This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, lost 2 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianMissouriUNLVPurdueKansasKansasPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelMissouri when he took over: 43.9 (Power Program III), its final 2015 readingtook overMissouri, 2016: 4-8, National Program IMissouri, 2016: 4-8, National Program I20164-8Missouri, 2017: 7-6, National Program I20177-6Missouri, 2018: 8-5, Power Program III20188-5Missouri, 2019: 6-6, National Program IMissouri, 2019: 6-6, National Program I20196-6-0.6UNLV when he took over: 10.3 (Regional Program IV), its final 2022 readingtook overUNLV, 2023: 9-5, Regional Program IVUNLV, 2023: 9-5, Regional Program IV20239-5UNLV, 2024: 10-3, Regional Program IIIUNLV, 2024: 10-3, Regional Program III202410-3+6.6Purdue when he took over: 20.1 (Regional Program II), its final 2024 readingtook overPurdue, 2025: 2-10, Regional Program IIPurdue, 2025: 2-10, Regional Program II20252-10Purdue, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IIIPurdue, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program III20263-5-1.8best: 2018gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-3

Missouri2017Texas BowlL 16-332018Liberty BowlL 33-38UNLV2023Guaranteed Rate BowlL 36-49

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 17-31 at Penn State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat12% 33rd of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. Maryland Sat Nov 7
  • Stature95th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 10%. Lose and he’s at 15%.

vs. Maryland, Sat Nov 7, 12:30 pm ET BTN · Maryland is 2-6 · First meeting between Odom and Aazaar Abdul-Rahim as head coaches · Purdue’s chance to win: 68% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Purdue wins: 10%, 36th of 132Now: 12%If Purdue loses: 15%, 27th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Purdue wins: 10%, 36th of 132
  • Now: 12%
  • If Purdue loses: 15%, 27th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

12% chance he’s out after the season · 33rd of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow8% had they won8% had they wonLoss 15%Win 10%18%12%19%21%23%15%9%11%12%Pre1W vs. Indiana StateW2L vs. Wake ForestL3L at UCLAL4L vs. Notre DameL5W at IllinoisW6W vs. MinnesotaW7L vs. WashingtonL8L at Penn StateL9Chance to win vs. Maryland68%10Chance to win at Iowa12%11Chance to win vs. Wisconsin28%12Chance to win at Indiana6%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow8% had they wonLoss 15%Win 10%18%12%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-916%
  2. 4-810%
  3. 5-77%
  4. 6-64%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 82nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 21%, 26th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 23%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 31st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 11%, 42nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 10%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 12%, 33rd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 4▲ 2-10 over his previous season here

Hottest: 2026, week 4 (23%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 2-10 over his previous season here

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-10 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 21
  • ▼ Cooler
    $25.1M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 4.2× his pay, a multiple above average in FBS — costly to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$25,125,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 4.2× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 19%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Fans are frustrated with Purdue

Get dumped by Purdue (tbf, because of our insecurity) so you date Purdue's sister instead.

This is unfortunately not possible. Purdue going 11-1 would violate the laws of physics somehow

5 Takeaways From Purdue's 78-72 Loss to No. 15 Gonzaga in Season Opener The good and the bad from Purdue’s loss to Gonzaga to begin the season.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 53rd of 138 per play. Defense: 124th.

Offense, per play53rdOffense, starting field position42ndDefense, per play124thPass defense137thWorstBest
Offense, per play53rd of 138Offense, starting field position42nd of 138Defense, per play124th of 138Pass defense137th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Purdue. The other two rows are where Purdue stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Maryland (2-6)BTN68%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Iowa (6-2)12%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Wisconsin (5-3)28%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Indiana (8-1)6%

Percent: Purdue’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Purdue stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

88th94th100thPreseason95thIndiana State W 44-19Indiana State W 44-19W 44-19Indiana State95thWake Forest L 36-38Wake Forest L 36-38L 36-38Wake Forest95thUCLA L 38-52UCLA L 38-52L 38-52UCLA96thNotre Dame L 10-49Notre Dame L 10-49L 10-49Notre Dame95thIllinois W 24-17Illinois W 24-17W 24-17Illinois95thMinnesota W 41-13Minnesota W 41-13W 41-13Minnesota94thWashington L 26-38Washington L 26-38L 26-38Washington94thPenn State L 17-31Penn State L 17-31L 17-31Penn State93rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 17-31 at Penn State15 headlines · 36th of 138What did Purdue coach Barry Odom, Penn State players, say after the Lions' 31-17 win over the Boilermakers? On3
  2. Oct 19–25No game1 headline · 81st of 138How Purdue is maximizing its recruiting efforts under Barry Odom On3
  3. Oct 12–18L 26-38 vs. Washington11 headlines · 32nd of 138Purdue football coach Barry Odom Washington postgame Journal & Courier
  4. Oct 5–11W 41-13 vs. Minnesota9 headlines · 43rd of 138Purdue football coach Barry Odom Minnesota postgame press conference USA Today
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 24-17 at Illinois7 headlines · 53rd of 138GoldandBlack.com videos: Barry Odom, players after Illinois win On3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 10-49 vs. Notre Dame12 headlines · 33rd of 138GoldandBlack.com video: Purdue's Barry Odom, players post-Notre Dame On3

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Purdue’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.