-field95th pctl

n=207 mentions · cohort: QBs · 160 qualified · perception = conversation volume, production = wepa_passing

Career arc · Season-by-season Standing

2 seasons on the ladder

Peak: R09 All-Conference HM / 2nd team · 2023

★

2023

App State · QB

R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team

Recognized

2025

Tennessee · QB

—

Development Trajectory · passing yards

2023–2025

3,7542023

3,5652025

-5%

Down 5% — context-dependent (injury / role change?).

Career Arc

Recruit

★★★

#115 national

CFB

College

2 teams

2023–2025

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted (yet)

Identity & Role

The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.

PositionQB

Class4

Jersey6

Measurements6-3 | 225 lb

HometownAntioch, CA

Primary teamTennessee

Recruiting Pedigree

How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.

Top pedigree 3-star No. 115 recruit

Composite rating 0.8400 JUCO

Signed with App State 2023

Origin Diablo Valley College Oakley, CA, USA

Class	Profile	Context
2023	3-star \| 0.8400	No. 115 recruit \| JUCO \| App State

Transfer Arc

Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.

Portal moves 1 Programs changed on file

Latest destination Tennessee 2025

Transfer stars 3-star CFBD transfer rating context

Eligibility Immediate Apr 21, 2025

Season	Move	Context
2025	UCLA -> Tennessee	3-star \| 0.8500 \| Immediate

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.

HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16

Current nowcast#1733Latest modeled ballot order

Season forecast#2032Where the full season sim points

Win probability0.0%Chance to actually win the trophy

Finalist probability0.0%Chance to make the finalist tier

Ballot probability0.0%Chance to appear anywhere on a ballot

Best official finish--Best completed Heisman placement on file

Heisman Futures

Not yet listed on major futures markets.

Achievements

Volume King 1.3%
Program Benchmark 5.5%

Selector Grid · 2025

AP—

FWAA—

AFCA—

WCFF—

SN—

SI—

Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.

NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft

Market value, pedigree & pro outcome

Recruit stars

★★★☆☆

to App State

Composite

0.8400

#115 national

Today’s Hot-Take

The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.

The contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.

Belief Meter

Grounded Optimism

Sample 198 mentions

Confidence HIGH

Top Take

Trajectory

Cohort divergence map

Own fans · n=198
National · n=18

No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.

2025 Signature · 2025 season

WEPA per dropback

+0.470

EPA

P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks

National rank #7 of 58

Percentile vs P4 + Notre Dame QBs, min 250 dropbacks 90th

Why it matters

#7 of 58 P4 + Notre Dame QBs by weighted EPA per dropback (min 250 dropbacks) — +0.470 EPA/play.

Vs cohort

This player +0.470 (90th)

HIGH · n=396 cohort 58

Also strong
Combined WEPA per play (pass + rush)#7 / 57
Total weighted-EPA passing#11 / 58
Yards per attempt#8 / 72

Signature Moment

No signature moment on the ledger yet.

Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.

A 3-act season arc returns once this player has six or more games on the ledger.

Season Pace · Projection

Where the passing totals stand

final

Through 13g

3,565Pass yards

24Pass TDs

10INT

Per game

274.2Pass yards

2Pass TDs

1INT

Final

3,565Pass yards

24Pass TDs

10INT

✓ Hit 3,000-yard season · finished with 3,565.

Why the honors trail matters

The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.

The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Joey Aguilar already has 2 loaded recognition items, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.

Current place #1733 0.0% win | 0.0% finalist

Role load 49.1% Overall usage share

Profile quirk Transfer path 1 portal move

2025 Season · Final

Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.

Last season

QB season snapshot

2025 season snapshot | final

2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level

Pass yards 3,565 24 TD | 10 INT | #12/382 (97th pct)

Completion rate 67.3% 272/404 completions | #90/383 (77th pct)

Yards/attempt 8.8 Explosiveness through the air | #56/382 (86th pct)

Player identity What kind of player is this?

