Matt Corral

Former quarterback at Ole Miss. 2021: 3,349 passing yards, 20 TD, 5 INT.

QB · Ole Miss · So. · #2

6′1″ · 205 lb · Ventura, CA

CFB Index 78 · #10 of 126 QBsHigh confidencePOTY finalist (model)Carolina — drafted 2022, Rd 3, Pick 30, #94 overall

Recruiting

4★

PRO recruit

No. 63 nationally · Signed with Ole Miss

Statement game412 yds · 6 TDat Vanderbilt (FBS) · W 54-21

Top 0.1% passing TDs game since 2021.

We might be 1-4, but it feels like there's a lot of hope for the future. An average defense would have won several of those games, regardless of some ref ridiculousness or Corral hr/CFB game thread · ▲ 9His career numbers, season by season

The story

Former quarterback at Ole Miss. 2021: 3,349 passing yards, 20 TD, 5 INT.

Signed as a 4-star recruit to Ole Miss in 2018.
Drafted round 3 by the Carolina in 2022.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Four seasons at Ole Miss, 8,302 passing yards — drafted at #94 overall by Carolina.

His career

He arrived as a blue-chip recruit and played like one.

20184 games

Signed with Ole Miss4-star out of Long Beach Poly

202112 games

The role got bigger.

All-SECsecond

2022

Drafted by Carolinaround 3, pick 94

Career arc

Recruit

★★★★

#63 national

CFB

College

Ole Miss

2018–2021

NFL

NFL Draft

R3 · #94

Carolina · 2022

Trophy case · Confirmed honors

What the selectors said

4 honors · 1 category

🎖

ALL-SEC · 2ND TEAM

All-SEC 2nd team (2021)

Coaching lineage · 2018–2021

2 coaches

2018–2019

Matt Luke

Ole Miss

2020–2021

Lane Kiffin

Ole Miss

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Matt Luke → Lane Kiffin. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

Where He Ended Up · NFL

CarolinaEntering 5th NFL season

#94Rd 3 · Pick 30

CarolinaEntering 5th NFL season

View college career stats ↓

2021 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2018Ole Miss5-7HC: Matt Luke · Balanced

2019Ole Miss4-8HC: Matt Luke · Run-heavy

2020Ole Miss5-5HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning, fast tempo

2021Ole Miss10-3HC: Lane Kiffin · Run-leaning, fast tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

78All-Conference level #10 of 126?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: explosive rate (84th percentile). Strength: interception rate (83rd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#27 / 167 · 84th pct

12.6%

Interception rate#29 / 167 · 83rd pct

1.2%

Success rate#56 / 167 · 67th pct

48.5%

EPA / dropback#57 / 167 · 66th pct

0.33

Sack rate#57 / 167 · 66th pct

5.2%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush TDs#6 / 169 · 96th pct

Rush yards#14 / 169 · 92nd pct

614

Pass yards#17 / 169 · 90th pct

3349

Completion %#23 / 169 · 87th pct

67.9%

Yards / att#22 / 169 · 86th pct

8.7

Pass TDs#41 / 169 · 74th pct

Interceptions#51 / 169 · 67th pct

Fumbles lost#82 / 159 · 36th pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Success rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Explosive rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Sack rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Interception rate— 2020 cohort too thin to compare (n=17)

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

256/380 (67.4%) · 20 TD · 5 INT

380 of 386 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

8.3429 of 204 QBs

Sack rate

5.2%74 of 204 QBs

Rarely sacked (74 of 204 QBs) and still 29 of 204 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

47%of completions

120 comp4.1 yds avg6 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

35%of completions

89 comp13.6 yds avg5 TD

Deep

20+ yds

18%of completions

47 comp31.3 yds avg6 TD

Overall 67.4% completion on 380 attempts · 47 deep completions averaging 31.3 yds.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2021 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	296	2.0	10.0	0.1
Road4g	242	1.0	7.0	0.8

