Clark Lea

Head coach · Vanderbilt
6th season · since 2021

At Vanderbilt29-41since 2021 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatHot20% · 21st of 132 jobsLast gameL 17-34at Kentucky · Oct 24Nextat Mississippi StateSat Nov 7 · 4:15 pm ET · SEC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, lost 5 straight, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianVanderbiltTennesseeTennesseeMissouriMissouriPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelVanderbilt when he took over: 20.2 (Regional Program II), its final 2020 readingtook overVanderbilt, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program IIVanderbilt, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program II20212-10Vanderbilt, 2022: 5-7, Regional Program III20225-7Vanderbilt, 2023: 2-10, Regional Program III20232-10Vanderbilt, 2024: 7-6, Regional Program III20247-6Vanderbilt, 2025: 10-3, Regional Program I202510-3Vanderbilt, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IVanderbilt, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program I20263-5+2.6best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 1-1

2024Birmingham BowlW 35-272025ReliaQuest BowlL 27-34

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 17-34 at Kentucky Sat Oct 24
  • This season3-5 lost 5 straight
  • Hot seat20% 21st of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Mississippi State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature75th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 16%. Lose and he’s at 23%.

at Mississippi State, Sat Nov 7, 4:15 pm ET SEC Network · Mississippi State is 4-4 · First meeting between Lea and Jeff Lebby as head coaches · Vanderbilt’s chance to win: 43% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Vanderbilt wins: 16%, 26th of 132Now: 20%If Vanderbilt loses: 23%, 17th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Vanderbilt wins: 16%, 26th of 132
  • Now: 20%
  • If Vanderbilt loses: 23%, 17th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

20% chance he’s out after the season · 21st of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow14% had they won14% had they wonLoss 23%Win 16%6%5%6%5%8%8%14%20%20%Pre1W vs. Austin PeayW2W vs. DelawareW3W vs. NC StateW4L at AuburnL5L at GeorgiaL6L vs. Ole MissL7L vs. ArkansasL8L at KentuckyL9Chance to win at Mississippi State43%10Chance to win vs. Alabama7%11Chance to win at Florida12%12Chance to win vs. Tennessee15%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow14% had they wonLoss 23%Win 16%6%20%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-923%
  2. 4-816%
  3. 5-710%
  4. 6-66%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2021202220232024202520262021, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 3%, 81st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 80th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 82nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (7 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (8 games in): 4%, 75th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (9 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (10 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (11 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (12 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (4 games in): 15%, 31st-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (5 games in): 18%, 30th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (5 games in): 18%, 28th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (6 games in): 19.5%, 29th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (7 games in): 19%, 28th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (8 games in): 20%, 24th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 20%, 24th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 22%, 21st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 16%, 30th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 14%, 30th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (4 games in): 31%, 10th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (5 games in): 34%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (6 games in): 38%, 6th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (7 games in): 37%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (8 games in): 37%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (8 games in): 37%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (9 games in): 37%, 8th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (10 games in): 39%, 6th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (11 games in): 39%, 6th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 39%, 6th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 38%, 7th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 22%, 19th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 21%, 25th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 16%, 32nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): 10%, 40th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 9.6%, 41st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 54th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 93rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 8%, 53rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 8%, 51st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 14%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 20%, 22nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 21%, 21st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 20%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 20%, 21st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2023, week 10▲ 2-8, outscored by 95

Hottest: 2023, week 10 (39%, 6th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 2-8, outscored by 95

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 60
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 6 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$10,855,616 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 2.9× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 17%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

I'm frustrated”

Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea recaps loss to Kentucky

On3 headline · Mon Oct 26

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from several outlets

Offense: 105th of 138 per play. Defense: 111th.

Offense, per play105thOffense, big plays24thDefense, per play111thDefense, knocking offenses off schedule121stWorstBest
Offense, per play105th of 138Offense, big plays24th of 138Defense, per play111th of 138Defense, knocking offenses off schedule121st of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Vanderbilt. The other two rows are where Vanderbilt stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Mississippi State (4-4)SEC Network43%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Alabama (6-2)SEC Network7%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Florida (5-3)12%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Tennessee (6-2)15%

Percent: Vanderbilt’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Vanderbilt stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

68th74th80thPreseason76thAustin Peay W 28-9Austin Peay W 28-9W 28-9Austin Peay74thDelaware W 35-26Delaware W 35-26W 35-26Delaware74thNC State W 35-31NC State W 35-31W 35-31NC State74thAuburn L 15-21Auburn L 15-21L 15-21Auburn72ndGeorgia L 14-38Georgia L 14-38L 14-38Georgia71stOle Miss L 17-52Ole Miss L 17-52L 17-52Ole Miss73rdArkansas L 21-31Arkansas L 21-31L 21-31Arkansas76thKentucky L 17-34Kentucky L 17-34L 17-34Kentucky77th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game2 headlines · 77th of 138Clark Lea talks about Jared Curtis performance for Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Yahoo Sports“I'm frustrated”Vanderbilt head coach Clark Lea recaps loss to Kentucky, Oct 26
  2. Oct 19–25L 17-34 at Kentucky9 headlines · 45th of 138Clark Lea talks about Jared Curtis performance for Vanderbilt vs Kentucky Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 21-31 vs. Arkansas11 headlines · 32nd of 138Clark Lea talks about Jared Curtis performance in loss to Arkansas Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11L 17-52 vs. Ole Miss8 headlines · 48th of 138This The Antithesis of What Clark Lea Preaches. If That Doesn't Change, Vandy Will Keep Getting Its "A** Kicked" Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 14-38 at Georgia14 headlines · 31st of 138What Clark Lea said about Blaze Berlowitz performance vs Georgia Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 15-21 at Auburn9 headlines · 40th of 138Clark Lea talks about Blaze Berlowitz at wide receiver for Vanderbilt football vs Auburn Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Vanderbilt’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Below the median on both sides of the ball — 49th percentile offense, 34th percentile defense.

Vanderbilt, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —49th
efficiency — 49th percentile success rate, 2021–25
C+49th
Standard-downs success
C+48th
Passing-downs success
B-50th
Trench push (line yards)
B-59th
Red-zone scoring rate
B-53rd
Power-success (short yardage)
B-59th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —34th
34th percentile SP+ defense, 2021–25
B62nd
Front-7 havoc
B+70th
Secondary havoc
B-56th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-37th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.