Deion Sanders

Head coach · Colorado
4th season · since 2023

At Colorado19-26since 2023 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatCool8% · 42nd of 132 jobsLast gameW 27-24vs Kansas State · Oct 31Nextat Arizona StateSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianColoradoColorado StateColorado StateNebraskaNebraskaNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelColorado when he took over: 16.6 (Regional Program III), its final 2022 readingtook overColorado, 2023: 4-8, Regional Program IVColorado, 2023: 4-8, Regional Program IV20234-8Colorado, 2024: 9-4, Regional Program III20249-4Colorado, 2025: 3-9, Regional Program II20253-9Colorado, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program IIColorado, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program II20263-5+2.2best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

2024Alamo BowlL 14-36

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 27-24 vs. Kansas State Sat Oct 31
  • This season3-5
  • Hot seat8% 42nd of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextat Arizona State Sat Nov 7
  • Stature94th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 5%. Lose and he’s at 9%.

at Arizona State, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ESPN2 · Arizona State is 4-4 · Sanders vs. Kenny Dillingham: 1-1 · Colorado’s chance to win: 30% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Colorado wins: 5%, 53rd of 132Now: 8%If Colorado loses: 9%, 40th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Colorado wins: 5%, 53rd of 132
  • Now: 8%
  • If Colorado loses: 9%, 40th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

8% chance he’s out after the season · 42nd of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow14% had they lostLoss 9%Win 5%15%10%8%9%10%11%10%13%8%Pre1W at Georgia TechW2W vs. Weber StateW3L at NorthwesternL4L at BaylorL5L vs. Texas TechL6L vs. UtahL7L at Oklahoma StateL8W vs. Kansas StateW9Chance to win at Arizona State30%10Chance to win vs. Houston10%11Chance to win at Cincinnati28%12Chance to win vs. UCF44%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow14% had they lost14% had they lostLoss 9%Win 5%15%8%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-911%
  2. 4-87%
  3. 5-74%
  4. 6-62%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 111th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 113th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 5%, 64th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 5%, 62nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 65th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 58th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 69th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 7%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 9%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 9%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 9.8%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 9.8%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 9.8%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 10%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 11%, 41st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 10%, 42nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 9.5%, 47th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 13%, 33rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 8%, 45th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 8%, 42nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2023–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 67
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$33,625,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.7× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 12%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Fans are feeling good about Colorado

I'm a big Utes fan, but I'm not sold on the number three ranking either. The blowout against cinnci helps, but almost losing to Colorado doesn't. Wishing them the best in the holy war. Hope they finally break that losing streak, go Utes!

For anyone navigating the holidays without family, the Colorado Healing Collective in Longmont is hosting an online support group Nov.12-Jan. 7. The Colorado Healing Collective is gathering participants for an upcoming virtual therapy group focused on family estrangement starting November 12th. We will meet weekly on Thursdays at 10:00 am. All are welcome!

Halloween party shooting and flock cameras

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 116th of 138 per play. Defense: 40th.

Offense, per play116thOffense, starting field position134thDefense, per play40thDefense, opponents' starting field position125thWorstBest
Offense, per play116th of 138Offense, starting field position134th of 138Defense, per play40th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position125th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Colorado. The other two rows are where Colorado stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Arizona State (4-4)ESPN230%
  2. Fri Nov 13vs. Houston (6-2)ESPN10%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Cincinnati (5-3)28%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. UCF (4-4)44%

Percent: Colorado’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Colorado stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

88th94th100thPreseason94thGeorgia Tech W 14-13Georgia Tech W 14-13W 14-13Georgia Tech94thWeber State W 52-21Weber State W 52-21W 52-21Weber State94thNorthwestern L 7-41Northwestern L 7-41L 7-41Northwestern94thBaylor L 13-23Baylor L 13-23L 13-23Baylor94thTexas Tech L 7-29Texas Tech L 7-29L 7-29Texas Tech94thUtah L 24-27Utah L 24-27L 24-27Utah93rdOklahoma State L 24-57Oklahoma State L 24-57L 24-57Oklahoma State93rdKansas State W 27-24Kansas State W 27-24W 27-24Kansas State94thBye93rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 27-24 vs. Kansas State84 headlines · 2nd of 138Deion Sanders, Colorado football needed this one, no matter what he says USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25L 24-57 at Oklahoma State40 headlines · 8th of 138Deion Sanders’ Stubborn Recruiting Style Called ‘A Bad Look’ Amid Colorado’s Slide Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 24-27 vs. Utah36 headlines · 6th of 138Deion Sanders Gets Promising Colorado Update With Isaac Wilson That He Never Got With Julian Lewis Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11No game45 headlines · 2nd of 138Deion Sanders’ Colorado playbook was found at the team hotel. Texas Tech didn’t even need it The New York Times“We Have One Glaring Problem”Deion Sanders Reveals What Colorado Must Fix, Oct 4
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 7-29 vs. Texas Tech60 headlines · 3rd of 138Colorado names players dismissed by coach Deion Sanders after Northwestern blowout The New York Times
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 13-23 at Baylor105 headlines · 1st of 138Deion Sanders says Colorado is ‘better than’ its 2-2 record after loss at Baylor The New York Times

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Colorado’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Below the median on both sides of the ball — 47th percentile offense, 38th percentile defense.

Colorado, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

C+
of which —47th
efficiency — 47th percentile success rate, 2023–25
C41st
Standard-downs success
B+70th
Passing-downs success
C+46th
Trench push (line yards)
B+73rd
Red-zone scoring rate
C+45th
Power-success (short yardage)
B65th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C-
of which —38th
38th percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
B+75th
Front-7 havoc
B+75th
Secondary havoc
B-57th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B+71st
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.