CFB Zeitgeist Score
81
All-Conference in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 92nd percentile.
Carnell Tate
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
875 REC YDS · 51 REC · 9 REC TD
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Tennessee2026 NFL rookie season
#4Rd 1 · Pick 4
Tennessee2026 NFL rookie season
WR · OHIO STATE · BIG TEN
Carnell Tate
- 3
- #17
- 6-3 | 195 lb
- Chicago, IL
Heisman Heat
#1597
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
In Their Words
160 windows · 2025 fan posts
carnell×305.1ten×40.9osu×53.0sayin×41.6smith×20.4ohio×10.7jeremiah×10.6
“How much do things change for the OSU offense without Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate? 📽️ Film Study takes a deeper look:”
bluesky_curated · fan post, verbatim
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
2 seasons on the ladder
2023
Ohio State · WR
—
★
2025
Ohio State · WR
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
NFL Draft 2026 · Rd 1, Pick 4 · #4 overall · Tennessee
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2023–2025+231%
Up 231% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★★
CFB
College
Ohio State
NFL
NFL Draft
R1 · #4
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 4-star | 0.9699 | No. 58 recruit | HighSchool | Ohio State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★★☆
to Ohio State
Composite
0.9699
#58 national
NFL Draft
2026 · Rd 1, Pick 4
#4 overall · Tennessee
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Carnell Tate
Fan sentiment · Season 2025 conversation window
Belief Meter
63
Quietly Bullish
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=32
- Rivals · n=2
- National · n=52
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Carnell Tate
Only 2 rival mention(s) — below the 4-mention floor for a defensible read.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
17.2
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #39 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 93rd
Why it matters
#39 of 531 All FBS WRs at 17.2 yards per reception (51 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 17.2 (93th)
HIGH · n=51 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#43 / 531
- Receiving TDs#17 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 6 vs Minnesota — 183 ypr
Result W 42-3
The week the volume broke through — put up 183 yds vs Minnesota.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
875Rec yards
51Receptions
9Rec TDs
Per game
79.5Rec yards
5Receptions
1Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
1,034Rec yards
60Receptions
11Rec TDs
✓ Hit 700-yard receiver · finished with 875.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 875): needs 62.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 51): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 51): needs 14.5/game over remaining 2.
✓ Hit 8 receiving TDs · finished with 9.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 9): needs 0.5/game over remaining 2.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Carnell Tate already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Target magnet | Big-play receiver against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
51 90th
YDS
875 96th
YPR
17.2 87th
TD
9 99th
Rushing
CAR
2 53rd
YDS
16 60th
YPC
8.0 81st
TD
0 81st
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 14-7vs Texas | 2 | 49 | 24.5 | 1 | 40 | |
| Wk 2 | W 70-0vs Grambling | 5 | 69 | 13.8 | 1 | 40 | |
| Wk 3 | W 37-9vs Ohio | 5 | 101 | 20.2 | 1 | 49 | |
| Wk 5 | W 24-6@ Washington | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 6 | W 42-3vs Minnesota | 9 | 183 | 20.3 | 1 | 49 | Season-high 183 yds |
| Wk 7 | W 34-16@ Illinois | 4 | 41 | 10.3 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 8 | W 34-0@ Wisconsin | 6 | 111 | 18.5 | 2 | 33 | 2 TD catches |
| Wk 10 | W 38-14vs Penn State | 5 | 124 | 24.8 | 1 | 57 | |
| Wk 14 | W 27-9@ Michigan | 5 | 82 | 16.4 | 1 | 50 | |
| Wk 15 | L 10-13vs Indiana | 4 | 45 | 11.3 | 1 | 20 | |
| Bowl | L 14-24vs Miami | 3 | 37 | 12.3 | 0 | 15 | |
| Total | 51 | 875 | 16.7 | 9 | 57 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2023Ohio State11-2HC: Ryan Day · Balanced
2025Ohio State12-2HC: Ryan Day · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ohio State | 51 | 875 | 17.2 | 9 | -- |
| 2023 | Ohio State | 18 | 264 | 14.7 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 69 | 1,139 | 16.5 | 10 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ohio State | 2 | 16 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Ohio State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Career | 2 loaded seasons | 2 | 16 | -- | -- | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 51 | #114/1110 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 875 | #46/1107 | 96th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 9 | #17/1111 | 99th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 17.2 | #141/1106 | 87th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 19.0% | #110/1137 | 90th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 16 | #160/397 | 60th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 8 | #198/346 | 43rd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 8.0 | #76/393 | 81st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #194/407 | 53rd pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #81/411 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 57 | #198/1105 | 82nd pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 11.9% | #132/1137 | 88th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 11.6% | #147/1137 | 87th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 9.6% | #114/1137 | 90th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 9.4% | #113/1137 | 90th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 9.0% | #164/1137 | 86th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 9.0% | #102/1137 | 91st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.6% | #259/1137 | 77th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
ALL-CONF HM
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
ALL-CONF HM · Rung 9 of 16
Why he’s here
All-Conference honorable mention / 2nd team — the recognition has started.
