Tre Lamb

Head coach · Tulsa
2nd season · since 2025

At Tulsa8-12since 2025 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatCool6% · 50th of 132 jobsLast gameL 35-38vs Army · Oct 24Nextat TulaneSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · ESPNU
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 35-38 vs. Army Fri Oct 23
  • This season4-4
  • Hot seat6% 50th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextat Tulane Sat Nov 7
  • Stature104th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.1% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

at Tulane, Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET ESPNU · Tulane is 4-4 · First meeting between Lamb and Will Hall as head coaches · Tulsa’s chance to win: 50% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Tulsa wins: 4%, 61st of 132Now: 6%If Tulsa loses: 7%, 46th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Tulsa wins: 4%, 61st of 132
  • Now: 6%
  • If Tulsa loses: 7%, 46th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

6% chance he’s out after the season · 50th of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow3% had they won3% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%8%7%5%3%6%7%7%5%6%Pre1W vs. Oklahoma StateW2W at Sam HoustonW3W vs. East Texas A&MW4L at ArkansasL5L vs. North TexasL6L at NavyL7W at RiceW8L vs. ArmyL9Chance to win at Tulane50%10Chance to win vs. Florida Atlantic67%11Chance to win vs. Charlotte86%12Chance to win at UTSA20%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow3% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%8%6%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-813%
  2. 5-78%
  3. 6-65%
  4. 7-53%
  5. 8-42%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (6 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 70th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 78th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 74th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 5%, 63rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 6%, 50th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    4-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 43
  • ▼ Cooler
    Year 2 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
No figure on file for this coach. The salary database predates the last coaching carousel; a name mismatch is suppressed rather than misattributed.

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

A few headlines named him in the last 7 days

78th of 138 FBS head coaches

The headlines, Oct 24–Nov 4

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 45th of 138 per play. Defense: 61st.

Offense, per play45thOffense, starting field position34thDefense, per play61stDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4013thWorstBest
Offense, per play45th of 138Offense, starting field position34th of 138Defense, per play61st of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4013th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Tulsa. The other two rows are where Tulsa stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Tulane (4-4)ESPNU50%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Florida Atlantic (5-3)ESPN+67%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Charlotte (1-7)86%
  4. Sat Nov 28at UTSA (7-1)20%

Percent: Tulsa’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Tulsa stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

98th104th110thPreseason104thOklahoma State W 24-10Oklahoma State W 24-10W 24-10Oklahoma State104thSam Houston W 23-17Sam Houston W 23-17W 23-17Sam Houston105thEast Texas A&M W 42-0East Texas A&M W 42-0W 42-0East Texas A&M104thArkansas L 6-34Arkansas L 6-34L 6-34Arkansas104thNorth Texas L 44-45North Texas L 44-45L 44-45North Texas105thNavy L 26-34Navy L 26-34L 26-34Navy103rdRice W 38-17Rice W 38-17W 38-17Rice103rdArmy L 35-38Army L 35-38L 35-38Army103rd
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game0 headlines
  2. Oct 19–25L 35-38 vs. Army2 headlines · 73rd of 138
  3. Oct 12–18W 38-17 at Rice2 headlines · 74th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11L 26-34 at Navy2 headlines · 70th of 138
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 44-45 vs. North Texas6 headlines · 59th of 138Tulsa football: Tre Lamb explains why his Golden Hurricane went for 2 Tulsa World
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 6-34 at Arkansas5 headlines · 60th of 138

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Tulsa’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Poach watch

This winter

2%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled73rd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    4-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Higher
    Age 37 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.