CFB Zeitgeist Score
91
Elite in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 93rd percentile.
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
130 TACKLES · 4 SACKS
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Buffalo2026 NFL rookie season
#126Rd 4 · Pick 26
Buffalo2026 NFL rookie season
LB · TCU · BIG 12
Kaleb Elarms-Orr
- 4
- #3
- 6-2 | 235 lb
- Hayward, CA
Heisman Heat
#9066
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP LB AWARD
Butkus
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
R4 · #126
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8896 | No. 404 recruit | HighSchool | California |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | California -> TCU | 4-star | 0.9000 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to California
Composite
0.8896
#404 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 4, Pick 26
#126 overall · Buffalo
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Kaleb Elarms-Orr
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Kaleb Elarms-Orr
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 13g
130Tackles
11Tackles for loss
4Sacks
Per game
10Tackles
0.8Tackles for loss
0.3Sacks
Final
130Tackles
11Tackles for loss
4Sacks
✓ Hit 80-tackle season · finished with 130.
✓ Hit 100-tackle season · finished with 130.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Kaleb Elarms-Orr is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on TCU's defense, with 4.0 sacks, 11.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
130 100th
SOLO
60 100th
TFL
11.0 99th
SACK
4.0 97th
QBH
6 94th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
2 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 13 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 48-14@ North Carolina | 3 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 42-21vs Abilene Christian | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 35-24vs SMU | 8 | 6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 5 | L 24-27@ Arizona State | 13 | 8 | 2.0 | 2.0 | — | 1 | 2 sacks |
| Wk 6 | W 35-21vs Colorado | 9 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 28-41@ Kansas State | 8 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 42-36vs Baylor | 16 | 5 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | Season-high 16 tackles |
| Wk 9 | W 23-17@ West Virginia | 16 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 11 | L 17-20vs Iowa State | 12 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 13-44@ BYU | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 17-14@ Houston | 15 | 10 | 2.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 45-23vs Cincinnati | 5 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | W 30-27vs USC | 11 | 3 | 1.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 130 | 60 | 11.0 | 4.0 | — | 2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023California6-7HC: Justin Wilcox · Run-leaning
2024TCU9-4HC: Sonny Dykes · Pass-leaning
2025TCU9-4HC: Sonny Dykes · Balanced
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TCU | 130 | 60 | 11.0 | 4.0 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | TCU | 54 | 26 | 4.5 | 2.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | California | 87 | 49 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 271 | 135 | 18.5 | 7.0 | 8 | 1 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 130 | #7/4942 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 11.0 | #74/4972 | 99th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 4.0 | #169/4972 | 97th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 2 | #792/2184 | 64th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 6 | #117/1878 | 94th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 60 | #21/4584 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 9.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| Road6g | 10.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 10.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Losses4g | 10.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 8.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 11.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort
91Elite
Elite: tackles (99th). Strength: solo tackles (99th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · LB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Kaleb Elarms-OrrTCUMac HarrisSouth Florida· 97% simKeyshaun ElliottArizona State· 96% simMani PowellPurdue· 94% sim
Tackles
Solo tackles
Tackles for loss
QB hurries
Sacks
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Every-Down Linebacker
Leads the team in tackles and rarely leaves the field.
LB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jett Johnson’s 2023 season.
Jett Johnson
79%match
#2
Wayne Matthews III
All-Sun Belt
78%
#3
Jackson Mitchell
77%
#4
Ray Coney
76%
#5
Caden Fordham
All-ACC
76%
Matches Jett on
PD rate
Sack rate
TFL rate
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Wayne Matthews III's junior season at Old Dominion (2023).
Wayne Matthews III
90%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Austin Ajiake
All-Mountain West
86%
#3
Shaun Dolac
Consensus All-American
82%
#4
Cedric Gray
All-ACCNFL Rd 4
82%
#5
Ayinde Eley
79%
Matches Wayne on
Sack rate
PD rate
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sonny Dykes
Pass share
51.9%
460 pass / 426 run
Plays / game
68.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
5.6%
340 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Sonny Dykes
TCU
2024
Sonny Dykes
TCU
2025
Sonny Dykes
TCU
Played his entire career under Sonny Dykes.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownHayward, CA
Height6'2"
Weight235 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey3
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTCU
ConferenceBig 12
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | TCU | LB4 | #9066 | #9624 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big 12 |
| 2023 | California | LB4 | #10489 | #10828 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2022 | California | LB4 | #13521 | #13536 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | California | LB4 | #12129 | #12063 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | TCU | Big 12 | LB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Hayward, CA |
| 2024 | TCU | Big 12 | LB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Hayward, CA |
| 2023 | California | Pac-12 | LB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Hayward, CA |
| 2022 | California | Pac-12 | LB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Hayward, CA |
| 2021 | California | Pac-12 | LB | 4 | No. 3 | 6-2 | 235 lb | Hayward, CA |