This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 24-27 at Colorado Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 lost 2 straight
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextvs. Oklahoma State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature32nd of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Oklahoma State

Sat Nov 7, 1 pm ET TNT · Oklahoma State is 5-3 · First meeting between Klein and Eric Morris as head coaches · Kansas State’s chance to win: 55% (the site’s model)

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Fans are frustrated with Kansas State

Need to give him a few years to do his thing. This team was overhyped and had some bad injuries before the season even started.

First year. They’re behind on talent evaluation and acquisition. Coaches are all pretty green. They need more time than many were willing to admit.

He has missed the last 2 games now. Got injured against KU.

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 70th of 138 per play. Defense: 83rd.

Offense, per play70thOffense, big plays128thDefense, per play83rdDefense, big plays allowed122ndWorstBest
Offense, per play70th of 138Offense, big plays128th of 138Defense, per play83rd of 138Defense, big plays allowed122nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Kansas State. The other two rows are where Kansas State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Oklahoma State (5-3)TNT55%
  2. Sat Nov 14at TCU (4-4)32%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Arizona (6-2)21%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Iowa State (4-4)64%

Percent: Kansas State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Kansas State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

23rd29th35thPreseason27thNicholls W 71-3Nicholls W 71-3W 71-3Nicholls27thWashington State W 34-7Washington State W 34-7W 34-7Washington St…27thTulane W 31-20Tulane W 31-20W 31-20Tulane27thCincinnati L 26-31Cincinnati L 26-31L 26-31Cincinnati27thHouston L 16-35Houston L 16-35L 16-35Houston28thKansas W 35-24Kansas W 35-24W 35-24Kansas28thArizona State L 17-28Arizona State L 17-28L 17-28Arizona State28thColorado L 24-27Colorado L 24-27L 24-27Colorado31st
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 24-27 at Colorado14 headlines · 37th of 138Kansas State Coach Collin Klein Explains How Deion Sanders Impacted Overtime Decision Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 19–25L 17-28 at Arizona State8 headlines · 47th of 138Collin Klein, Kansas State Wildcats In Running For Top CB Recruit Out Of Texas Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 35-24 vs. Kansas14 headlines · 25th of 138What Collin Klein said after Kansas State's 18th straight win over Kansas The Topeka Capital-Journal
  4. Oct 5–11L 16-35 vs. Houston10 headlines · 38th of 138Collin Klein Has More Questions Than Answers After K-State's Loss to Houston Sports Illustrated
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game9 headlines · 48th of 138Looking Back At One Of Kansas State Coach Collin Klein's Finest Moments From 15 Years Ago Yahoo Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 26-31 at Cincinnati8 headlines · 44th of 138K-State's First Road Game Will Put Collin Klein's Demand for Discipline to the Test Yahoo Sports

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Kansas State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool89th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

His first rated season here.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20262026, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 1 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 79
  • ▼ Cooler
    No previous seasons here to judge him on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled112th-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    His first season at Kansas State
  • ▲ Higher
    No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 9.9 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.