Mario Cristobal

Head coach · Miami
5th season · since 2022 · Oregon before

At Miami43-19since 2022 · 8-0 this seasonHot seatCool0% · 126th of 132 jobsLast gameW 38-35at North Carolina · Oct 31Nextat Notre DameSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · NBC
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

8-0, won 8 straight, on track for 11-1 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianFlorida InternationalOregonMiamiWashingtonWashingtonFlorida StateFlorida StateBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelFlorida International when he took over: 11.8 (Regional Program IV), its final 2006 readingFlorida International, 2007: 1-11, Regional Program VFlorida International, 2007: 1-11, Regional Program V2007Florida International, 2008: 5-7, Regional Program VFlorida International, 2009: 3-9, Regional Program VFlorida International, 2010: 7-6, Regional Program VFlorida International, 2011: 8-5, Regional Program IVFlorida International, 2012: 3-9, Regional Program IVFlorida International, 2012: 3-9, Regional Program IV2012+0.2Oregon when he took over: 63.0 (Power Program I), its final 2017 readingOregon, 2018: 9-4, Power Program IOregon, 2018: 9-4, Power Program I2018Oregon, 2019: 12-2, Power Program IOregon, 2020: 4-3, Power Program IOregon, 2021: 10-3, Power Program IOregon, 2021: 10-3, Power Program I2021-1.1Miami when he took over: 53.6 (Power Program II), its final 2021 readingMiami, 2022: 5-7, Power Program IIMiami, 2022: 5-7, Power Program II2022Miami, 2023: 7-6, Power Program IIMiami, 2024: 10-3, Power Program IIMiami, 2025: 13-3, Power Program IMiami, 2026: 8-0, Power Program IMiami, 2026: 8-0, Power Program I2026+4.1best: 2019gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 6-6 · won 0 of 1 national title game

Florida International’10W’11LOregon’17L’18W’19W’20LMiami’23L’24L’25W’25W’25W’25L

Show all 12 games
Florida International2010Little Caesars Pizza BowlW 34-322011Beef 'O' Brady's BowlL 10-20Oregon2017Las Vegas BowlL 28-382018Redbox BowlW 7-62019Rose BowlW 28-272020Fiesta BowlL 17-34Miami2023Pinstripe BowlL 24-312024Pop-Tarts BowlL 41-422025CFP first roundW 10-32025 QFCotton Bowl ClassicW 24-142025 semiFiesta BowlW 31-272025CFP title gameL 21-27

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 38-35 at North Carolina Sat Oct 31
  • This season8-0 won 8 straight
  • On track for11-1 regular season
  • Nextat Notre Dame Sat Nov 7
  • Stature11th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 82% → 85% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Notre Dame

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET NBC · No. 4 Notre Dame is 7-1 · Cristobal vs. Marcus Freeman: 1-0 · Miami’s chance to win: 35% (the site’s model)

His week

Miami Hurricanes · 1,230 views by Wednesday

Many stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from several outlets

Fans are feeling good about Miami

Suppose how many games Miami would have won if they was in the Southeastern conference!!??

Miami had a great QB as backup. That Nickel kid is great!!

Mark Matthews 5* OL from STA Currently Commited to TAMU 2.0 The 1.0 thread went off the rails, @OBLIVION locked it and said I should create a new thread should real news surface. Unverified (somewhat dubious) source says a flip could be coming and Fawcett says a big flip is coming so creating 2.0 just in case. https://247sports.com/Player/mark-matthews-46145576/ ... Read more

Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases

Offense: 2nd of 138 per play. Defense: 38th.

Offense, per play2ndPassing offense1stDefense, per play38thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 405thWorstBest
Offense, per play2nd of 138Passing offense1st of 138Defense, per play38th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 405th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Miami. The other two rows are where Miami stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Notre Dame (7-1)NBC35%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Duke (6-2)ABC80%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Virginia Tech (6-2)90%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Boston College (4-4)97%

Percent: Miami’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Miami stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

6th12th18thPreseason12thStanford W 45-6Stanford W 45-6W 45-6Stanford12thFlorida A&M W 77-7Florida A&M W 77-7W 77-7Florida A&M12thWake Forest W 33-20Wake Forest W 33-20W 33-20Wake Forest12thCentral Michigan W 52-3Central Michigan W 52-3W 52-3Central Michi…12thClemson W 41-13Clemson W 41-13W 41-13Clemson12thFlorida State W 43-35Florida State W 43-35W 43-35Florida State11thPittsburgh W 52-23Pittsburgh W 52-23W 52-23Pittsburgh11thNorth Carolina W 38-35North Carolina W 38-35W 38-35North Carolina11thBye11th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 38-35 at North Carolina8 headlines · 54th of 138Miami Hurricanes coach Mario Cristobal and player reaction post North Carolina On3
  2. Oct 19–25W 52-23 vs. Pittsburgh16 headlines · 29th of 138Mario Cristobal’s Miami Accused of Needing Referee Help as Florida State Scare Fuels No. 1 ESPN Debate Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 43-35 vs. Florida State13 headlines · 27th of 138Mario Cristobal Issues Upfront Warning to Miami Ahead of FSU Football Matchup Sports Illustrated
  4. Oct 5–11No game10 headlines · 38th of 138Miami's Mario Cristobal Impressed by FSU Football's Recent Performance Yahoo Sports“It's A Great Time For A Bye Week”Mario Cristobal Gives Injury Updates After Clemson Win, Oct 5
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 41-13 at Clemson17 headlines · 27th of 138Mario Cristobal's new way met Dabo Swinney's old approach -- and one is clearly working better CBS Sports
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 52-3 vs. Central Michigan16 headlines · 24th of 138Miami football finally gets a Saturday game. That makes Mario Cristobal 'very happy' USA Today

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Miami’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 82nd percentile offense, above the median defense at 67th.

Miami, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —82nd
efficiency — 82nd percentile success rate, 2022–25
B+79th
Standard-downs success
A84th
Passing-downs success
B+79th
Trench push (line yards)
B60th
Red-zone scoring rate
A81st
Power-success (short yardage)
C42nd
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B
of which —67th
67th percentile SP+ defense, 2022–25
A+93rd
Front-7 havoc
A84th
Secondary havoc
A84th
Stuff rate (run defense)
B64th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

<1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool126th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

One national title game here, lost in 2025 — in 2022–2025, when every season ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202220232024202520262022, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 98th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 96th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (10 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (11 games in): 1%, 89th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 74th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 108th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 109th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 117th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 120th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 113th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 125th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): <1%, 114th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 106th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 110th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 131st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    8-0, outscoring opponents by 239 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 5 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▼ Cooler
    23-6 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 8-0 after 8 games
0% pushed out over results · of 132 coaches
Were in years 5-9, after 8 games
14% pushed out over results · of 700 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$33,221,422 imputed from total pay — not a reported figure · 4.0× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled91st-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 56 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 8-0, outscoring opponents by 29.9 points a game · AP-ranked
  • ▼ Lower
    Paid $8.3 million in 2025, the 86th percentile of published FBS head-coach pay · up 7% on the season before
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.