J.J. McCarthy

Former quarterback at Michigan. 2023: 2,991 passing yards, 22 TD, 4 INT.

QB · Michigan · Jr. · #9

6′3″ · 202 lb · La Grange Park, IL

CFB Index 78 · #13 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceWatch-list name (model)Minnesota — drafted 2024, Rd 1, Pick 10, #10 overall

Recruiting

5★

QB recruit

No. 25 nationally · Signed with Michigan

No college snaps yet.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

Former quarterback at Michigan. 2023: 2,991 passing yards, 22 TD, 4 INT.

Signed as a 5-star recruit to Michigan in 2021.
Drafted round 1 by the Minnesota in 2024.

His career, year by year

Career, closed

Gone at #10 overall.

How it ended

Three seasons at Michigan, 6,226 passing yards — drafted at #10 overall by Minnesota.

His career

He was on the field for 3 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.

202110 games

Signed with Michigan5-star out of IMG Academy

2024

Drafted by Minnesotaround 1, pick 10

Career arc

Recruit

★★★★★

#25 national

CFB

College

Michigan

2021–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

R1 · #10

Minnesota · 2024

Featured in The Canon

#52

The 100 Best Players of the CFP Era

Coaching lineage · 2021–2023

1 coach

2021–2023

Jim Harbaugh

Michigan

Played his entire career under Jim Harbaugh.

Where He Ended Up · NFL

MinnesotaEntering 3rd NFL season

#10Rd 1 · Pick 10

MinnesotaEntering 3rd NFL season

View college career stats ↓

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

3 seasons under Jim Harbaugh — 40-3 over that span.

2021Michigan12-2HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-leaning

2022Michigan13-1HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy

2023Michigan15-0HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy, slow tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

78All-Conference level #13 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: success rate (98th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (95th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Success rate#4 / 177 · 98th pct

55.5%

EPA / dropback#10 / 177 · 95th pct

0.54

Explosive rate#20 / 177 · 89th pct

14.5%

Interception rate#70 / 177 · 60th pct

0.4%

Sack rate#87 / 177 · 51st pct

6.0%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#6 / 179 · 97th pct

72.3%

Fumbles lost#1 / 167 · 93rd pct

Yards / att#14 / 179 · 92nd pct

9.0

Pass yards#35 / 179 · 81st pct

2991

Pass TDs#37 / 179 · 78th pct

Interceptions#38 / 179 · 75th pct

Rush yards#71 / 179 · 61st pct

202

Rush TDs#72 / 179 · 55th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

84th → 95th percentile

Success rate

81st → 98th percentile

Explosive rate

78th → 89th percentile

Sack rate

82nd → 51st percentile

Interception rate

96th → 60th percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

236/325 (72.6%) · 22 TD · 4 INT

325 of 332 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

8.8321 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

5.4%100 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (100 of 212 QBs) and still 21 of 212 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

45%of completions

107 comp4.8 yds avg2 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

35%of completions

82 comp13.9 yds avg7 TD

Deep

20+ yds

20%of completions

47 comp27.4 yds avg10 TD

Overall 72.6% completion on 325 attempts · 47 deep completions averaging 27.4 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

+87

percentile points better on third down or later

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-34 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/108 (3.7%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

-30 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/100 (5.0%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+87 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 8/76 (10.5%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 15 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home9g	220	1.7	9.7	0.3
Road6g	168	1.2	8.3	0.2

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-79g	208	1.9	10.2	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	186	0.8	7.6	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Kyle Whittingham

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

Watch-list name (model)

Our Heisman model has him inside the top 25; he is not on a published award watch list yet.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

78 · #13 of 140 QBs

Former five-star. Now #13 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	Michigan	240	332	72.3%	2,991	9.0	22	4	167.4	86	--	--
2022	Michigan	208	322	64.6%	2,719	8.4	22	5	155.0	81	--	--
2021	Michigan	34	59	57.6%	516	8.7	5	2	152.3	--	--	--
Career		482	713	67.6%	6,226	8.7	49	11	160.5	84	--	--

Season	Team
2023	Michigan	64	202	3.2	3	--
2022	Michigan	70	306	4.4	5	--
2021	Michigan	27	124	4.6	2	--
Career		161	632	3.9	10	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 13 · 2023

W 30–24

vs Ohio State

148 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 94.5 · 17 rush yds (4 car)

A wire-to-wire battle — won by 6 at home.

With T. Doman — 52 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 71 LONG · D. Edwards — 34 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT · QBR 98.1 · 31 rush yds (10 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Indiana · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +6.28J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 54 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Week 1 · Alabama · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +4.87Tyler Morris 38 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (PAT failed)
Week 12 · Maryland · 2&7 · Q2 · EPA -4.39J.J. McCarthy pass intercepted Jaishawn Barham return for 11 yds to the MD 11
Week 2 · UNLV · 2&5 · Q3 · EPA +3.90J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 47 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Week 3 · Bowling Green · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.84J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 50 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Week 13 · Ohio State · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.57J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Week 8 · Michigan State · 2&18 · Q2 · EPA +3.55J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 22 yds for a TD (James Turner KICK)
Week 8 · Michigan State · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.44J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Colston Loveland for 20 yds to the MSU 38 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Rutgers · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA +3.41J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 33 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST down
Week 8 · Michigan State · 3&14 · Q1 · EPA +3.32J.J. McCarthy pass complete to AJ Barner for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 15 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 30-3vs East Carolina	26/30	280	3	0	9.3	94.3	3 TD passes
Wk 2	W 35-7vs UNLV	22/25	278	2	0	11.1	96.1	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	W 31-6vs Bowling Green	8/13	143	2	3	11.0	10.6	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 4	W 31-7vs Rutgers	15/21	214	1	0	10.2	96.8
Wk 5	W 45-7@ Nebraska	12/16	156	2	0	9.8	99.2
Wk 6	W 52-10@ Minnesota	14/20	219	1	0	11.0	92.0
Wk 7	W 52-7vs Indiana	14/17	222	3	0	13.1	84.4	3 TD passes
Wk 8	W 49-0@ Michigan State	21/27	287	4	0	10.6	97.7	4 TD passes
Wk 10	W 41-13vs Purdue	24/37	335	0	0	9.1	72.1	Season-high 335 yds
Wk 11	W 24-15@ Penn State	7/8	60	0	0	7.5	96.2
Wk 12	W 31-24@ Maryland	12/23	141	0	1	6.1	53.7
Wk 13	W 30-24vs Ohio State	16/20	148	1	0	7.4	94.5
Wk 14	W 26-0@ Iowa	22/30	147	0	0	4.9	69.9
Bowl	W 27-20vs Alabama	17/27	221	3	0	8.2	91.9
Bowl	W 34-13vs Washington	10/18	140	0	0	7.8	—
Total		240/332	2991	22	4	9.1	82.1

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

68.4%Completion %

42.9%Conversion/dropback

30.8%Land short of sticks

0INTs

68.4% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 42.9% conversion-per-dropback — 30.8% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

1/40Inside-5 share

1 of the team's 40 inside-the-5 carries (2.5%).