CFB Zeitgeist Score
81
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 85th percentile.
Marco Notarainni
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
77 TACKLES · 2.5 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Boise State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Linebacker · Boise State
Returning around him
- 58% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Boise State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (11 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Boise State · Last season: 9-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #81 · 2026 recruiting class #62
LB · BOISE STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Marco Notarainni
- 4
- #53
- 6-3 | 238 lb
- San Diego, CA
Heisman Heat
#7911
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP LB AWARD
Butkus
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
3 seasons on the ladder
2022
Boise State · LB
—
2023
Boise State · LB
—
★
2025
Boise State · LB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Boise State
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8467 | No. 1284 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8467
#1284 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Marco Notarainni
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Marco Notarainni
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 14g
77Tackles
6Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Per game
6Tackles
0.4Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Final
77Tackles
6Tackles for loss
2.5Sacks
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Marco Notarainni is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Boise State's defense, with 2.5 sacks, 6.0 tackles for loss, and -- interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender | High-volume tackler against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
77 96th
SOLO
51 99th
TFL
6.0 92nd
SACK
2.5 92nd
QBH
8 98th
Coverage & Takeaways
PD
2 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 14 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-34@ South Florida | 7 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | W 51-14vs Eastern Washington | 6 | 3 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 49-37@ Air Force | 10 | 8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 10 tackles |
| Wk 5 | W 47-14vs App State | 6 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-28@ Notre Dame | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | W 41-25vs New Mexico | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 8 | W 56-31vs UNLV | 6 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-3@ Nevada | 5 | 5 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 10 | L 7-30vs Fresno State | 4 | 3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 12 | L 7-17@ San Diego State | 8 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 49-21vs Colorado State | 4 | 4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | W 25-24@ Utah State | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 1 | |
| Wk 15 | W 38-21vs UNLV | 6 | 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Bowl | L 10-38@ Washington | 8 | 4 | 1.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 77 | 51 | 6.0 | 2.5 | — | 2 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Boise State10-4HC: Andy Avalos · Run-leaning
2023Boise State8-6HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-heavy
2025Boise State9-5HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 77 | 51 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 2 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 47 | 25 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Boise State | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 3 loaded seasons | 126 | 77 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 3 | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 77 | #179/4942 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 6.0 | #406/4972 | 92nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 2.5 | #393/4972 | 92nd pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Pass breakups | 2 | #792/2184 | 64th pct | Coveragevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 8 | #41/1878 | 98th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 51 | #61/4584 | 99th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Fumbles recovered | 1 | #103/736 | 86th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 0 | #1/773 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Butkus award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 14 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.9 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Road7g | 6.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Losses5g | 6.2 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 6.1 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 4.9 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the LB cohort
81All-Conference
Elite: qb hurries (98th). Strength: solo tackles (97th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · LB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Marco NotarainniBoise StateMac HarrisSouth Florida· 95% simRay ConeyTulsa· 94% simKaleb Elarms-OrrTCU· 93% sim
QB hurries
Solo tackles
Tackles
Sacks
Tackles for loss
Passes defended
Forced fumbles
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Every-Down Linebacker
Leads the team in tackles and rarely leaves the field.
LB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Ryan Selig’s 2022 season.
Ryan Selig
87%match
#2
Justin Wright
85%
#3
Geoff Cantin-Arku
82%
#4
Merlin Robertson
82%
#5
Penei Pavihi
81%
Matches Ryan on
Height
TFL rate
Tackle volume
Differs from Ryan on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Geoff Cantin-Arku's senior season at Memphis (2023).
Geoff Cantin-Arku
89%match
#2
Jimmy Rolder
All-Big TenNFL Rd 4
86%
#3
Cole Kozlowski
85%
#4
Connor Shay
85%
#5
Alan Tisdale
85%
Matches Geoff on
PD rate
Weight
Tackle volume
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
46.6%
472 pass / 540 run
Plays / game
72.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
358 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Andy Avalos
Boise State
2023era →
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
2025
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
Coaching transition mid-career: Andy Avalos → Spencer Danielson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSan Diego, CA
Height6'3"
Weight238 lb
Class4
PositionLB
Jersey53
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBoise State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Mountain West
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
2 all-conference honors
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Mountain West | all_conference | Boise State | Mountain West | LB |
| 2024 | All-Mountain West | all_conference | Boise State | Mountain West | LB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boise State | LB4 | #7911 | #7771 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Boise State | LB4 | #8740 | #9116 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Boise State | LB4 | #9827 | #9384 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | Mountain West | LB | 4 | No. 53 | 6-3 | 238 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | LB | 4 | No. 53 | 6-3 | 238 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2023 | Boise State | Mountain West | LB | 4 | No. 53 | 6-3 | 238 lb | San Diego, CA |
| 2022 | Boise State | Mountain West | LB | 4 | No. 53 | 6-3 | 238 lb | San Diego, CA |