Tony Sanchez

Head coach · New Mexico State
3rd season · since 2024 · UNLV before

At school10-22since 2024 · 3-5 this seasonHot seatWarm19% · 22nd of 132 jobsLast gameL 0-24vs Jacksonville State · Oct 29Nextvs LibertySat Nov 7 · 8 pm ET · ESPNU
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

3-5, on track for 4-8 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianUNLVNew Mexico StateNevadaNevadaNew MexicoNew MexicoNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelUNLV when he took over: 6.1 (Regional Program V), its final 2014 readingtook overUNLV, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program VUNLV, 2015: 3-9, Regional Program V20153-9UNLV, 2016: 4-8, Regional Program V20164-8UNLV, 2017: 5-7, Regional Program V20175-7UNLV, 2018: 4-8, Regional Program V20184-8UNLV, 2019: 4-8, Regional Program VUNLV, 2019: 4-8, Regional Program V20194-8+2.5New Mexico State when he took over: 6.9 (Regional Program V), its final 2023 readingtook overNew Mexico State, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program VNew Mexico State, 2024: 3-9, Regional Program V20243-9New Mexico State, 2025: 4-8, Regional Program VI20254-8New Mexico State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program VINew Mexico State, 2026: 3-5, Regional Program VI20263-5-3.0best: 2019gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 0-24 vs. Jacksonville State Wed Oct 28
  • This season3-5
  • Hot seat19% 22nd of 132
  • On track for4-8 regular season
  • Nextvs. Liberty Sat Nov 7
  • Stature135th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 13%. Lose and he’s at 19%.

vs. Liberty, Sat Nov 7, 8 pm ET ESPNU · Liberty is 7-1 · Sanchez vs. Jamey Chadwell: 0-2 · New Mexico State’s chance to win: 4% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf New Mexico State wins: 13%, 29th of 132Now: 19%If New Mexico State loses: 19%, 22nd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If New Mexico State wins: 13%, 29th of 132
  • Now: 19%
  • If New Mexico State loses: 19%, 22nd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

19% chance he’s out after the season · 22nd of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow12% had they won12% had they wonLoss 19%Win 13%25%17%18%20%27%17%19%15%19%Pre1L at Florida StateL2W vs. MercyhurstW3L at Hawai'iL4L vs. New MexicoL5W vs. Western KentuckyW6L at Florida InternationalL7W at Sam HoustonW8L vs. Jacksonville StateL9Chance to win vs. Liberty4%10Chance to win at Missouri State40%11Chance to win vs. Delaware19%12Chance to win at Middle Tennessee42%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow12% had they wonLoss 19%Win 13%25%19%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 3-924%
  2. 4-817%
  3. 5-711%
  4. 6-67%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 93rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 10%, 48th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 10%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): 7%, 51st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 9%, 45th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 10%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 11%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 12%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 13%, 33rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 9%, 41st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 11%, 35th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 22%, 23rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 27%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 16%, 29th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 19%, 23rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 15%, 30th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 19%, 24th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 19%, 22nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 4▲ 7-17 over his previous two seasons here

Hottest: 2026, week 4 (27%, 19th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 7-17 over his previous two seasons here

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    7-17 over his previous two seasons here
  • ▲ Hotter
    3-5, outscored by 30
  • ▼ Cooler
    Regional Program program · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 3-5 after 8 games
18% pushed out over results · of 379 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,077,083 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 3.3× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 21%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 128th of 138 per play. Defense: 43rd.

Offense, per play128thOffense, points per trip inside the 40126thDefense, per play43rdDefense, opponents' starting field position120thWorstBest
Offense, per play128th of 138Offense, points per trip inside the 40126th of 138Defense, per play43rd of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position120th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is New Mexico State. The other two rows are where New Mexico State stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Liberty (7-1)ESPNU4%
  2. Sat Nov 14at Missouri State (3-5)ESPN+40%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Delaware (4-4)19%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Middle Tennessee (4-4)42%

Percent: New Mexico State’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

New Mexico State has held at 135th of 138 FBS programs by stature after every game this season.

  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 0-24 vs. Jacksonville State0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25W 30-24 at Sam Houston0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18No game0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 3-22 at Florida International0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 34-13 vs. Western Kentucky0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 18-42 vs. New Mexico2 headlines · 76th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from New Mexico State’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.