Chris Creighton

Head coach · Eastern Michigan
13th season · since 2014

At school65-88since 2014 · 4-5 this seasonHot seatBoiling39% · 6th of 132 jobsLast gameL 20-24at Ohio · Oct 24Nextvs Central MichiganWed Nov 4 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-5, lost 2 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 1-5

2016Bahamas BowlL 20-242018Camellia BowlL 21-232019Quick Lane BowlL 30-342021LendingTree BowlL 20-562022Famous Idaho Potato BowlW 41-27202368 Ventures BowlL 10-59

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 20-24 at Ohio Sat Oct 24
  • This season4-5 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat39% 6th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Central Michigan Wed Nov 4
  • Stature126th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 33%. Lose and he’s at 42%.

vs. Central Michigan, Wed Nov 4, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · Central Michigan is 3-5 · Creighton vs. Matt Drinkall: 0-1 · Eastern Michigan’s chance to win: 48% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Eastern Michigan wins: 33%, 8th of 132Now: 39%If Eastern Michigan loses: 42%, 6th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Eastern Michigan wins: 33%, 8th of 132
  • Now: 39%
  • If Eastern Michigan loses: 42%, 6th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

39% chance he’s out after the season · 6th of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow33% had they won33% had they wonLoss 42%Win 33%36%10%42%55%59%55%43%36%40%39%Pre1W vs. Sacramento StateW2L vs. San José StateL3L at Michigan StateL4L at WisconsinL5W vs. LindenwoodW6W at MassachusettsW7W at AkronW8L vs. ToledoL9L at OhioL10Chance to win vs. Central Michigan48%11Chance to win at Western Michigan17%12Chance to win vs. Kent State70%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow33% had they wonLoss 42%Win 33%36%39%Pre36912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-848%
  2. 5-739%
  3. 6-630%
  4. 7-522%

The case for a change

  • 010-win seasons in 12 years here. His best is 9 wins, once.
  • 4-8against Western Michigan here, including 3 straight losses. Next meeting: week 12, on the road.

The case for patience

  • 3straight wins over Kent State. Next meeting: week 13, at home.
  • 65wins here, the most by any Eastern Michigan coach since 1975 (24 more than anyone)

Facts from his record in this job, both ways. No verdict.

Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20142016201820202022202420262014, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 95 FBS jobs2014, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 59th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (4 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (9 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (9 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (10 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 41%, 4th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (4 games in): 43%, 3rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (5 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (6 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (7 games in): 49%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (8 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (9 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (10 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (11 games in): 48%, 3rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): 48%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (12 games in): 49%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (12 games in): 49%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): 49%, 4th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): 32%, 10th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): 26%, 19th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (5 games in): 22%, 21st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (6 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (7 games in): 18%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (8 games in): 19%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (9 games in): 21%, 21st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): 21%, 20th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 19.6%, 24th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (12 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (12 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (3 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (4 games in): 19%, 26th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (6 games in): 21%, 24th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (7 games in): 23%, 22nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 24%, 22nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 24%, 17th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 21%, 20th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (12 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (12 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 40th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 37th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (5 games in): 15%, 35th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (6 games in): 16%, 33rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (7 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (8 games in): 10%, 49th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (9 games in): 12%, 40th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (10 games in): 9.5%, 43rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (11 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): 8%, 46th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (4 games in): 15%, 38th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 15%, 38th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 19.5%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 21%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 15%, 35th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 18%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (9 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (10 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 12%, 36th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (3 games in): 39%, 10th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (4 games in): 41%, 9th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (5 games in): 27%, 20th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (6 games in): 33%, 19th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (6 games in): 33%, 19th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 23%, 25th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 19%, 31st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 21%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 19%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 20%, 25th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (8 games in): 17%, 27th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 12%, 43rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 31%, 14th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 34.7%, 10th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 25%, 22nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 24%, 22nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 24%, 22nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 19%, 25th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (9 games in): 22%, 20th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 22%, 22nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 18%, 27th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 26%, 14th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 29%, 12th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 29%, 15th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 25%, 18th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 27%, 15th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (9 games in): 31%, 13th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 31%, 10th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 32%, 9th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 27%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 14%, 37th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 16%, 34th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 13%, 38th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 18%, 27th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 18%, 24th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 19.6%, 23rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 23%, 21st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 24%, 20th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 24%, 20th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 24%, 20th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 55%, Hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 53%, Hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 54%, 2nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 54%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 50%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (8 games in): 50%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (9 games in): 49%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 49%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 45%, 3rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (11 games in): 41%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 41%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 44%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 44%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 44%, 5th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (4 games in): 59%, Hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (5 games in): 55%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (6 games in): 43%, 7th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (7 games in): 36%, 9th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (8 games in): 40%, 8th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (9 games in): 40%, 8th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (9 games in): 39%, 7th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (9 games in): 39%, 6th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 3▲ Year 13 · tenure, which this model overrates

Hottest: 2026, week 3 (59%, Hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 13 · tenure, which this model overrates

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 13 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 209 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 5% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,443 in years 3–9.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $1.5M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 2.2× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    9-15 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-5 after 9 games
10% pushed out over results · of 415 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 9 games
5% pushed out over results · of 209 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$1,500,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 2.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 27%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 109th of 138 per play. Defense: 112th.

Offense, per play109thRunning offense114thDefense, per play112thPass defense133rdWorstBest
Offense, per play109th of 138Running offense114th of 138Defense, per play112th of 138Pass defense133rd of 138WorstBest
Through 9 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Eastern Michigan. The other two rows are where Eastern Michigan stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

3 games left

  1. Wed Nov 4vs. Central Michigan (3-5)ESPN248%
  2. Tue Nov 17at Western Michigan (6-3)17%
  3. Tue Nov 24vs. Kent State (3-6)70%

Percent: Eastern Michigan’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Eastern Michigan stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

120th126th132ndPreseason125thSacramento State W 28-17Sacramento State W 28-17W 28-17Sacramento St…125thSan José State L 21-27San José State L 21-27L 21-27San José State125thMichigan State L 7-35Michigan State L 7-35L 7-35Michigan State125thWisconsin L 10-54Wisconsin L 10-54L 10-54Wisconsin125thLindenwood W 29-3Lindenwood W 29-3W 29-3Lindenwood126thMassachusetts W 38-14Massachusetts W 38-14W 38-14Massachusetts126thAkron W 25-23Akron W 25-23W 25-23Akron126thToledo L 14-34Toledo L 14-34L 14-34Toledo126thOhio L 20-24Ohio L 20-24L 20-24Ohio126th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 20-24 at Ohio0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18L 14-34 vs. Toledo0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11W 25-23 at Akron0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 38-14 at Massachusetts0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 29-3 vs. Lindenwood0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Eastern Michigan’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 58th percentile offense, bottom-quarter defense at 21st.

Eastern Michigan, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B-
of which —58th
efficiency — 58th percentile success rate, 2014–25
B-56th
Standard-downs success
B-59th
Passing-downs success
C+46th
Trench push (line yards)
B-53rd
Red-zone scoring rate
C43rd
Power-success (short yardage)
C40th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

D
of which —21st
21st percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25
C40th
Front-7 havoc
C+46th
Secondary havoc
D23rd
Stuff rate (run defense)
C+47th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.