CFB Zeitgeist Score
33
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 87th percentile.
Kiael Kelly
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
1,560 PASS YDS · 10 PASS TD · 608 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Ball State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Ball State
Returning around him
- 8% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +6 net (24 in / 18 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Ball State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #115 · 2026 recruiting class #119
QB · BALL STATE · MID-AMERICAN
Kiael Kelly
- 4
- #1
- 6-2 | 186 lb
- Tampa, FL
Heisman Heat
#2011
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025+6683%
Up 6683% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Ball State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8604 | No. 915 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State -> -- | 3-star | Withdrawn |
| 2024 | Ball State -> -- | 3-star | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (608).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8604
#915 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Kiael Kelly
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
75
Grounded Optimism
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
- National · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Kiael Kelly
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 12g
1,560Pass yards
10Pass TDs
8INT
Per game
130Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
1,690Pass yards
11Pass TDs
9INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 1,560): needs 1,440/game over remaining 1.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 1,560): needs 2,440/game over remaining 1.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 15/game over remaining 1.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 20/game over remaining 1.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 10): needs 25/game over remaining 1.
Why this is a two-channel quarterback case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The unusual part of Kiael Kelly's case is that the production comes in two channels, not one. For Ball State, he has 1,560 passing yards and 10 touchdown passes, but he also adds 608 rushing yards and 5 rushing scores. That kind of dual-threat load tends to create a more resilient Heisman case because the offense can tilt the game in multiple ways.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Dual-threat against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
153 74th
ATT
272 77th
CMP%
56.3% 30th
Y/A
5.7 25th
Passing Production
YDS
1,560 72nd
TD
10 74th
INT
8 17th
Rushing
CAR
211 100th
YDS
608 94th
YPC
2.9 53rd
TD
5 86th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 0-31@ Purdue | 10/16 | 87 | 0 | 0 | 5.4 | 17.3 | |
| Wk 2 | L 3-42@ Auburn | 10/16 | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4.4 | 9.6 | |
| Wk 3 | W 34-29vs New Hampshire | 9/15 | 105 | 2 | 1 | 7.0 | 77.4 | |
| Wk 4 | L 25-31@ UConn | 17/24 | 209 | 1 | 1 | 8.7 | 38.6 | Season-high 209 yds |
| Wk 6 | W 20-14vs Ohio | 17/33 | 185 | 1 | 0 | 5.6 | 57.4 | |
| Wk 7 | L 0-42@ Western Michigan | 13/22 | 68 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 22.6 | |
| Wk 8 | W 42-28vs Akron | 10/19 | 121 | 1 | 1 | 6.4 | 47.0 | |
| Wk 9 | L 7-21@ Northern Illinois | 10/23 | 136 | 1 | 2 | 5.9 | 34.6 | |
| Wk 11 | W 17-13vs Kent State | 17/29 | 173 | 2 | 0 | 6.0 | 14.2 | |
| Wk 12 | L 9-24vs Eastern Michigan | 13/22 | 62 | 0 | 1 | 2.8 | 9.4 | |
| Wk 13 | L 9-38@ Toledo | 13/30 | 166 | 0 | 2 | 5.5 | 7.0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 24-45@ Miami (OH) | 14/23 | 177 | 2 | 0 | 7.7 | 39.7 | |
| Total | 153/272 | 1560 | 10 | 8 | 5.7 | 31.2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Ball State5-7HC: Mike Neu · Balanced
2023Ball State4-8HC: Mike Neu · Run-heavy
2025Ball State4-8HC: Mike Uremovich · Run-heavy, slow tempo
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | 153 | 272 | 56.2% | 1,560 | 5.7 | 10 | 8 | 110.7 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Ball State | 66 | 124 | 53.2% | 577 | 4.7 | 2 | 3 | 92.8 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Ball State | 1 | 1 | 100.0% | 23 | 23.0 | 0 | 0 | 293.2 | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 220 | 397 | 55.4% | 2,160 | 5.4 | 12 | 11 | 105.6 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | 211 | 608 | 2.9 | 5 | -- |
| 2023 | Ball State | 134 | 723 | 5.4 | 7 | -- |