30-second read

What kind of player is this?

High-volume passer | Efficient | Vertical threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.

High-volume passerEfficientVertical threat

Passing Efficiency

CMP

272 94th

ATT

404 95th

CMP%

67.3% 77th

Y/A

8.8 86th

Passing Production

YDS

3,565 97th

24 94th

INT

10 8th

Rushing

CAR

71 79th

YDS

101 67th

YPC

1.4 31st

4 82nd

Game Log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 45-26vs Syracuse	16/28	247	3	0	8.8	62.3	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 72-17vs East Tennessee State	23/31	288	2	0	9.3	74.4	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	L 41-44vs Georgia	24/36	371	4	2	10.3	85.9	4 TD passes
Wk 4	W 56-24vs UAB	15/22	218	3	1	9.9	59.4	3 TD passes
Wk 5	W 41-34@ Mississippi State	24/40	335	1	2	8.4	67.7
Wk 7	W 34-31vs Arkansas	16/25	221	1	0	8.8	74.9
Wk 8	L 20-37@ Alabama	28/44	268	1	1	6.1	61.6
Wk 9	W 56-34@ Kentucky	20/26	396	3	0	15.2	95.3	Season-high 396 yds
Wk 10	L 27-33vs Oklahoma	29/45	393	3	2	8.7	74.3	3 TD passes
Wk 12	W 42-9vs New Mexico State	17/23	204	1	2	8.9	76.0
Wk 13	W 31-11@ Florida	17/22	204	1	0	9.3	94.9
Wk 14	L 24-45vs Vanderbilt	29/44	299	1	0	6.8	65.6
Bowl	L 28-30@ Illinois	14/18	121	0	0	6.7	64.4
Total		272/404	3565	24	10	9.0	73.6

Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score

Traditional history

Traditional Stats

Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.

Season rows Career row

Season context · Team result + system

2023App State9-5HC: Shawn Clark · Balanced

2025Tennessee8-5HC: Josh Heupel · Balanced

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	272	404	67.3%	3,565	8.8	24	10	156.1	--	--
2023	App State	292	459	63.6%	3,754	8.2	33	10	151.7	--	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	564	863	65.4%	7,319	8.5	57	20	153.8	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Tennessee	71	101	1.4	4	--
2023	App State	81	249	3.1	3	--
Career	2 loaded seasons	152	350	2.3	7	--

Advanced layer Usage, value, and context

Advanced metrics second

Advanced Metrics

Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.

Usage Value Context

Passing WEPA

Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.

Role share

How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.

Peer percentile

Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.

Traditional first

The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.

Rush impact 101 4 rush TD | #135/408 (67th pct)

Usage 49.1% 91.0% pass share | 10.5% rush share | #90/428 (79th pct)

Passing WEPA +0.47 Opponent-adjusted passing value | #8/200 (96th pct)

Open full stat explorer

Group	Metric	Value	Rank	Pct	Why it matters
Passing	Passing yards	3,565	#12/382	97th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Pass TD	24	#24/407	94th pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Passing	Completions	272	#23/383	94th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Completion %	67.3%	#90/383	77th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Passing	Yards / attempt	8.8	#56/382	86th pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing yards	101	#135/408	67th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Value	Passing WEPA	+0.47	#8/200	96th pct	Opponent-adjusted passing value \| 396 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Usage	Role share	49.1%	#90/428	79th pct	Share of team offensevs FBS QB
Passing	Attempts	404	#22/407	95th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Passing	Interceptions	10	#377/407	8th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB
Rushing	Carries	71	#88/408	79th pct	Volumevs FBS QB
Rushing	Rushing LONG	28	#117/391	70th pct	Metricvs FBS QB
Rushing	Rush TD	4	#74/408	82nd pct	Scoringvs FBS QB
Rushing	Yards / carry	1.4	#283/407	31st pct	Efficiencyvs FBS QB
Usage	Pass share	91.0%	#51/428	88th pct	Air-game usagevs FBS QB
Usage	Passing-down usage	64.1%	#85/428	80th pct	Known-passing sharevs FBS QB
Usage	3rd-down usage	60.4%	#98/428	77th pct	Money-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	2nd-down usage	49.7%	#83/428	81st pct	Middle-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	1st-down usage	44.1%	#76/428	82nd pct	Early-down loadvs FBS QB
Usage	Standard-down usage	43.6%	#88/428	80th pct	Base-situation sharevs FBS QB
Usage	Rush share	10.5%	#151/428	65th pct	Ground-game usagevs FBS QB
Value	Rushing WEPA	+0.25	#70/140	51st pct	Opponent-adjusted rushing value \| 52 weighted playsvs FBS QB
Ball Security	Fumbles lost	3	#213/258	18th pct	Turnoversvs FBS QB

