Playoff odds1.0% → <0.1%CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after
Saturday: at KSUKansas State
Sat Nov 7, 1 pm ET · KSUKansas State is 4-4 · First meeting between Morris and Collin Klein as head coaches · Oklahoma State’s chance to win: 45% (the site’s model)
THE DETMER FORMULA - THROUGH WEEK 9
Our Sickos metric measuring quarterbacks who sling it downfield without a care.
Drew Mestemaker from Oklahoma State leads the FBS leaderboard. Full top 12 attached. Threading below.
I've been to a lot of away games for both Oklahoma State and Thunder. I've gotten "fuck you" yelled at me probably 5 or 6 times when it's just adults around and that's fine. I always laugh it off. But it's the only time I've had it happen when my young kids were there. Just abhorrent behavior.
<Oklahoma State> Ames is cursed I stg.
Our All-American Kicker missed his first kick of the year. We gave up an onside kick recovery. We muffed a punt. **And nobody is even talking about special teams bc our defense was worse.**
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more negative than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 15th of 138 per play. Defense: 63rd.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Oklahoma State. The other two rows are where Oklahoma State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Sat Nov 7at KSUKansas State (4-4)45%
Sat Nov 14vs. TTUTexas Tech (7-1)18%
Sat Nov 21at ASUArizona State (4-4)48%
Sat Nov 28vs. KUKansas (3-5)53%
Percent: Oklahoma State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Oklahoma State stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool96th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+
Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.
His first rated season here.
His hot seat, week by week
The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.
← swipe for earlier seasons
What drives his number
The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.
▼ Cooler
Year 1· tenure, which this model overrates(why?)
Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.
▲ Hotter
National Program program · the bar going in
▼ Cooler
No previous seasons here to judge him on
What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025
A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.
Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 1, after 8 games
1% pushed out over results · of 521 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.
How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▼ Lower
His first season at Oklahoma State
▲ Higher
No record for him here before this season · his first year in the job
▲ Higher
Age 41 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 49-51 at Iowa StateThis is Eric Morris’ game plan.OKSTOklahoma State fan
Oct 24W 57-24 vs. ColoradoWhatever play calls are in Eric Morris’ red zone play card need to be burned. Dude this isn’t working. Try literally anything else.OKSTOklahoma State fan
Oct 17L 32-35 at HoustonMorris needs to figure out his red zone offense.OKSTOklahoma State fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 10W 42-28 vs. UCFI think he sticks with morris for one more yearOKSTOklahoma State fan
Sep 26W 41-24 at West VirginiaHe came over with Morris from North Texas. ERIC Morris has made a name of finding great QBs. Mahomes and Mayfield are two of the most recent notable ones.OKSTOklahoma State fan
Sep 12W 39-31 vs. OregonI will die for my country Eric MorrisOKSTOklahoma State fan
Sep 5L 10-24 at TulsaEric Morris is trying to become the first head coach to ever get fired after one gameOKSTOklahoma State fan
Many stories about him this week
Sat Nov 7: Kansas State
43rd of 104 FBS head coaches · from several outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
[Barnett] Eric Morris has hired a local high school AD (Steve Keasler, Southlake Carroll) to serve as general manager and associate AD for NIL at North Texas.Aug 14
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2024). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
National Program
2-11 15.4%ATS 5-8 13 of 13
Regional Program
17-5 77.3%ATS 16-6 22 of 22
Signature games
0-4 vs. AP top 25 · 0-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’23’24’25
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WUT
UTSA · 2025
55-17
Quality opponent
WWS
Washington State · 2025
59-10
Quality opponent
WWY
Wyoming · 2024
44-17
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LTX
Texas State · 2024
28-30
Bowl/CFP stakes
LTU
Tulane · 2025
21-34
UpsetConference title game
LCA
California · 2023
21-58
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
One-score games
1-2
33.3% · margin ≤8
Against the spread
6-2
all 8 had a line
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-0 100.0%
National Program
2-2 50.0%
Regional Program
1-1 50.0%
Signature games
1-1 vs. AP top 25 · 1-0 vs. the top 10
Signature wins
WOR
Oregon · 2026
39-31
UpsetQuality opponent
WUC
UCF · 2026
42-28
Quality opponent
WCU
Colorado · 2026
57-24
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LTL
Tulsa · 2026
10-24
Upset
LIS
Iowa State · 2026
49-51
Upset
LHO
Houston · 2026
32-35
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
33% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-0 100.0%ATS —
National Program
4-13 23.5%ATS 8-9 17 of 17
Regional Program
18-6 75.0%ATS 17-7 24 of 24
Signature games
1-5 vs. AP top 25 · 1-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WOR
Oregon · 2026
39-31
UpsetQuality opponent
WUT
UTSA · 2025
55-17
Quality opponent
WWS
Washington State · 2025
59-10
Quality opponent
Signature losses
LTX
Texas State · 2024
28-30
Bowl/CFP stakes
LTL
Tulsa · 2026
10-24
Upset
LTU
Tulane · 2025
21-34
UpsetConference title game
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that moved, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
North Texas11.1pt#197 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
None of his Oklahoma State classes is ranked and fully his yet. Across his other stops, his own classes averaged #91 nationally.
UNNorth Texas
2023
#98
Transition
2024
#70
His class
2025
#112
His class
OKOklahoma State
2026
#69
Transition
Across every program: 2 ranked classes of his own, averaging #91 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least16players
UNNorth Texas→OKOklahoma State2026
At least 16 players followed him from North Texas to Oklahoma State.