| 2022 | Ball State | 8 | 83 | 10.4 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 353 | 1,414 | 4.0 | 12 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 1,560 | #109/382 | 72nd pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 10 | #105/407 | 74th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 153 | #102/383 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 56.3% | #269/383 | 30th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 5.7 | #286/382 | 25th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 608 | #24/408 | 94th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.05 | #197/200 | 2nd pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 301 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 63.7% | #6/428 | 99th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 272 | #94/407 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 8 | #339/407 | 17th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 211 | #3/408 | 100th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 56 | #35/391 | 91st pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 5 | #59/408 | 86th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 2.9 | #193/407 | 53rd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 98.6% | #3/428 | 100th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 84.6% | #2/428 | 100th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 78.1% | #8/428 | 98th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 59.8% | #21/428 | 95th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 55.7% | #11/428 | 98th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 53.7% | #13/428 | 97th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 37.2% | #6/428 | 99th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.21 | #90/140 | 36th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 153 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 4 | #237/258 | 9th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 129 | 1.2 | 5.6 | 0.6 |
| Road7g | 131 | 0.6 | 5.8 | 0.7 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 146 | 1.5 | 6.2 | 0.5 |
| Losses8g | 122 | 0.5 | 5.4 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 121 | 0.7 | 5.7 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 139 | 1.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
33Below cohort
Elite: rush yards (87th). Concern: fumbles lost (8th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds59%of completions
48 comp4.7 yds avg
Middle
10–19 yds28%of completions
23 comp12.9 yds avg2 TD
Deep
20+ yds12%of completions
10 comp31.7 yds avg2 TD
Overall 57.4% completion on 141 attempts · 10 deep completions averaging 31.7 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Concerns: EPA / dropback.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.05Below (<p25) (n=94)
wepa_rushing0.21Low (p25–p50) (n=72)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Kiael KellyBall StateRyan BrownePurdue· 85% simMalik WashingtonMaryland· 78% simBen FinleyAkron· 75% sim
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Pass yards
Pass TDs
Interceptions
Completion %
Yards / att
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Scrambler
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Cam Fancher’s 2022 season.
Cam Fancher
75%match
#2
Logan Smothers
66%
#3
Jiya Wright
61%
#4
Noah Vedral
61%
#5
Mike Wright
60%
Matches Cam on
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Completion %
Differs from Cam on
Rush usage (higher)
Weight (lower)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jake Lange’s path through Southern Miss.
Jake Lange
96%match
#2
Will Plummer
87%
#3
Trae Self
86%
#4
Justin Miller
84%
#5
Brandon Rose
82%
Matches Jake on
Height
Yards per attempt
Completion %
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Mike Wright's senior season at Mississippi State (2023).
Mike Wright
58%match
#2
Payton Thorne
36%
#3
Logan Fife
34%
#4
Brennan Armstrong
All-ACC
33%
#5
Ashton Daniels
All-ACC
33%
Differs from Mike on
Height (lower)
EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)
Rush yards / carry (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Uremovich
Pass share
38.2%
277 pass / 449 run
Plays / game
60.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
19.6%
265 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Mike Neu
Ball State
2023
Mike Neu
Ball State
2025era →
Mike Uremovich
Ball State
Coaching transition mid-career: Mike Neu → Mike Uremovich. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTampa, FL
Height6'2"
Weight186 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey1
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBall State
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ball State | QB4 | #2011 | #2475 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Ball State | QB4 | #875 | #1095 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2022 | Ball State | QB4 | #888 | #1027 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mid-American |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ball State | Mid-American | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 186 lb | Tampa, FL |
| 2024 | Ball State | Mid-American | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 186 lb | Tampa, FL |
| 2023 | Ball State | Mid-American | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 186 lb | Tampa, FL |
| 2022 | Ball State | Mid-American | QB | 4 | No. 1 | 6-2 | 186 lb | Tampa, FL |