#18

Gunnar Watson

Senior quarterback for Troy. 2023: 3,557 passing yards, 27 TD, 6 INT.

QB · Troy · Sr. · #18

6′3″ · 210 lb · Butler, GA

CFB Index 51 · #57 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceAll-ConferenceTroy 2023 alumnus

The story

4 quarterback for Troy. 2023: 3,557 passing yards, 27 TD, 6 INT.

The record fills in as he plays.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Six seasons at Troy, 10,259 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

202314 games

All-Sun Beltthird

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

Troy

2018–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

4 honors · 1 category

🎖

ALL-SUN BELT

All-Sun Belt mention (2023)

Coaching lineage · 2018–2023

3 coaches

2018

Neal Brown

Troy

2019–2021

Chip Lindsey

Troy

era →

2022–2023

Jon Sumrall

Troy

era →

Played under 3 different head coaches: Neal Brown, Chip Lindsey, and Jon Sumrall. Multi-era developmental context.

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2018Troy10-3HC: Neal Brown · Run-leaning

2019Troy5-7HC: Chip Lindsey · Pass-leaning

2020Troy5-6HC: Chip Lindsey · Pass-leaning

2021Troy5-7HC: Chip Lindsey · Balanced

2022Troy12-2HC: Jon Sumrall · Run-leaning

2023Troy11-3HC: Jon Sumrall · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

51Rotational starter #57 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: pass yards (93rd percentile). Strength: pass tds (92nd percentile). Concern: rush yards (2nd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#49 / 177 · 73rd pct

12.1%

Interception rate#59 / 177 · 67th pct

0.3%

EPA / dropback#65 / 177 · 64th pct

0.33

Sack rate#68 / 177 · 62nd pct

5.0%

Success rate#91 / 177 · 49th pct

41.6%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#13 / 179 · 93rd pct

3557

Pass TDs#13 / 179 · 92nd pct

Yards / att#47 / 179 · 73rd pct

8.1

Interceptions#77 / 179 · 52nd pct

Completion %#94 / 179 · 47th pct

61.0%

Fumbles lost#76 / 167 · 40th pct

Rush TDs#124 / 179 · 23rd pct

Rush yards#176 / 179 · 2nd pct

-101

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

39th → 64th percentile

Success rate

31st → 49th percentile

Explosive rate

70th → 73rd percentile

Sack rate

13th → 62nd percentile

Interception rate

25th → 67th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

266/433 (61.4%) · 27 TD · 6 INT

433 of 438 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

7.9545 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

5.0%86 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (86 of 212 QBs) and still 45 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

47%of completions

124 comp4.3 yds avg9 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

34%of completions

91 comp14.0 yds avg7 TD

Deep

20+ yds

19%of completions

51 comp31.1 yds avg9 TD

Overall 61.4% completion on 433 attempts · 51 deep completions averaging 31.1 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

No situation moves him more than 38 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-7 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 6/148 (4.1%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

-27 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/138 (2.9%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+38 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 13/124 (10.5%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 14 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	254	2.1	8.8	0.3
Road7g	254	1.7	7.8	0.6

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	249	1.4	8.5	0.6
Weeks 8+6g	260	2.7	8.0	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Gerad Parker

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

All-Conference

Picked for an all-conference team by at least one selector.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

51 · #57 of 140 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	Troy	267	438	61.0%	3,557	8.1	27	6	146.8	47	--	--
2022	Troy	206	335	61.5%	2,814	8.4	14	12	138.7	53	--	--
2021	Troy	140	228	61.4%	1,613	7.1	8	4	128.9	41	--	--
2020	Troy	211	301	70.1%	2,141	7.1	16	7	142.7	55	--	--
2019	Troy	13	22	59.1%	89	4.0	0	0	93.1	--	--	--
2018	Troy	8	12	66.7%	45	3.8	0	0	98.2	--	--	--
Career		845	1,336	63.2%	10,259	7.7	65	29	139.5	49	--	--

Season	Team
2023	Troy	51	-101	-2.0	1	--
2022	Troy	61	-173	-2.8	2	--
2021	Troy	27	-64	-2.4	1	--
2020	Troy	30	-66	-2.2	0	--
2019	Troy	--	--	--	--	--
2018	Troy	4	-18	-4.5	0	--
Career		173	-422	-2.4	4	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 1 · 2023

W 48–30

vs Stephen F. Austin

198 yds · 4 TD · 1 INT · QBR 52.1 · -1 rush yds (2 car)

Edged out Stephen F. Austin at home in a shootout.

With K. Vidal — 248 rush yds (25 car) · A. Martin — 22 rush yds (3 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 6 · Arkansas State · 3&6 · Q4 · EPA +6.54Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 64 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Week 10 · South Alabama · 4&7 · Q4 · EPA +4.67Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 29 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Week 9 · Texas State · 1&25 · Q2 · EPA +4.27Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 47 yds to the TXST 3 for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Army · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +4.13Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for 52 yds Jabre Barber fumbled, recovered by TROY Leo Lowin
Week 4 · Western Kentucky · 2&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.03Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 40 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Week 7 · Army · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.01Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 52 yds for a TD (Scott Taylor Renfroe KICK)
Week 14 · App State · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.92Chris Lewis 51 Yd pass from Gunnar Watson (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)
Week 4 · Western Kentucky · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.73Gunnar Watson pass complete to Devonte Ross for 38 yds to the WKU 37 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Western Kentucky · 3&13 · Q4 · EPA +3.64Gunnar Watson pass complete to Chris Lewis for 29 yds to the WKU 21 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Texas State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA -3.55Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabre Barber for no gain to the TXST 35 Troy Penalty, Personal Foul (Jabre Barber) to the 50 yard line

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 14 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 48-30vs Stephen F. Austin	14/22	198	4	1	9.0	52.1	4 TD passes
Wk 2	L 13-42@ Kansas State	17/32	167	1	1	5.2	55.6
Wk 3	L 14-16vs James Madison	25/46	332	2	1	7.2	29.1
Wk 4	W 27-24vs Western Kentucky	22/35	349	1	0	10.0	61.8
Wk 5	W 28-7@ Georgia State	23/30	256	1	1	8.5	79.1
Wk 6	W 37-3vs Arkansas State	12/21	236	1	0	11.2	75.2
Wk 7	W 19-0@ Army	10/21	227	1	0	10.8	60.3
Wk 9	W 31-13@ Texas State	26/40	392	3	0	9.8	76.4	Season-high 392 yds
Wk 10	W 28-10vs South Alabama	19/27	271	3	0	10.0	67.9	3 TD passes
Wk 11	W 45-14@ UL Monroe	24/39	219	4	0	5.6	76.6	4 TD passes
Wk 12	W 31-24vs Louisiana	17/31	199	3	0	6.4	74.1	3 TD passes
Wk 13	W 35-17@ Southern Miss	21/34	289	2	1	8.5	80.0
Wk 14	W 49-23vs App State	16/24	192	1	0	8.0	62.9
Bowl	L 10-17@ Duke	21/36	230	0	1	6.4	20.9
Total		267/438	3557	27	6	8.3	62.3

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

59.3%Completion %

28.6%Conversion/dropback

43.8%Land short of sticks

0INTs

59.3% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 28.6% conversion-per-dropback — 43.8% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

3/20Inside-5 share

3 of the team's 20 inside-the-5 carries (15.0%).