It’s bad. Not sure how they turn this around at this point. App has the inside track to the East
Don’t let bad teams hang around James Madison.
At least under Chesney you got the sense that Sluka was like, a trick play/QB sneak guy which was a special kind of bad, but you didn't get the sense that Sluka was QB1 at any point.
Coleman and Evans are just like QB1A/QB1B
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 14th of 138 per play. Defense: 39th.
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is James Madison. The other two rows are where James Madison stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
3 games left
Thu Nov 5at USMSouthern Miss (3-5)82%
Sat Nov 14at CONNUConn (4-4)CBS Sports Network68%
Sat Nov 28vs. CCUCoastal Carolina (3-5)87%
Percent: James Madison’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where James Madison stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Oct 12–18W 49-22 vs. GASTGeorgia State1 headline · 82nd of 138
Oct 5–11W 27-24 at GASOGeorgia Southern2 headlines · 70th of 138
Sep 28–Oct 4W 45-17 vs. MRSHMarshall0 headlines
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 46-20 at ODUOld Dominion1 headline · 83rd of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
His team is 7-2, outscoring opponents by 20.2 points a game
▼ Lower
His first season at James Madison
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 29L 21-24 vs. TroyHonestly. Fire Napier. That’s inexcusable.JMUJames Madison fan
Oct 22L 31-34 at App StateNapier thing. We never had issues like this under Cignetti or ChesneyJMUJames Madison fan
Oct 17W 49-22 vs. Georgia StateBilly Napier is in his Bill Belichick bag of rulebook tricks today and I'm here for it.JMUJames Madison fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 10W 27-24 at Georgia SouthernWe've had way too many of those petulant fouls this season. Napier needs to cut that out of the teamJMUJames Madison fan
Oct 3W 45-17 vs. MarshallNapier finally realized that nobody voting on the polls is actually watching this game and margin mattersJMUJames Madison fan
Sep 19W 26-13 at San Diego StateNapier can coach the first half, Chesney can do the second. Deal, guys?JMUJames Madison fan
Sep 5W 20-13 vs. LibertyThe Florida fans that said we’d hate Napier’s playcalling didn’t realize we had to watch Dean Kennedy wear the headset for two yearsJMUJames Madison fan
Several stories about him this week
Thu Nov 5: Southern Miss
59th of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Game previewA few stories89-0! The Cobra Kai Award, spotlighting the week's biggest blowouts: In Week 2, San Bernardino Valley crushed Compton, plus Billy Napier killed a man...r/CFB
Press conference and quotesA few storiesrising
Conference and scheduleA few storiesBianchi: Jon Sumrall’s Gators have gone from playoff dreams to Billy Napier nightmaresr/CFB
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2019). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4-0 against his rivals at Louisiana. Nobody he faced three or more times there has a winning record against him.
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’18’19’21
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUL
UL Monroe · 2020
70-20
RivalQuality opponent
WIS
Iowa State · 2020
31-14
UpsetQuality opponent
WM-
Miami (OH) · 2019
27-17
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
Signature losses
LTU
Tulane · 2018
24-41
Bowl/CFP stakes
LAP
App State · 2018
19-30
Conference title game
LMS
Mississippi State · 2018
10-56
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-5 against his rivals at Florida. Winless in 3 tries against Kirby Smart.
’22 L’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-2 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
1-4 20.0%ATS —
Power Program
6-11 35.3%ATS 10-7 17 of 17
National Program
8-5 61.5%ATS 6-7 13 of 13
Regional Program
3-1 75.0%ATS —
Signature games
5-16 vs. AP top 25 · 3-9 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’22’23’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WFS
Florida State · 2024
31-11
RivalQuality opponent
WTU
Tulane · 2024
33-8
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WMI
Ole Miss · 2024
24-17
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LOR
Oregon State · 2022
3-30
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUG
Georgia · 2023
20-43
Rival
LUG
Georgia · 2022
20-42
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
6-5 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Kirby Smart.
’22 L’23 L · blew a 7-pt lead’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Dynasty
0-3 0.0%ATS —
Blue Blood
1-4 20.0%ATS —
Power Program
6-14 30.0%ATS 11-9 20 of 20
National Program
12-10 54.5%ATS 12-10 22 of 22
Regional Program
42-6 87.5%ATS 24-23-1 48 of 48
Signature games
5-20 vs. AP top 25 · 3-10 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’18’19’21’22’23’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WFS
Florida State · 2024
31-11
RivalQuality opponent
WTU
Tulane · 2024
33-8
Quality opponentBowl/CFP stakes
WOD
Old Dominion · 2026
46-20
RivalQuality opponent
Signature losses
LOR
Oregon State · 2022
3-30
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUG
Georgia · 2023
20-43
Rival
LUG
Georgia · 2022
20-42
Rival
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that moved, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
Louisiana3.2pt#430 of 449 · less than most
Florida6.9pt#343 of 449 · less than most
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his James Madison classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #41 nationally.
ULLouisiana
2018
#105
Transition
2019
#76
His class
2020
#79
His class
2021
#79
His class
UFFlorida
2022
#17
His class
2023
#13
His class
2024
#13
His class
2025
#7
His class
JMJames Madison
2026
#80
Transition
Across every program: 7 ranked classes of his own, averaging #41 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least3players
ULLouisiana→UFFlorida2022
At least 3 players followed him from Louisiana to Florida.
Kamryn Waites OL
Montrell Johnson RB
O'Cyrus Torrence OL
at least1player
UFFlorida→JMJames Madison2026
At least 1 player followed him from Florida to James Madison.
