Kiael Kelly

#1 · QB · Sr. · Ball State6′2″ · 186 lb · Tampa, FL · Gaither

Kiael Kelly is a quarterback who has not played this season; the last season with a stat line was 2025, at Ball State.

Kelly extends plays on the move until something opens up. The four seasons at Ball State span two head coaches: Mike Neu and Mike Uremovich. A game that shows it: 209 passing yards and 27 rushing yards against UConn — Week 4, 2025.

Where to follow

Career stats

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Season	Team
2025	Ball State	153	272	56.2%	1,560	5.7	10	8	110.7	5
2024	Ball State	2	4	50.0%	8	2.0	0	0	66.8	--
2023	Ball State	66	124	53.2%	577	4.7	2	3	92.8	22
2022	Ball State	1	1	100.0%	23	23.0	0	0	293.2	--
Career		222	401	55.4%	2,168	5.4	12	11	105.2	10

Season	Team
2025	Ball State	211	608	2.9	5	56
2024	Ball State	35	91	2.6	1	24
2023	Ball State	134	723	5.4	7	55
2022	Ball State	8	83	10.4	0	40
Career		388	1,505	3.9	13	56

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Swipe the table sideways for more columns.

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 0-31@ Purdue	10/16	87	0	0	5.4	17.3
Wk 2	L 3-42@ Auburn	10/16	71	0	0	4.4	9.6
Wk 3	W 34-29vs New Hampshire	9/15	105	2	1	7.0	77.4
Wk 4	L 25-31@ UConn	17/24	209	1	1	8.7	38.6	Season-high 209 yds
Wk 6	W 20-14vs Ohio	17/33	185	1	0	5.6	57.4
Wk 7	L 0-42@ Western Michigan	13/22	68	0	0	3.1	22.6
Wk 8	W 42-28vs Akron	10/19	121	1	1	6.4	47.0
Wk 9	L 7-21@ Northern Illinois	10/23	136	1	2	5.9	34.6
Wk 11	W 17-13vs Kent State	17/29	173	2	0	6.0	14.2
Wk 12	L 9-24vs Eastern Michigan	13/22	62	0	1	2.8	9.4
Wk 13	L 9-38@ Toledo	13/30	166	0	2	5.5	7.0
Wk 14	L 24-45@ Miami (OH)	14/23	177	2	0	7.7	39.7
Total		153/272	1560	10	8	5.7	—

Highs and lows

Only games with 20 or more plays count for best and lowest.
Best by our grade	at UConn	L 25-31 · Graded solid · 209 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT · Rush 12 for 27 · Sacked 4
Lowest by our grade	at Toledo	L 9-38 · Graded rough · 166 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT · Rush 18 for 10 · Interceptions cost about 8 points of win chance · Sacked 6
Best play	Kent State	Completion for 29 yards, touchdown, Q4 1:53 · Win chance 40% to 73%

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

153/272 (56.2%) · 10 TD · 8 INT

267 of 272 attempts matched to play-by-play

124 of 267 attempts charted for true throw depth

Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 267 passing plays (148 completions) against the box score's 272 attempts (153 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.

Adjusted ANY/A

3.62190 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

14.2%206 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 14.2% of dropbacks (206 of 206) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (190 of 206).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

18% of attempts (22)

82%comp

Air -3.6 · YAC 6.7 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

42% of attempts (52)

60%comp1 INT

Air 4.4 · YAC 5.7 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

26% of attempts (32)

34%comp2 INT

Air 13.9 · YAC 3.6 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

15% of attempts (18)

28%comp2 INT

Air 28.7 · YAC 3.2 avg

Overall 56.2% completion on 272 attempts · 28% completion on 18 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 20 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-20 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 13/85 (15.3%) · league sack rate 4.2%

Down 2

+1 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/91 (13.2%) · league sack rate 4.5%

Down 3+

+16 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 17/101 (16.8%) · league sack rate 7.8%

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Teams and coaches

2022Ball State5-7HC: Mike Neu · Balanced

2023Ball State4-8HC: Mike Neu · Run-heavy

2024Ball State3-9HC: Mike Neu · Balanced

2025Ball State4-8HC: Mike Uremovich · Run-heavy, slow tempo

Our ratings

CFB Zeitgeist Score 24 (#135 of 146). Show the ratings

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles · 2025 season

24Below cohort / limited sample #135 of 146 · 2025?

13 metrics · season cumulative

2025 score: the 2026 sample is not big enough yet. The rows below are 2026 so far. Elite: rush yards (87th percentile). Concern: sack rate (1st percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#152 / 183 · 17th pct

6.7%

Interception rate#155 / 183 · 15th pct

3.4%

EPA / dropback#175 / 183 · 5th pct

-0.07

Success rate#175 / 183 · 5th pct

29.8%

Sack rate#182 / 183 · 1st pct

14.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#24 / 183 · 87th pct

608

Rush TDs#53 / 183 · 68th pct

Pass yards#109 / 183 · 41st pct

1560

Pass TDs#105 / 183 · 40th pct

Interceptions#115 / 183 · 32nd pct

Completion %#156 / 183 · 14th pct

56.3%

Yards / att#168 / 183 · 8th pct

5.7

Fumbles lost#154 / 174 · 8th pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps in 2025. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Zeitgeist Passer Rating

2025 · our own passing-efficiency number, shown next to the 1979 formula it does not replace.

After 276 dropbacks

5Zeitgeist Passer Rating142nd of 142 FBS QBs

NCAA passer rating 110.7 137th of 142 FBS QBs

Positive-play rate weight 24%

34.9%1st pct of FBS QBs

share of dropbacks that gained expected points · +0.5% schedule adj.

Yards per attempt weight 56%

5.072nd pct of FBS QBs

sacks excluded · -0.2 schedule adj.

Sack rate weight 21% (penalty)

14.6%0th pct of FBS QBs

the input passer rating cannot see · -0.6% schedule adj.

Opponent-adjusted; garbage time excluded (36 of 312 dropbacks dropped). 50 = FBS average; the number is pulled toward 50 when the sample is thin. How ZPR is built.

Splits

Home and road splits, scheme and staff

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	129	1.2	5.6	0.6
Road7g	131	0.6	5.8	0.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	121	0.7	5.7	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	139	1.0	5.7	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2025 season

Head Coach

Mike Uremovich

Pass share

38.2%

277 pass / 449 run

Plays / game

60.5

12 games

Scheme: Run-heavy, slow tempo.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

272 pass attempts, 211 carries and 1 catch in 12 games, more passes and runs a game than most FBS quarterbacks who play every week.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score

24 · #135 of 146 QBs · 2025

Three-star recruit. Now #135 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-MAC

Based on 2025: #10 of 12 Mid-American QBs

How the All-MAC base rate is computed

A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 35% of returning players who ranked #4–10 at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 31–38%).