Chad Kelly: QB · Ole Miss · #11.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Chad Kelly
Operates within the system without forcing anything. Second year in the same quarterback room at Ole Miss. All-SEC in 2016 made it two straight seasons on the honors list. One game to point at: 465 passing yards and 40 rushing yards against Auburn — Week 9, 2016.
Play style
Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
54.8% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 29.4% conversion-per-dropback — 41.2% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
3 of the team's 24 inside-the-5 carries (12.5%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
Yahoo Sports Oct 25Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
Game log · Week-by-week
2016 season · 9 games
Swipe the table sideways for more columns.
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 34-45vs No. 4 Florida State | 21/39 | 313 | 4 | 3 | 8.0 | 66.8 | 4 TD passes · 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 2 | W 38-13vs Wofford | 20/27 | 219 | 3 | 0 | 8.1 | 93.4 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | L 43-48vs No. 1 Alabama | 26/40 | 421 | 3 | 0 | 10.5 | 67.3 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 45-14vs No. 12 Georgia | 18/24 | 282 | 2 | 0 | 11.8 | 92.5 | Clean 2-TD game |
| Wk 5 | W 48-28vs Memphis | 30/44 | 361 | 1 | 1 | 8.2 | 76.3 | |
| Wk 7 | L 30-34@ No. 22 Arkansas | 18/39 | 253 | 1 | 1 | 6.5 | 55.4 | |
| Wk 8 | L 21-38@ No. 25 LSU | 20/33 | 218 | 1 | 2 | 6.6 | 43.8 | |
| Wk 9 | L 29-40vs No. 15 Auburn | 36/59 | 465 | 3 | 1 | 7.9 | 65.2 | Season-high 465 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 37-27vs Georgia Southern | 16/23 | 226 | 1 | 0 | 9.8 | 85.7 | |
| Total | 205/328 | 2758 | 19 | 8 | 8.4 | — |
Week 3 · 2016
L 43-48
vs Alabama
421 yds · 3 TD · 0 INT · QBR 67.3 · 43 rush yds (14 car)
With G. Wunderlich — 54.7 yards per punt · 3 punts · 68 long · E. Engram — 9 rec · 138 yds · 1 TD
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 318 passing plays (195 completions) against the box score's 328 attempts (205 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
7.8427 of 193 QBsSack rate
4.4%50 of 193 QBsRarely sacked (50 of 193 QBs) and still 27 of 193 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 62.5% completion on 328 attempts · 40 deep completions averaging 29.9 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2016 baseline
No situation moves him more than 28 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
2 seasons under Hugh Freeze, all balanced offenses — 15-10 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2016 season · 9 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 329 | 2.2 | 9.4 | 0.3 |
| Road2g | 236 | 1.0 | 6.5 | 1.5 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 308 | 2.3 | 8.8 | 0.8 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 303 | 1.7 | 8.1 | 1.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Hugh Freeze
Pass share
53.8%
483 pass / 415 run
Plays / game
74.8
12 games
Scheme: Balanced.
Player standing · 2016
Picked for an all-conference team by at least one selector.
How it ended
Two seasons at Ole Miss, 6,800 passing yards — drafted at #253 overall by the Denver Broncos.
Honored in a first season.
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-SEC · 2ND TEAM
All-SEC 2nd team (2016)
Coaching lineage · 2012–2016
2 coachesPlayed for 2 head coaches at 2 schools: Dabo Swinney and Hugh Freeze.
Next stop · NFL
Denver BroncosEntering 10th NFL season
Denver BroncosEntering 10th NFL season