Noel Portnjagin OL
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
57%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 62 of 109 players. The other 47 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 62Inherited 47
Of his own players on this roster, 26% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 26% of the 62 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+11 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Florida rosters have averaged 11 lb heavier than the FBS average (2022–2025) — heavier than 97% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Florida’s line averaged 9 lb heavier than the FBS average.
Louisiana2018–2021−1 lb
Florida2022–2025+11 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
FLTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 6 of 21 signees (29%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 11 states in all. Next: VA (3).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (21 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
38% of his signees come from FL and its 2 border states (GA 2).
Off this map: 1 signee to the west (NV).
By region
South
17
Northeast
3
West
1
Roster distance from campus (Bridgeforth Stadium, VA)
median hometown distance
292 mi
within 100 mi
15%
within 500 mi
65%
beyond 1,000 mi
7%
101 of 109 roster players with a known hometown (93% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Hired into programs rated 29 to 30 (National Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 0 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 5 lower. Median stay: 2 seasons; 2 left mid-season.
Every coach hired into a National Program III job since 1990 (65): typically -1.8 after year 1, -3.2 after year 2.
Builder meaningfully raised a program that wasn't one · Inheritor inherited a power and neither built it higher nor let it collapse
2026–now
James Madison
too new to grade yet
Followed Bob Chesney (2024–2025).
System Shift, on arrival
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 250 lbs
across 16 of 37 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+8.5 lbs
#32 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: GA (3), CA (1), VA (1), MD (1), TN (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.3
position-weighted
Talent lost
53.4
position-weighted
Net
-0.1
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Arrington Maiden (QB) from Memphis
Biggest loss: Alonza Barnett (QB) to UCF
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Billy Napier inherited Florida at Power Program I and saw it slip to Power Program II.
−5.7 pts over 4 seasons · bottom 32% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
12th-best Florida tenure of 22 by the numbers.
Followed Dan Mullen (2018–2021) · succeeded by Billy Gonzales (2025).
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2022
2023
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
6-7
5-7
8-5
3-4
Postseason
L bowl
—
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Rob Sale
Rob Sale
Rob Sale / Russ Callaway
Russ Callaway
DC
Patrick Toney / Sean Spencer
Austin Armstrong / Sean Spencer
Austin Armstrong / Ron Roberts
Robert Bala / Ron Roberts / Vinnie Sunseri
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
68
73
70
44
Defense
31
32
86
39
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
38.7
44.3
39.6
45.8
Red-zone pass%
33.3
37.8
31.6
40.7
4th-down go%opp. territory
46.2
31.2
30.6
25.8
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
-0.7 pts
#114 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-16.2 pts
#169 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
44
3.4★ avg rating
Portal departures
86
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-42
#112 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 245 lbs
across 33 of 44 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+13.4 lbs
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: FL (5), TX (4), LA (4), AL (3), CA (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
61.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.2
position-weighted
Net
+0.3
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Graham Mertz (QB) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Max Brown (QB) to Charlotte
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Rob Sale (co) → Rob Sale (co) / Russ Callaway (co) · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 44.3% → 39.6% (-4.7 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 72% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Patrick Toney (co) / Sean Spencer (co) → Austin Armstrong / Sean Spencer (co) · 2023
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
DC: Austin Armstrong / Sean Spencer (co) → Austin Armstrong / Ron Roberts (co) · 2024
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
80%
#146 of 188 stints
Grows Running back from high school
75%
#162 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2022: Lost to Oregon State 3-30 SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl2024: Beat Tulane 33-8 Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
21 NFL Draft picks: Anthony Richardson (2023), Gervon Dexter (2023), O'Cyrus Torrence (2023), Ventrell Miller (2023), Justin Shorter (2023), Amari Burney (2023), Ricky Pearsall (2024), Chimere Dike (2025) + 13 more
Billy Napier raised Louisiana from Regional Program III to National Program III.
+12.8 pts over 4 seasons · top 3% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
1st-best Louisiana tenure of 9 by the numbers.
Followed Mark Hudspeth (2011–2017) · succeeded by Michael Desormeaux (2021–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
swipe to see every season
Season
2018
2019
2020
2021
Trend
Record & result
Record
7-7
11-3
10-1
12-1
Postseason
L bowl
W bowl
W bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Rob Sale
Rob Sale
Rob Sale
Michael Desormeaux / Tim Leger
DC
Ron Roberts
Ron Roberts
Patrick Toney
Patrick Toney
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
83
95
83
57
Defense
10
61
81
74
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
26.6
39.7
41.2
39.7
Red-zone pass%
32.7
35.4
33.6
34.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
24.2
40.0
46.9
66.7
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
+38.1 pts
#7 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
+14.2 pts
#51 of 208 · top quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A typical amount of portal roster-building.
Portal arrivals
9
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
7
left via the portal
Net portal flow
+2
#135 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′3″, 230 lbs
across 7 of 9 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+13.5 lbs
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: LA (3), CA (1), TX (1), AL (1), OK (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
29.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
27.3
position-weighted
Net
+2.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Lance LeGendre (QB) from Maryland
Biggest loss: Clifton McDowell (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Tight end from high school
100%
#164 of 188 stints
Grows Running back from high school
86%
#187 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2018: Lost to Tulane 24-41 Autonation Cure Bowl2019: Beat Miami (OH) 27-17 Lendingtree Bowl2020: Beat UTSA 31-24 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
6 NFL Draft picks: Robert Hunt (2020), Kevin Dotson (2020), Raymond Calais (2020), Elijah Mitchell (2021), Max Mitchell (2022), Percy Butler (2022)
Coach of the Year: Sun Belt Coach of the Year (2021)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Chris Smith (2020)
40-12
Was he good?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
The data leans positive, where the data can separate from zero: every conclusive reading points the same way.
Raised the program
UL+12.8 pts at Louisiana · #154 of 1290 · top quarter