Brent Key

Head coach · Georgia Tech
5th season · since 2022

At Georgia Tech29-26since 2022 · 2-6 this seasonHot seatBoiling38% · 7th of 132 jobsLast gameL 11-34at Pittsburgh · Oct 31Nextvs LouisvilleSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ACC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

2-6, lost 3 straight, on track for 2-10 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianGeorgia TechGeorgiaGeorgiaDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyGeorgia Tech when he took over: 31.4 (National Program II), its final 2021 readingtook overGeorgia Tech, 2022: 4-4, National Program IIGeorgia Tech, 2022: 4-4, National Program II20224-4Georgia Tech, 2023: 7-6, National Program II20237-6Georgia Tech, 2024: 7-6, National Program II20247-6Georgia Tech, 2025: 9-4, National Program II20259-4Georgia Tech, 2026: 2-6, National Program IIGeorgia Tech, 2026: 2-6, National Program II20262-6+2.6best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-2

2023Gasparilla BowlW 30-172024Birmingham BowlL 27-352025Pop-Tarts BowlL 21-25

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 11-34 at Pittsburgh Sat Oct 31
  • This season2-6 lost 3 straight
  • Hot seat38% 7th of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextvs. Louisville Sat Nov 7
  • Stature57th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 28%. Lose and he’s at 37%.

vs. Louisville, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ACC Network · Louisville is 5-3 · Key vs. Jeff Brohm: 0-2 · Georgia Tech’s chance to win: 8% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Georgia Tech wins: 28%, 9th of 132Now: 38%If Georgia Tech loses: 37%, 7th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Georgia Tech wins: 28%, 9th of 132
  • Now: 38%
  • If Georgia Tech loses: 37%, 7th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

38% chance he’s out after the season · 7th of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow27% had they won27% had they wonLoss 37%Win 28%12%17%24%25%30%25%27%36%38%Pre1L vs. ColoradoL2L vs. TennesseeL3W vs. MercerW4L at StanfordL5W vs. DukeW6L at Virginia TechL7L vs. Boston CollegeL8L at PittsburghL9Chance to win vs. Louisville8%10Chance to win at Clemson11%11Chance to win vs. Wake Forest4%12Chance to win at Georgia2%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow27% had they wonLoss 37%Win 28%12%38%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 2-1036%
  2. 3-927%
  3. 4-820%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now hotter than at this point in any of them.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 66th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (4 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (5 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 9%, 50th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (7 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (8 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (9 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 3%, 63rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 64th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 25%, 17th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 30%, 14th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 32%, 12th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 25%, 17th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 27%, 12th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 36%, 9th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 37%, 9th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 10▲ 2-6, outscored by 48Every season ended Cool, 2023–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended · he took over during the 2022 season (8 games); that year is unrated, since each season counts against whoever started it.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    2-6, outscored by 48
  • ▲ Hotter
    $11.1M buyout · 2.5× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 2-6 after 8 games
16% pushed out over results · of 288 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$11,123,333 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.5× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 29%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets · 5,586 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Fans are frustrated with Georgia Tech

12:30 kick @Clemson on the CW Outside of ACC after dark I think the is the lowest ranking time slot.

Norvell Gone https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/50055526/fsu-norvell-candidates-roster Bet that wasn't cheap.

Pretty sure Narduzzi just used this game as an open practice for Geriner because it was so painfully clear our offense posed no threat

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 58th of 138 per play. Defense: 131st.

Offense, per play58thOffense, starting field position103rdDefense, per play131stRun defense129thWorstBest
Offense, per play58th of 138Offense, starting field position103rd of 138Defense, per play131st of 138Run defense129th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Georgia Tech. The other two rows are where Georgia Tech stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Louisville (5-3)ACC Network8%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Clemson (5-3)The CW11%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Wake Forest (7-1)4%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Georgia (7-1)2%

Percent: Georgia Tech’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Georgia Tech stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

39th51st63rdPreseason45thColorado L 13-14Colorado L 13-14L 13-14Colorado44thTennessee L 24-45Tennessee L 24-45L 24-45Tennessee45thMercer W 44-11Mercer W 44-11W 44-11Mercer48thStanford L 27-34Stanford L 27-34L 27-34Stanford49thDuke W 28-25Duke W 28-25W 28-25Duke50thVirginia Tech L 24-34Virginia Tech L 24-34L 24-34Virginia Tech51stBoston College L 27-49Boston College L 27-49L 27-49Boston College52ndPittsburgh L 11-34Pittsburgh L 11-34L 11-34Pittsburgh58thBye57th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 11-34 at Pittsburgh9 headlines · 45th of 138JOL TV: Brent Key talks about the loss at Pitt On3
  2. Oct 19–25L 27-49 vs. Boston College6 headlines · 57th of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-34 at Virginia Tech4 headlines · 55th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 28-25 vs. Duke8 headlines · 48th of 138Georgia Tech Postgame Quotes That Matter From Brent Key After Win Over Duke Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game7 headlines · 53rd of 138Georgia Tech Coach Brent Key Calls Team ‘Rebuilding’ After Loss Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 27-34 at Stanford3 headlines · 68th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Georgia Tech’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 85th percentile offense, below the median defense at 45th.

Georgia Tech, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —85th
efficiency — 85th percentile success rate, 2023–25
A80th
Standard-downs success
A84th
Passing-downs success
B+77th
Trench push (line yards)
C+47th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-55th
Power-success (short yardage)
B-58th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —45th
45th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B64th
Front-7 havoc
B+70th
Secondary havoc
C+47th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-35th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.