Fran Brown

Head coach · Syracuse
3rd season · since 2024

At Syracuse17-16since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool6% · 51st of 132 jobsLast gameW 30-27vs SMU · Oct 31Nextvs ClemsonSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ESPN2
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, won 2 straight, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 1-0

2024Holiday BowlW 52-35

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 30-27 vs. SMU Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 won 2 straight
  • Hot seat6% 51st of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Clemson Sat Nov 7
  • Stature88th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 6%.

vs. Clemson, Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ESPN2 · Clemson is 5-3 · Brown vs. Dabo Swinney: 1-0 · Syracuse’s chance to win: 28% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Syracuse wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 6%If Syracuse loses: 6%, 50th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Syracuse wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 6%
  • If Syracuse loses: 6%, 50th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

6% chance he’s out after the season · 51st of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow10% had they lost10% had they lostLoss 6%Win 4%16%10%13%14%9%9%12%9%6%Pre1W vs. New HampshireW2L vs. CaliforniaL3L at PittsburghL4W at UConnW5L at VirginiaL6L vs. LouisvilleL7W at North CarolinaW8W vs. SMUW9Chance to win vs. Clemson28%10Chance to win at NC State35%11Chance to win at Boston College55%12Chance to win vs. Notre Dame4%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow10% had they lost10% had they lostLoss 6%Win 4%16%6%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-88%
  2. 5-75%
  3. 6-63%
  4. 7-52%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 107th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 110th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (6 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 5%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 6%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 14%, 34th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 44th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2024–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 40

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Syracuse Orange · 3,568 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Fans are feeling good about Syracuse

G MAC IS BACK. Let's go! So sorry for the loss. I can relate. Syracuse native living in Indy, orange fan and Gmac for life. Be at game next monday. Love to see Orange beat IU in person this time. Wouldn't win 10 games not 10 fn gamee without him.

Syracuse, has never had a coach like Jerry. Never....🎉🎉🎉🎉 The best is yet to come.

Left Syracuse at 3 but this sht to the casket💯💯💯great f***in win today my draft kings on tilt

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 95th of 138 per play. Defense: 61st.

Offense, per play95thOffense, points per trip inside the 4015thDefense, per play61stPass defense28thWorstBest
Offense, per play95th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 4015th of 138Defense, per play61st of 138Pass defense28th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Syracuse. The other two rows are where Syracuse stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Clemson (5-3)ESPN228%
  2. Sat Nov 14at NC State (4-4)ACC Network35%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Boston College (4-4)55%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Notre Dame (7-1)4%

Percent: Syracuse’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Syracuse stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

84th90th96thPreseason90thNew Hampshire W 66-3New Hampshire W 66-3W 66-3New Hampshire90thCalifornia L 18-21California L 18-21L 18-21California90thPittsburgh L 13-27Pittsburgh L 13-27L 13-27Pittsburgh89thUConn W 42-41UConn W 42-41W 42-41UConn91stVirginia L 25-28Virginia L 25-28L 25-28Virginia90thLouisville L 26-34Louisville L 26-34L 26-34Louisville89thNorth Carolina W 31-30North Carolina W 31-30W 31-30North Carolina90thSMU W 30-27SMU W 30-27W 30-27SMU90th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 30-27 vs. SMU12 headlines · 41st of 138Why Syracuse's Win Over SMU is Fran Brown's Most Important Yet Yahoo Sports
  2. Oct 19–25W 31-30 at North Carolina12 headlines · 38th of 138TNIAAM Reacts Results: Orange fans still believe in Fran Brown Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18L 26-34 vs. Louisville8 headlines · 39th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 25-28 at Virginia8 headlines · 48th of 138OF COURSE: Syracuse Football BLOWS IT at Virginia | Fran Brown DISASTER, Malachi Nelson INJURED WBIR
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 42-41 at UConn14 headlines · 31st of 138Fran Brown shakes up the lineup at UConn in a big way: Star cornerback moves to safety Syracuse.com“We had to win”Fran Brown explains what went into his major quarterback decision, Oct 3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game5 headlines · 60th of 138Syracuse Coach Fran Brown Snaps On Refs, Accuses Them Of Cheating Yahoo Sports“I should be able to hold my composure”Coach Brown on Syracuse's loss to Pitt, Sep 18

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Syracuse’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

3%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled62nd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His 3rd season at Syracuse
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 44 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▼ Lower
    His team is 4-4, outscoring opponents by 5.0 points a game
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.