Braydon Nelson OL
Caden Yates LS
Caleb Hawkins RB
Desmond Magiya OL
Drew Mestemaker QB
Ethan Wesloski LB
Evan Jackson S
Fatafehi Vailea DT
Johnny Dickson III OL
Keviyan Huddleston DE
Kollin Lewis CB
Miles Coleman WR
Quinton Hammonds S
Saadiq Clements DT
Terrence Lewis WR
Wyatt Young WR
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
79%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 92 of 117 players. The other 25 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 92Inherited 25
Of his own players on this roster, 49% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
Everyone he has brought in, 2026–2026Counting players who have since left: 49% of the 92 arrivals we can classify came through the portal.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+1 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his North Texas rosters have averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average (2023–2025). In the three seasons before he arrived, North Texas’s line averaged 4 lb lighter than the FBS average.
North Texas2023–2025+1 lb
−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
TXTop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 7 of 21 signees (33%) across his 2026–2026 tenure, drawn from 9 states in all. Next: OK (4).
Where his signees came from, 2026–2026 (21 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
71% of his signees come from TX and its 4 border states (OK 4, AR 2, LA 2).
Off this map: 1 signee to the north (WA).
By region
South
16
West
3
Midwest
2
Roster distance from campus (Boone Pickens Stadium, OK)
median hometown distance
316 mi
within 100 mi
20%
within 500 mi
62%
beyond 1,000 mi
12%
113 of 117 roster players with a known hometown (97% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
North Texas is not the same team as last year. Coach Eric Morris and the majority of the team moved on to Oklahoma State
Being a double legacy, I’m super excited about getting to Stillwater. I grew up going to games at Boone Pickens and can’t wait to get back. I’m excited to see the turnaround that Coach Morris and staff will have this year
Being a double legacy, I’m super excited about getting to Stillwater. I grew up going to games at Boone Pickens and can’t wait to get back. I’m excited to see the turnaround that Coach Morris and staff will have this year
Hired into programs rated 34 to 35 (National Program II tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 3 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 2 lower. Median stay: 5 seasons.
Every coach hired into a National Program II job since 1990 (73): typically -0.7 after year 1, -0.6 after year 2.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits younger transfers than most — more of a development bet.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 237 lbs
across 45 of 55 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+4.2 lbs
#119 of 255 · middle half
Avg. class year
Fr
#255 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. portal rating
3.1★
rated arrivals only
Top states: TX (23), CA (4), FL (3), OK (3), MO (2)
Notable portal arrivals with a modeled NIL value
Drew Mestemaker On3 modeled · $3,500,000
On3’s modeled estimate (social reach / exposure), not money actually paid — shown per player, never totaled.
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
59.5
position-weighted
Talent lost
55.9
position-weighted
Net
+3.6
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Drew Mestemaker (QB) from North Texas
Biggest loss: Hauss Hejny (QB) to Colorado State
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Eric Morris moved North Texas from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 3 seasons.
+3.6 pts over 3 seasons · top 18% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
8th-best North Texas tenure of 16 by the numbers.
Followed Seth Littrell (2016–2022) · succeeded by Neal Brown (2026–now).
System Shift, on arrival
System Shift, on departure
Season
2023
2024
2025
Trend
Record & result
Record
5-7
6-7
11-2
Postseason
—
L bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Jordan Davis
Jordan Davis
Jordan Davis
DC
Matt Caponi
Matt Caponi
Skyler Cassity
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
75
59
99
Defense
1
26
26
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
50.8
58.1
45.1
Red-zone pass%
50.8
51.9
45.3
4th-down go%opp. territory
60.4
58.5
61.3
Recruiter or developer?
Outperforms his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Offense vs. talent
+32.9 pts
#11 of 208 · top quarter
Defense vs. talent
-27.9 pts
#196 of 208 · bottom quarter
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
A portal-built roster.
Portal arrivals
69
3.0★ avg rating
Portal departures
100
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-31
#31 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′1″, 231 lbs
across 56 of 69 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-2.1 lbs
#243 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#18 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: TX (28), CA (4), LA (4), MI (3), MS (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
53.7
position-weighted
Talent lost
57.4
position-weighted
Net
-3.7
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Chandler Morris (QB) from TCU
Biggest loss: Chandler Rogers (QB) to California
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Edge via the portal
86%
#7 of 208 stints
Buys Safety via the portal
71%
#21 of 218 stints
Postseason detail2024: Lost to Texas State 28-30 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Coach of the Year: AAC Coach of the Year (2025)
22-16
Was he good?
Program lift
Year 1
graded once a job reaches 3 seasons
A mixed record — ahead of expectations by some measures here, behind by others. The honest read is that it depends which lens you use.
Raised the program
UN+3.6 pts at North Texas · #460 of 1290 · middle half
Beat his talent
Offense vs. talent
+32.9 pts
#11 of 208 · top quarter · 3 covered seasons
Defense vs. talent
-27.9 pts
#196 of 208 · bottom quarter · 3 covered seasons
His own effect, isolated?
Offense marginal impact
+0.20
not distinguishable from zero
Defense marginal impact
-0.32
not distinguishable from zero
Model fit as of 2026-09-04.
Coordinator years
Offensive coordinator across 2 programs, 2 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.
North Texas
