Gerad Parker

Head coach · Troy
3rd season · since 2024 · Purdue before

At Troy16-18since 2024 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatHot20% · 19th of 132 jobsLast gameW 24-21at James Madison · Oct 29Nextvs Louisiana TechSat Nov 7 · 4 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 5-7 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianPurdueTroySouth AlabamaSouth AlabamaNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelPurdue when he took over: 19.4 (Regional Program II), its final 2015 readingtook overPurdue, 2016: 0-6, Regional Program IIIPurdue, 2016: 0-6, Regional Program III20160-6-3.0Troy when he took over: 27.5 (National Program III), its final 2023 readingtook overTroy, 2024: 4-8, Regional Program ITroy, 2024: 4-8, Regional Program I20244-8Troy, 2025: 8-6, Regional Program I20258-6Troy, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program ITroy, 2026: 4-4, Regional Program I20264-4-3.3best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 0-1

Troy2025Salute to Veterans BowlL 13-17

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 24-21 at James Madison Thu Oct 29
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat20% 19th of 132
  • On track for5-7 regular season
  • Nextvs. Louisiana Tech Sat Nov 7
  • Stature87th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds <0.1% → 0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 15%. Lose and he’s at 21%.

vs. Louisiana Tech, Sat Nov 7, 4 pm ET ESPN+ · Louisiana Tech is 6-2 · First meeting between Parker and Sonny Cumbie as head coaches · Troy’s chance to win: 20% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Troy wins: 15%, 26th of 132Now: 20%If Troy loses: 21%, 19th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Troy wins: 15%, 26th of 132
  • Now: 20%
  • If Troy loses: 21%, 19th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

20% chance he’s out after the season · 19th of 132 FBS head coaches · Hot

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow31% had they lost31% had they lostLoss 21%Win 15%23%24%20%18%21%16%21%30%20%Pre1W vs. Sam HoustonW2W vs. Alabama StateW3L at MissouriL4L at Utah StateL5W vs. Southern MissW6L at LouisianaL7L vs. UL MonroeL8W at James MadisonW9Chance to win vs. Louisiana Tech20%10Chance to win at South Alabama38%11Chance to win vs. Georgia Southern31%12Chance to win at Arkansas State41%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow31% had they lost31% had they lostLoss 21%Win 15%23%20%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-828%
  2. 5-720%
  3. 6-613%
  4. 7-58%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now hotter than at this point in any of them.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 79th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 2%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 82nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 15%, 25th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 5%, 61st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 6%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 7%, 49th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 4%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 4%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 18%, 31st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 21%, 27th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 22%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 15%, 29th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 21%, 21st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 30%, 11th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 20%, 21st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 20%, 19th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 8▲ 3-4, outscored by 14Every season ended Cool, 2024–2025

Hottest: 2026, week 8 (30%, 11th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 3-4, outscored by 14

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $2M buyout · 2.2× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscored by 11
  • ▲ Hotter
    12-14 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,025,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 12%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Troy Trojans · 801 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Media session, Louisiana Tech weekMon Nov 2 · Troy Trojans · 194 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 110th of 138 per play. Defense: 91st.

Offense, per play110thOffense, starting field position132ndDefense, per play91stRun defense107thWorstBest
Offense, per play110th of 138Offense, starting field position132nd of 138Defense, per play91st of 138Run defense107th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Troy. The other two rows are where Troy stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Louisiana Tech (6-2)ESPN+20%
  2. Sat Nov 14at South Alabama (4-4)ESPN+38%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Georgia Southern (4-4)31%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Arkansas State (4-4)41%

Percent: Troy’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Troy stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

79th85th91stPreseason83rdSam Houston W 24-21Sam Houston W 24-21W 24-21Sam Houston83rdAlabama State W 34-17Alabama State W 34-17W 34-17Alabama State84thMissouri L 17-27Missouri L 17-27L 17-27Missouri83rdUtah State L 10-21Utah State L 10-21L 10-21Utah State86thSouthern Miss W 55-34Southern Miss W 55-34W 55-34Southern Miss85thLouisiana L 6-33Louisiana L 6-33L 6-33Louisiana86thUL Monroe L 14-21UL Monroe L 14-21L 14-21UL Monroe86thJames Madison W 24-21James Madison W 24-21W 24-21James Madison87th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 24-21 at James Madison0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 14-21 vs. UL Monroe1 headline · 81st of 138
  3. Oct 12–18L 6-33 at Louisiana1 headline · 82nd of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 55-34 vs. Southern Miss0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4No game0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 10-21 at Utah State0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Troy’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.