6-2, won 2 straight, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.
Bowls and playoffs: 1-3
2019Independence BowlL 0-14
2020Cheez-It BowlL 34-37
Duke
2024Gator BowlL 20-52
2025Sun BowlW 42-39
Sat Nov 7, 12:30 pm ET 
· NC State is 4-4 · First meeting between Diaz and Todd Goebbel as head coaches · Duke’s chance to win: 68% (the site’s model)
I'm really, really happy here”
Manny Diaz addresses links to Florida State job after Mike Norvell firing
On3 headline · Mon Nov 2What an accomplishment”
Manny Diaz on Nate Sheppard's historic day
The New York TimesWho will FSU hire to replace Mike Norvell? Jimbo Fisher, Manny Diaz and 7 more candidatesSun Nov 1
USA TodayWhy Duke's Manny Diaz waved off ties to Florida State opening as 'internet rumors'Mon Nov 2
Yahoo SportsManny Diaz on FSU rumors: 'I'm really, really happy here'Tue Nov 3Yahoo SportsManny Diaz Addresses Duke Football Team Amidst Florida State RumorsMon Nov 2
Sports IllustratedManny Diaz Makes His Stance Clear on FSU's Head Coaching JobTue Nov 3Sports IllustratedWhat Stood Out to Manny Diaz in Duke Football's Dominant WinMon Nov 2On3Manny Diaz addresses links to Florida State job after Mike Norvell firing: 'I'm really, really happy here'Mon Nov 2
247SportsHC Manny Diaz addresses FSU rumors; Sheppard, Morris earn recognitionMon Nov 2
Tallahassee DemocratDuke's Manny Diaz, FSU alum, removes himself from coaching searchMon Nov 2
The Fayetteville ObserverManny Diaz opening statement ahead of Duke football vs NC State | VideoMon Nov 2
AL.comDuke football coach Manny Diaz comments on Florida State rumorsMon Nov 2The Fayetteville ObserverManny Diaz addresses Florida State rumors, says he’s ‘really, really happy’ at DukeMon Nov 2
Locked OnFlorida State Must spend to Win – Noles' Coaching Search, Manny Diaz, Jake Dickert DebatedMon Nov 2Asian femboy Can we make friends ?
What’s something about Duke you didn’t expect or know about until you got to campus? Senior. I’ve been looking at Duke and I’ve wanted to hear from you guys. Thanks
logic 150 - lindsay is she good
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
68%
20%
61%Percent: Duke’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
Where Duke stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Yahoo SportsYahoo SportsYahoo SportsYahoo SportsYahoo SportsSports IllustratedEach week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Watch the biggest plays from Duke’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.
This winter
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
I expect another Diaz clock management clinic wasting 140 seconds ahead of crossing midfield while keeping their timeouts.Duke fan
Clock management from Duke is horrendous. Diaz doesn’t understand he’s got 3 timeoutsDuke fan
I agree that Manny Diaz is hot but I don't see what that has to do wit--oh, you mean he's angryDuke fan
Manny Diaz goatDuke fan
Both teams suck and Manny Diaz hates duke fansDuke fan
Sat Nov 7: NC State
15th of 104 FBS head coaches · from many outlets and r/CFB
Manny Diaz Addresses Duke Football Team Amidst Florida State Rumors
Roundtable +1 Nov 2 · a few outlets
Job talk is up: many stories in the last two weeks, from none the two weeks before.
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
from many outlets and r/CFB
Does Duke football play this week? 2026 schedule for Manny Diaz, Blue Devils
Hendersonville Times-News +3 Sep 28 · a few outlets
The headlines for each topic are on the News tab.
Stories we tracked, by school.
DukeDozens of stories2024 to nowMost about: press conference and quotes, quarterback and depth chart, linked to another job.
MiamiMany stories2019 to 2021Most about: press conference and quotes, recruiting, quarterback and depth chart.
Could another school hire him? What has he said?
