Miller Moss

Senior quarterback for Louisville. 2025: 2,679 passing yards, 16 TD, 7 INT.

QB · Louisville · Sr. · #7

6′2″ · 210 lb · Los Angeles, CA

CFB Index 37 · #102 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Louisville for 2026

The numbers

2,679

passing yards · 2025

16 TD · 7 INT · 7.1 per attempt

Backed by 372 yds · 6 TD -- top 0.1% passing TDs game.

The play that turned itSwung Louisville from 15% to 56% to win.Virginia at Louisville · 30-27

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Louisville. 2025: 2,679 passing yards, 16 TD, 7 INT.

Signed as a 4-star recruit to USC in 2021.
Transferred from USC to Louisville in 2025.

The full story, with sources

How he plays

Operates within the system without forcing anything.

Success rate: 56th percentile.

The full scouting read

Miller Moss

QB · Louisville · Sr · #7

Operates within the system without forcing anything. Miller Moss has played for three head coaches across five seasons and two programs. 2024 brought the first one: All-Big Ten. One game to point at: 339 pass yds, 3 pass TD against Pittsburgh — Week 5, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
recognition record
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2021USC4-8HC: Donte Williams · Balanced, fast tempo

2022USC11-3HC: Lincoln Riley · Balanced

2023USC8-5HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning, slow tempo

2024USC7-6HC: Lincoln Riley · Pass-leaning

2025Louisville9-4HC: Jeff Brohm · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

37Below cohort / limited sample #102 of 146?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush tds (86th percentile). Concern: explosive rate (26th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#80 / 183 · 56th pct

41.2%

Sack rate#84 / 183 · 54th pct

4.8%

Interception rate#87 / 183 · 52nd pct

2.1%

EPA / dropback#129 / 183 · 30th pct

0.11

Explosive rate#135 / 183 · 26th pct

7.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush TDs#21 / 183 · 86th pct

Pass yards#54 / 183 · 71st pct

2679

Completion %#64 / 183 · 64th pct

64.2%

Pass TDs#63 / 183 · 64th pct

Yards / att#92 / 183 · 49th pct

7.1

Interceptions#92 / 183 · 44th pct

Fumbles lost#87 / 174 · 38th pct

Rush yards#175 / 183 · 5th pct

-65

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

57th → 30th percentile

Success rate

85th → 56th percentile

Explosive rate

29th → 26th percentile

Sack rate

93rd → 54th percentile

Interception rate

58th → 52nd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

235/376 (62.5%) · 16 TD · 7 INT

376 of 380 attempts matched to play-by-play

140 of 376 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

6.3687 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

4.8%103 of 206 QBs

Rarely sacked (103 of 206 QBs) and still 87 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

18% of attempts (25)

88%comp

Air -3.3 · YAC 11.0 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

53% of attempts (74)

65%comp

Air 4.3 · YAC 3.6 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

17% of attempts (24)

38%comp1 INT

Air 14.9 · YAC 6.8 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

12% of attempts (17)

35%comp2 INT

Air 24.5 · YAC 7.3 avg

Overall 62.5% completion on 376 attempts · 35% completion on 17 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 25 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/153 (4.6%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

-13 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 7/121 (5.8%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+25 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/106 (4.7%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home9g	217	1.1	7.5	0.6
Road3g	241	2.0	6.1	0.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	252	1.5	7.5	0.7
Weeks 8+6g	195	1.2	6.8	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Jeff Brohm

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

37 · #102 of 146 QBs

Former four-star. Now #102 at the position.

2026 outlook

Outside shot for All-ACC

Based on 2025: #14 of 17 ACC QBs

How the All-ACC estimate is computed

22% estimated, 95% confidence interval 19–25%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Louisville	244	380	64.2%	2,679	7.0	16	7	133.6	55	--	--
2024	USC	233	362	64.4%	2,555	7.1	18	9	135.1	67	--	--
2023	USC	46	65	70.8%	681	10.5	7	1	191.2	--	--	--
2022	USC	12	14	85.7%	159	11.4	1	0	204.7	--	--	--
2021	USC	8	13	61.5%	74	5.7	1	0	134.7	--	--	--
Career		543	834	65.1%	6,148	7.4	43	17	140.0	61	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Louisville	54	-65	-1.2	9	--
2024	USC	21	-18	-0.9	2	--
2023	USC	4	32	8.0	2	--
2022	USC	3	9	3.0	0	--
2021	USC	3	-14	-4.7	0	--
Career		85	-56	-0.7	13	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 8 · 2025

W 24–21

at Miami

248 yds · 2 TD · 0 INT · QBR 71.5 · -9 rush yds (3 car) · 1 TD

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 3 on the road.