What moves him up
A best-at-position run lifts to 1st team.
What moves him down
A back-end conference finish drops out of the honor list.
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 4.7 | 86.9 | 18.2 | 0.9 |
| Road4g | 4.5 | 66.8 | 14.1 | 0.8 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins9g | 4.9 | 88.1 | 17.8 | 0.9 |
| Losses2g | 3.5 | 41.0 | 11.8 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 4.4 | 73.3 | 16.1 | 0.6 |
| Weeks 8+4g | 5.0 | 90.5 | 17.8 | 1.2 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
81All-Conference
Elite: rec tds (96th). Strength: rec yards (91st).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Carnell TateOhio StateChris Brazzell IITennessee· 90% simCamden BrownGeorgia Southern· 89% simAmare ThomasHouston· 88% sim
Rec TDs
Rec yards
Yards / catch
Receptions
Long catch
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Deep Threat
Stretches the field vertically. Every snap is a potential big play.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Camden Brown’s 2025 season.
Camden Brown
75%match
All-Sun Belt
#2
Patrick Bryant
70%
#3
Jason Brownlee
62%
#4
Ja'Corey Brooks
67%
#5
Ali Jennings
67%
Matches Camden on
Weight
Height
Differs from Camden on
Class year (lower)
Reception volume (lower)
TD rate (lower)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jalen Coker’s path through Holy Cross.
Jalen Coker
97%match
#2
Tre Nixon
NFL Rd 7
96%
#3
Beau Kelly
95%
#4
Will Vereen
95%
#5
Trevon Grimes
92%
Matches Jalen on
Yards per reception
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Adonai Mitchell's junior season at Texas (2023).
Adonai Mitchell
72%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 20
#2
Tejhaun Palmer
All-AACNFL Rd 6
68%
#3
Jason Brownlee
All-Sun Belt
67%
#4
Elijah Sarratt
All-Big TenNFL Rd 4
66%
#5
Lance LeGendre
All-Sun Belt
67%
Matches Adonai on
Height
Yards / reception
Total EPA (college ability)
Differs from Adonai on
Recruiting rating (higher)
EPA / play (adj) (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Ryan Day
Pass share
47.0%
408 pass / 461 run
Plays / game
62.1
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
4.9%
267 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2023–2025
1 coach2023
Ryan Day
Ohio State
2025
Ryan Day
Ohio State
Played his entire career under Ryan Day.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownChicago, IL
Height6'3"
Weight195 lb
Class3
PositionWR
Jersey17
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamOhio State
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc3 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2025)
All-Big Ten
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | All-Big Ten | all_conference | Ohio State | Big Ten | WR |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Ohio State | WR3 | #1597 | #1208 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Ohio State | WR3 | #809 | #583 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Ohio State | Big Ten | WR | 3 | No. 17 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Chicago, IL |
| 2024 | Ohio State | Big Ten | WR | 3 | No. 17 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Chicago, IL |
| 2023 | Ohio State | Big Ten | WR | 3 | No. 17 | 6-3 | 195 lb | Chicago, IL |