CFB Zeitgeist Score
27
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by yards / carry at the 33rd percentile.
Hayden Reed
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
335 RUSH YDS · 3 RUSH TD · 74 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Army for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Running back · Army
Returning around him
- 25% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: -2 net (0 in / 2 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Army · Last season: 7-6 · Talent rank #134 · 2026 recruiting class #130
RB · ARMY · AMERICAN ATHLETIC
Hayden Reed
- 4
- #8
- 6-0 | 220 lb
- Tampa, FL
Heisman Heat
#299
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+78%
Up 78% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Army
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Heisman futures · live sportsbook odds
#12 in market ▼ from #11 · 6 books
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8144 | No. 2160 recruit | HighSchool | Army |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (335).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Army
Composite
0.8144
#2160 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Hayden Reed
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
—
Awaiting per-cohort signal
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- National · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Hayden Reed
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 8g
335Rush yards
74Carries
3Rush TDs
Per game
41.9Rush yards
9Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
544.4Rush yards
120Carries
5Rush TDs
To hit 750-yard season (currently 335): needs 83/game over remaining 5.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 335): needs 133/game over remaining 5.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 335): needs 233/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 1.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 2.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 3): needs 3.4/game over remaining 5.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Hayden Reed's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Army, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Backfield contributor against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
74 69th
YDS
335 67th
YPC
4.5 48th
TD
3 73rd
Receiving
REC
2 25th
YDS
2 5th
YPR
1.0 4th
TD
0 70th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 27-30vs Tarleton State | 19 | 88 | 4.6 | 1 | 37 | |
| Wk 2 | W 24-21@ Kansas State | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 | 5 | |
| Wk 4 | L 38-45vs North Texas | 19 | 113 | 5.9 | 1 | 37 | Season-high 113 yds |
| Wk 5 | L 6-28@ East Carolina | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 | 2 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-13@ UAB | 12 | 54 | 4.5 | 1 | 10 | |
| Wk 7 | W 24-7vs Charlotte | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 | 13 | |
| Wk 10 | W 20-17@ Air Force | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 11 | W 14-13vs Temple | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 | 3 | |
| Total | 74 | 335 | 3.5 | 3 | 37 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Army6-6HC: Jeff Monken · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2023Army6-6HC: Jeff Monken · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2024Army12-2HC: Jeff Monken · Run-heavy
2025Army7-6HC: Jeff Monken · Run-heavy
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 335 | #243/735 | 67th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 3 | #204/739 | 73rd pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.5 | #383/735 | 48th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 2 | #414/552 | 25th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 2 | #523/548 | 5th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.12 | #173/362 | 52nd pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 56 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 13.1% | #223/738 | 70th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 74 | #230/739 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 37 | #253/733 | 66th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 3 | #515/540 | 5th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 1.0 | #526/548 | 4th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 0 | #169/552 | 70th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 17.5% | #183/738 | 75th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 16.3% | #204/738 | 72nd pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 15.1% | #345/738 | 53rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 11.5% | #288/738 | 61st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 10.0% | #200/738 | 73rd pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 4.6% | #478/738 | 35th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 1.4% | #467/738 | 37th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 65.5 | 4.5 | 0.5 |
| Road4g | 18.2 | 2.6 | 0.2 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 26.0 | 3.3 | 0.2 |
| Losses3g | 68.3 | 3.9 | 0.7 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 53.7 | 3.9 | 0.5 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
27Below cohort
Concern: rec yards (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing0.12Low (p25–p50) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Hayden ReedArmyJordan BrunsonMiami (OH)· 69% simChavon WrightNorthern Illinois· 67% simTae MeadowsTroy· 65% sim
Rush TDs
Long run
Carries
Yards / carry
Rush yards
Fumbles lost
Receptions
Rec yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Workhorse
Built to take 20+ carries per game. Volume is the value.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Greg Garner’s 2021 season.
Greg Garner
83%match
#2
Malachi Thomas
80%
#3
Samuel Brown V
77%
#4
Tyler Nevens
80%
#5
Cartevious Norton
78%
Matches Greg on
Yards / carry
Total rush EPA (college ability)
Receiving share
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Gabe Ervin’s path through Nebraska.
Gabe Ervin
92%match
#2
DK Billingsley
91%
#3
Gary Brightwell
NFL Rd 6
91%
#4
Dezmon Jackson
91%
#5
Josh Henderson
88%
Matches Gabe on
Weight
Yards per carry
Height
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rahjai Harris's senior season at East Carolina (2023).
Rahjai Harris
77%match
All-AAC
#2
Anderson Castle
74%
#3
Dylan Downing
71%
#4
Josh Henderson
69%
#5
Reggie Love III
68%
Matches Rahjai on
Yards / carry
Receiving share
Weight
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Jeff Monken
Pass share
14.5%
125 pass / 740 run
Plays / game
66.5
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
3.8%
104 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
1 coach2022
Jeff Monken
Army
2023
Jeff Monken
Army
2024
Jeff Monken
Army
2025
Jeff Monken
Army
Played his entire career under Jeff Monken.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownTampa, FL
Height6'0"
Weight220 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey8
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamArmy
ConferenceAmerican Athletic
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Army | RB4 | #299 | #272 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | Army | RB4 | #1072 | #1197 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | FBS Independents |
| 2022 | Army | RB4 | #1081 | #1097 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | FBS Independents |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.