With D. Chapeau — 3 rush yds (1 car) · C. Bell — 9 rec · 136 yds · 2 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 5 · Pittsburgh · 3&15 · Q1 · EPA -8.35Miller Moss pass intercepted Rasheem Biles return for 75 yds for a TD (Trey Butkowski KICK)
Week 6 · Virginia · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA -7.72Miller Moss pass intercepted Kam Robinson return for 47 yds for a TD (Will Bettridge KICK)
Week 1 · Eastern Kentucky · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA -7.67Miller Moss pass intercepted Vito Tisdale return for 29 yds for a TD (Buzz Flabiano KICK)
Week 14 · Kentucky · 4&1 · Q2 · EPA +5.24(08:22) #7 M.Moss pass complete short middle to #86 J.Stewart caught at KEN26, for 43 yards to the KEN00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 08:18, 1ST DOWN #36 C.Ranvier kick attempt good (H: #93 D.Chapeau, LS: #48 S.Kochav)
Week 2 · James Madison · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +5.15Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 64 yds for a TD (M. Moss Run For Two-point Conversion)
Week 4 · Bowling Green · 3&14 · Q2 · EPA +4.21Miller Moss pass complete to Dacari Collins for 36 yds to the BGSU 34 for a 1ST down
Week 6 · Virginia · 3&25 · Q4 · EPA +4.15Miller Moss pass complete to Kris Hughes for 33 yds to the UVA 40 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Boston College · 2&7 · Q3 · EPA -4.05(02:33) Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass intercepted by #2 K.Price at BC.15 #2 K.Price return 17 yards to the BC.32 (#22 K.Brown)
Week 8 · Miami · 3&3 · Q4 · EPA +3.78Miller Moss pass complete to Chris Bell for 36 yds for a TD (Cooper Ranvier KICK)
Week 5 · Pittsburgh · 3&7 · Q4 · EPA +3.64Miller Moss pass complete to Caullin Lacy for 37 yds to the PITT 21 for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 51-17vs Eastern Kentucky	17/25	223	1	2	8.9	89.3
Wk 2	W 28-14vs James Madison	13/23	151	1	0	6.6	59.0
Wk 4	W 40-17vs Bowling Green	23/32	316	0	0	9.9	71.9
Wk 5	W 34-27@ Pittsburgh	33/51	339	3	1	6.6	73.3	Season-high 339 yds
Wk 6	L 27-30vs Virginia	34/48	329	2	1	6.9	54.2
Wk 8	W 24-21@ Miami	23/37	248	2	0	6.7	71.5
Wk 9	W 38-24vs Boston College	15/27	187	1	1	6.9	38.0
Wk 10	W 28-16@ Virginia Tech	19/28	136	1	1	4.9	67.3
Wk 11	L 26-29vs California	20/38	203	0	1	5.3	20.5
Wk 12	L 19-20vs Clemson	19/27	212	0	0	7.9	58.7
Wk 14	W 41-0vs Kentucky	12/20	182	3	0	9.1	87.8	3 TD passes
Bowl	W 27-22vs Toledo	16/24	153	2	0	6.4	77.1
Total		244/380	2679	16	7	7.2	64.0

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

55.1%Completion %

15.1%Conversion/dropback

70.4%Land short of sticks

3INTs

55.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 15.1% conversion-per-dropback — 70.4% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

11/133rd/4th & short

8/30Inside-5 share

11 of 13 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (84.6%). 8 of the team's 30 inside-the-5 carries (26.7%).

2026 Outlook

Louisville

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Louisville · editorial

Returning around him

35% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
1 Louisville player drafted to NFL
Transfer portal: -7 net (33 in / 40 out)

2026 Award watch

Manning Award
Davey O'Brien
Heisman Watch

Louisville · Last season: 9-4 (AP #19) · Talent rank #37 · 2026 recruiting class #48

DNA match

Player DNA

Pocket Passer

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Dylan Lonergan’s 2025 season.

Dylan Lonergan

74%match

Boston College · 2025

Will Rogers

Mississippi State · 2023

74%

Gunnar Watson

Troy · 2021

73%

Kedon Slovis

USC · 2021

72%

Garrett Nussmeier

LSU · 2025

All-SECNFL Rd 7

71%

Matches Dylan on

Completion %

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Recruiting rating

Differs from Dylan on

Class year (higher)

EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Eli Peters’s path through Toledo.

Eli Peters

89%match

Toledo · 2020

Brady Cook

Missouri · 2024

87%

Ethan Garbers

UCLA · 2024

84%

Haynes King

Georgia Tech · 2025

All-ACC

80%

Kenny Pickett

Pittsburgh · 2021

1st-team All-AmericanNFL Rd 1 · Pk 20

81%

Matches Eli on

Completion %

Yards per attempt

As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Garrett Nussmeier's graduate season at LSU (2025).

Garrett Nussmeier

70%match

LSU · 2025

All-SECNFL Rd 7

Hudson Card

Purdue · 2024

68%

Preston Stone

Northwestern · 2025

All-AAC

61%

Hank Bachmeier

Wake Forest · 2024

53%

Ben Finley

Akron · 2024

49%

Matches Garrett on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Weight

Height

Differs from Garrett on

EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)

Completion % (lower)

Player DNA

Players who play like Miller Moss

Dylan Lonergan

Boston College · 2025

78%

Garrett Nussmeier

LSU · 2025

74%

Will Rogers

Washington · 2024

66%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #62

Final rank

#70

Avg #68.7

Finalist prob 0%

Peaked at #62 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Miller Moss

2021

20249 games

202512 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Impact starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Pocket Passer

Players who play like Miller Moss

Heisman trajectory

Peak #62