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION

On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex

AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16

Why he’s here

Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.

What moves him up

What moves him down

Accolade streams

Status—Awaiting tracker

Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Win/Loss · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	280	2.2	8.9	0.9
Road5g	265	1.2	9.1	0.6

Win vs Loss

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Wins8g	264	1.9	9.8	0.6
Losses5g	290	1.8	7.7	1.0

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-77g	257	2.0	8.9	0.7
Weeks 8+6g	294	1.7	9.2	0.8

Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.

Savant · Box-rate percentiles

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

70Solid starter

8 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (93rd). Strength: yards / att (91st). Concern: interceptions (14th).

Pass yards#12 / 183 · 93rd pct

3565pass

Yards / att#15 / 183 · 92nd pct

8.8pass

Completion %#26 / 183 · 86th pct

67.3%pass

Pass TDs#24 / 183 · 85th pct

24pass

Rush TDs#67 / 183 · 59th pct

4rush

Rush yards#104 / 183 · 43rd pct

101rush

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

3fumb

Interceptions#153 / 183 · 14th pct

10pass

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.

Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)

Where the throws are landing

141/218 (64.7%) · 15 TD · 4 INT

Short

0–9 yds

44%of completions

62 comp5.7 yds avg4 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

38%of completions

54 comp14.2 yds avg4 TD

Deep

20+ yds

18%of completions

25 comp34.7 yds avg7 TD

Overall 64.7% completion on 218 attempts · 25 deep completions averaging 34.7 yds.

EPA / dropback0.470

92th pct

CPOE—

awaiting

Success rate—

awaiting

Explosive rate (20+)—

awaiting

aDOT—

awaiting

Deep-ball accuracy—

awaiting

Pressure-to-sack—

awaiting

3rd-down EPA—

awaiting

Red-zone TD rate—

awaiting

Play-action EPA—

awaiting

Scramble EPA—

awaiting

Turnover-worthy play rate—

awaiting

wepa_passing0.47Elite (≥p90) (n=94)Elite (≥p90) (n=106)Elite (≥p90) (n=200)

wepa_rushing0.25Low (p25–p50) (n=72)Mid (p50–p75) (n=68)Mid (p50–p75) (n=140)

Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match

Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile

3 peers · 8 metrics

Joey AguilarTennesseeKevin JenningsSMU· 92% simDante MooreOregon· 88% simCJ BaileyNC State· 86% sim

Pass yards

93
Aguilar

95
Jennings

93
Moore

83
Bailey

Yards / att

92
Aguilar

78
Jennings

91
Moore

73
Bailey

Completion %

86
Aguilar

78
Jennings

98
Moore

91
Bailey

Pass TDs

85
Aguilar

91
Jennings

96
Moore

89
Bailey

Rush TDs

59
Aguilar

59
Jennings

39
Moore

74
Bailey

Rush yards

43
Aguilar

34
Jennings

57
Moore

62
Bailey

Fumbles lost

18
Aguilar

18
Jennings

38
Moore

38
Bailey

Interceptions

14
Aguilar

2
Jennings

14
Moore

22
Bailey

Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.

