Senior quarterback for Oregon State. 2022: 939 passing yards, 7 TD, 8 INT.
6′3″ · 209 lb · Menifee, CA
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
Recruiting
PRO recruit
No. 30 nationally · Joined Oregon State
No college snaps yet.
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
4 quarterback for Oregon State. 2022: 939 passing yards, 7 TD, 8 INT.
Chance Nolan
Beats you with his legs when the pocket breaks down. He has spent three seasons in the Oregon State quarterback room. One game to point at: 276 pass yds, 25 rush yds against Montana State — Week 3, 2022.
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
How it ended
Three seasons at Oregon State, 4,153 passing yards — his college career is complete.
His career
He was on the field for 3 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.
Career arc
Coaching lineage · 2020–2022
1 coachPlayed his entire career under Jonathan Smith.
Season context · Team result + system
3 seasons under Jonathan Smith — 19-14 over that span.
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: sack rate (94th percentile). Strength: explosive rate (84th percentile). Concern: interception rate (0th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
6.22111 of 206 QBsSack rate
1.8%12 of 206 QBsRarely sacked (12 of 206), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (111 of 206).
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 62.9% completion on 105 attempts · 15 deep completions averaging 31.7 yds.
Splits · Per-game
2022 season · 5 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 231 | 2.0 | 9.2 | 2.0 |
| Road2g | 122 | 0.5 | 5.9 | 1.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 188 | 1.4 | 7.9 | 1.6 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
JaMarcus Shephard
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2022
Earning real snaps in the rotation without a starting job.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oregon State | 66 | 111 | 59.5% | 939 | 8.5 | 7 | 8 | 136.9 | 69 | -- | -- |
| 2021 | Oregon State | 204 | 318 | 64.2% | 2,677 | 8.4 | 19 | 10 | 148.3 | 70 | -- | -- |
| 2020 | Oregon State | 46 | 91 | 50.5% | 537 | 5.9 | 6 | 2 | 117.5 | 38 | -- | -- |
| Career | 316 | 520 | 60.8% | 4,153 | 8.0 | 32 | 20 | 140.5 | 64 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Oregon State | 16 | 75 | 4.7 | 1 | -- |
| 2021 | Oregon State | 70 | 286 | 4.1 | 3 | -- |
| 2020 | Oregon State | 30 | 147 | 4.9 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 116 | 508 | 4.4 | 5 | -- |
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2022 season · 5 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17vs Boise State | 14/23 | 251 | 2 | 2 | 10.9 | 79.4 | |
| Wk 2 | W 35-32@ Fresno State | 14/27 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 8.1 | 61.7 | |
| Wk 3 | W 68-28vs Montana State | 19/25 | 276 | 4 | 0 | 11.0 | 97.9 | Season-high 276 yds |
| Wk 4 | L 14-17vs USC | 17/29 | 167 | 0 | 4 | 5.8 | 48.7 | 4 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 5 | L 16-42@ Utah | 2/7 | 26 | 0 | 2 | 3.7 | 1.0 | |
| Total | 66/111 | 939 | 7 | 8 | 7.9 | 57.7 |
Play style
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
CFB Index positional classification
Player DNA
Dangerous with both arm and legs — defenses can't just pin the ears back.
His 2022 production profile sits closest to Jalen Mayden’s 2022 season.
Differs from Jalen on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Carlos Davis’s path through Towson.
Matches Carlos on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Katin Houser's junior season at East Carolina (2024).
Matches Katin on
Differs from Katin on
Player DNA
Final Heisman position · 2022
Chance Nolan finished 103rd in our Heisman model, with a 0% chance of a finalist trip.