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
4-2 against his rivals at Miami. Winless in 3 tries against Mack Brown.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
2-1 against his rivals at Duke. Winless in 3 tries against Brent Key.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
6-3 against his rivals. Winless in 3 tries against Brent Key.
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Passed more than the situation called for under Brewer.
1,780 run and pass snaps at Duke, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Five numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 2 ranked Duke classes of his own have averaged #50 nationally — best #30, worst #71.
MiamiDukeAcross every program: 4 ranked classes of his own, averaging #32 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 86 of 103 players. The other 17 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Of his own players on this roster, 16% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
28% of his 133 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%). His share was 33% in 2024 and 29% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out better than most FBS programs’ in 1 of the 3 seasons graded. our read
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Offensive linemen on his Duke rosters have averaged 3 lb lighter than the FBS average (2024–2026) — lighter than 76% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Duke’s line averaged within a few pounds of the FBS average.
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
is his biggest recruiting state: 16 of 61 signees (26%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 19 states in all. Next: NC (8).
54% of his signees come from GA and its 5 border states (NC 8, FL 5, AL 2, TN 2).
Off this map: 5 signees to the west (CA 3, AZ, others).
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. None were his own recruits yet: all 3 roster-verified picks arrived under Mike Elko.
| Year | Pick | Player | Pos | NFL team | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R4.19 | Wesley Williams | Defensive Edge |  Jacksonville Jaguars | recruited under Mike Elko |
| 2026 | R5.22 | Chandler Rivers | Cornerback |  Baltimore Ravens | recruited under Mike Elko |
| 2026 | R6.08 | Brian Parker II | Center |  Cincinnati Bengals | recruited under Mike Elko |
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
Linked to another job
Roundtable +1Manny Diaz Addresses Duke Football Team Amidst Florida State RumorsNov 2The New York TimesWho will FSU hire to replace Mike Norvell? Jimbo Fisher, Manny Diaz and 7 more candidatesNov 1The Fayetteville ObserverManny Diaz addresses Florida State rumors, says he’s ‘really, really happy’ at DukeNov 2Yahoo SportsHow Duke football coach Manny Diaz is handling rumors about FSU openingNov 2Job security talk
Yahoo SportsDuke's Manny Diaz Immediately Linked to Florida State After Sunday's FiringNov 1On3Manny Diaz addresses links to Florida State job after Mike Norvell firing: 'I'm really, really happy here'Nov 2Press conference and quotes
Sports Illustrated +2What Manny Diaz said after Duke football's dominant win over BC | VideoNov 2The Fayetteville Observer +1Manny Diaz opening statement ahead of Duke football vs NC State | VideoNov 2Yahoo SportsManny Diaz addresses FSU head coach openingNov 2Transfer portal
Recruiting
247SportsAnthony Sales commits to Duke, points to Manny Diaz as biggest factorOct 29Yahoo SportsManny Diaz, Duke Land Strong 2027 Recruiting Class RankingOct 29Press conference and quotes
Sports Illustrated +2What Manny Diaz said after Duke football's dominant win over BC | VideoNov 2The Fayetteville Observer +1Duke football's Manny Diaz addresses the media ahead of Tulane | VideoAug 31Quarterback and depth chart
Sports Illustrated +1Manny Diaz Details How Duke Football Is Evaluating QB BattleAug 5Sports Illustrated +1Duke's Manny Diaz Describes 'Miracle' Landing QB Walker EgetAug 10Linked to another job
Roundtable +1Manny Diaz Addresses Duke Football Team Amidst Florida State RumorsNov 2Yahoo SportsDuke's Manny Diaz Linked to Elite Big Ten HC Job After Beating VirginiaOct 24The New York TimesWho will FSU hire to replace Mike Norvell? Jimbo Fisher, Manny Diaz and 7 more candidatesNov 1The Fayetteville ObserverManny Diaz addresses Florida State rumors, says he’s ‘really, really happy’ at DukeNov 2Game preview