Player DNA

The Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system. Profile sits near league average across dimensions.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Kenny Pickett’s 2021 season.

Kenny Pickett

68%match

Pittsburgh · 2021

Unitas Golden Arm1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20

Clayton Tune

Houston · 2021

NFL Rd 5

68%

Joey Aguilar

App State · 2023

All-Sun Belt

67%

Carson Beck

Miami · 2025

All-ACCNFL Rd 3 · Pk 1

67%

Jack Coan

Notre Dame · 2021

65%

Matches Kenny on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Yards / attempt

Differs from Kenny on

INT rate (higher)

TD rate (lower)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Ian Book’s path through Notre Dame.

Ian Book

89%match

Notre Dame · 2020

All-ACCNFL Rd 4

Tanner Morgan

Minnesota · 2022

84%

Brock Domann

Louisville · 2022

84%

Dylan Rizk

UCF · 2024

82%

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh · 2021

Unitas Golden Arm1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20

81%

Matches Ian on

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Carter Bradley's junior season at South Alabama (2022).

Carter Bradley

62%match

South Alabama · 2022

All-Sun Belt

Jayden Maiava

USC · 2025

All-Big Ten

60%

Tanner Mordecai

SMU · 2022

All-AAC

59%

Sean Clifford

Penn State · 2022

NFL Rd 5

59%

Sawyer Robertson

Baylor · 2024

59%

Matches Carter on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

INT rate

Differs from Carter on

Yards / attempt (higher)

Weight (higher)

Completion % (higher)

Supporting Cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Josh Heupel

Pass share

47.3%

437 pass / 486 run

Plays / game

71.0

13 games

OL sack rate (allowed)

5.4%

334 dropbacks · PBP

Scheme: Balanced.

Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025

1 coach

2023

Josh Heupel

Tennessee

2025

Josh Heupel

Tennessee

Played his entire career under Josh Heupel.

HometownAntioch, CA

Height6'3"

Weight225 lb

Class4

PositionQB

Jersey6

Trophy Case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

2 entries

🎖

ALL-CONFERENCE

All-Conf mention (2024)

All-Sun Belt

Trophy Case · Detail

Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.

All-Conference

2 all-conference honors

Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.

Honors Timeline

Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.

Season	Honor	Scope	Team / Selector	Context
2024	All-Sun Belt	all_conference	Sun Belt	QB
2023	All-Sun Belt	all_conference	Sun Belt	QB

Heisman By Year

Modeled rank and official finish by season.

Season	Team	Role	Latest Model	Forecast	Win	Finalist	Official Finish	Points	Context
2024	App State	QB4	#1733	#2032	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W16 snapshot \| Sun Belt
2023	App State	QB4	#73	#98	0.0%	0.0%	--	--	W19 snapshot \| Sun Belt

Roster Timeline

Team, conference, and class by season.

Season	Team	Conference	Pos	Class	Bio
2025	Tennessee	SEC	QB	4	No. 6 \| 6-3 \| 225 lb \| Antioch, CA
2024	App State	Sun Belt	QB	4	No. 6 \| 6-3 \| 225 lb \| Antioch, CA
2023	App State	Sun Belt	QB	4	No. 6 \| 6-3 \| 225 lb \| Antioch, CA

Joey Aguilar

R07 · Impact starter

-5%

Identity & Role

Recruiting Pedigree

Transfer Arc

Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final

The Room on Joey Aguilar

How rival fanbases talk about Joey Aguilar

WEPA per dropback

Why the honors trail matters

2025 Season · Final

QB season snapshot

What kind of player is this?

2025 Season · Final

Traditional Stats

Advanced Metrics

Player Standing

Percentile Card

Advanced Savant

The Pocket Passer

Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster

Trophy Case · Detail

2 all-conference honors

Honors Timeline

Heisman By Year

Roster Timeline