Sports IllustratedManny Diaz Faces Greatest Challenge As Duke’s Head CoachAug 16Transfer portal
Sporting News +1Duke's Manny Diaz suggests 'fee' for players entering transfer portalOct 15Yahoo SportsDuke HC Manny Diaz’s transfer fee idea comes with an awkward catchOct 16Yahoo Sports“Completely Tone Deaf”: CFB Analyst Calls Out “Hypocritical” Manny Diaz’s “Lack of Self-Awareness” On Wanting “Transfer Fee” When Players Enter PortalOct 16RoundtableDuke Football: Manny Diaz has ideal solution for transfers in college athleticsOct 16Win
Sports Illustrated +1Duke HC Manny Diaz Makes Mic-Drop Statement After Opening WinSep 7Yahoo SportsDuke Football HC Manny Diaz Dominating Game ControlSep 6Yahoo SportsDuke HC Manny Diaz Sends Exciting Message Following Opening WinSep 8247SportsWhat Duke’s wins are revealing — and what Manny Diaz won’t let them hideSep 21Last year, my bags were packed for Penn State
It’s extraordinarily hard to look to the future, and extraordinarily frustrating because our regular season ends in five weeks, and we know the portal is coming, and we do not have any guidance, you know, in terms of what the rules of engagement are going to be going into ’27
It happened when the basketball portal was showing up in April, and nothing happened, and the chaos of basketball, and we’ve had seven, eight more months to do something about it and have been unable to
He hit a helmet on the big pass
Hired into programs rated 29 to 29 (National Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
The arc of his career is on Now.
Inheritor inherited a power and neither built it higher nor let it collapse · Steady no large move in either direction on our stature ladder
4th-best Duke tenure of 15 by the numbers.
Followed Mike Elko (2022–2023).
| Season | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 9-4 | 9-5 | 6-2 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | W bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | Jonathan Brewer | Jonathan Brewer | Jonathan Brewer | |
| DC | Jonathan Patke | Jonathan Patke | Jonathan Patke | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 16 | 88 | 75 | |
| Defense | 50 | 11 | 90 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 46.5 | 49.3 | 41.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 46.7 | 32.9 | 44.3 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 31.1 | 49.0 | 42.3 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent on offense and underperforms his recruiting talent on defense.
Typical size for position, once adjusted for position mix.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
10th-best Miami tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Followed Mark Richt (2016–2018) · succeeded by Jess Simpson (2021).
| Season | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record & result | ||||
| Record | 6-7 | 8-3 | 7-5 | |
| Postseason | L bowl | L bowl | — | |
| Coordinators | ||||
| OC | Dan Enos | Rhett Lashlee | Rhett Lashlee | |
| DC | Blake Baker / Ephraim Banda | Blake Baker / Ephraim Banda | — | |
| Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile | ||||
| Offense | 28 | 81 | 69 | |
| Defense | 80 | 30 | 62 | |
| Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script | ||||
| 1st-down pass% | 49.7 | 51.0 | 55.5 | |
| Red-zone pass% | 42.0 | 37.2 | 47.5 | |
| 4th-down go%opp. territory | 39.6 | 30.3 | 31.7 | |
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Brings in bigger-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
9 NFL Draft picks: Shaquille Quarterman (2020), DeeJay Dallas (2020), K.J. Osborn (2020), Jonathan Garvin (2020), Jaelan Phillips (2021), Gregory Rousseau (2021), Brevin Jordan (2021), Quincy Roche (2021) + 1 more
Every angle here comes back inconclusive — not enough separation from zero to call it either way.
+2.7 pts at Duke · #510 of 1290 · middle halfModel fit as of 2026-09-04.
Defensive coordinator across 4 programs, 4 stints, before and after wearing the head-coach hat — every season measured on the same axis, whether he personally ran the unit or someone else did.
How to read this. Coordinator seasons come from our coordinator career records; head-coaching-era seasons are the same unit's FBS-relative percentile for those years, regardless of who coached it, read directly from the staff assignments record. A role change (a “hinge”) is a fact, never a performance verdict — only the season-by-season data itself is colored by outcome.