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	288	2.3	9.7	0.2
Weeks 8+6g	268	1.0	8.3	0.5

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Pete Golding

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2021

POTY finalist (model)

Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

78 · #10 of 126 QBs

Former four-star. Now #10 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2021	Ole Miss	262	386	67.9%	3,349	8.7	20	5	155.3	67	--	--
2020	Ole Miss	232	327	70.9%	3,352	10.3	29	14	177.8	87	--	--
2019	Ole Miss	105	178	59.0%	1,362	7.7	6	3	131.0	--	--	--
2018	Ole Miss	16	22	72.7%	239	10.9	2	1	184.9	--	--	--
Career		615	913	67.4%	8,302	9.1	57	23	159.3	76	--	--

Season	Team
2021	Ole Miss	152	614	4.0	11	--
2020	Ole Miss	111	516	4.6	4	--
2019	Ole Miss	57	135	2.4	1	--
2018	Ole Miss	13	83	6.4	2	--
Career		333	1,348	4.0	18	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 11 · 2021

W 29–19

vs Texas A&M

247 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 57.6 · -5 rush yds (10 car)

With J. Ealy — 152 rush yds (24 car) · M. Brown — 2 rush yds (1 car)

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 1 · Louisville · 1&6 · Q2 · EPA +6.46Matt Corral run for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
Week 1 · Louisville · 1&6 · Q4 · EPA +6.46Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 6 yds for a TD (Caden Costa KICK)
Week 2 · Austin Peay · 4&2 · Q2 · EPA +5.91Matt Corral pass complete to Dontario Drummond for 49 yds for a TD, (Caden Costa KICK)
Week 6 · Arkansas · 2&3 · Q4 · EPA +5.47Braylon Sanders 68 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Caden Costa Kick)
Week 6 · Arkansas · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +5.43Dontario Drummond 67 Yd pass from Matt Corral (Matt Corral Run for Two-Point Conversion)
Week 6 · Arkansas · 2&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.94Matt Corral pass complete to Braylon Sanders for 59 yds to the Ark 1 for a 1ST down
Week 9 · Auburn · 1&10 · Q4 · EPA -4.45Matt Corral pass intercepted, touchback. Jaylin Simpson return for no gain
Week 11 · Texas A&M · 4&1 · Q2 · EPA -4.21Matt Corral pass complete to Casey Kelly for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2
Week 3 · Tulane · 3&15 · Q2 · EPA +4.03Matt Corral pass complete to Jonathan Mingo for 36 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · Vanderbilt · 3&10 · Q4 · EPA -3.92Matt Corral pass intercepted Ethan Barr return for no gain to the Vandy 1

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2021 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 43-24vs Louisville	22/32	381	1	0	11.9	84.9	Season-high 381 yds
Wk 2	W 54-17vs Austin Peay	21/33	281	5	0	8.5	56.7	5 TD passes
Wk 3	W 61-21vs Tulane	23/31	335	3	0	10.8	97.3	3 TD passes
Wk 5	L 21-42@ Alabama	21/29	213	1	0	7.3	70.0
Wk 6	W 52-51vs Arkansas	14/21	287	2	0	13.7	97.0	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 7	W 31-26@ Tennessee	21/38	231	2	1	6.1	82.7
Wk 8	W 31-17vs LSU	19/24	186	1	0	7.8	80.4
Wk 9	L 20-31@ Auburn	21/37	289	0	1	7.8	63.2
Wk 10	W 27-14vs Liberty	20/27	324	1	0	12.0	72.3
Wk 11	W 29-19vs Texas A&M	24/37	247	1	0	6.7	57.6
Wk 12	W 31-17vs Vanderbilt	28/37	331	2	1	8.9	53.6
Wk 13	W 31-21@ Mississippi State	26/34	234	1	1	6.9	89.1
Total		260/380	3339	20	4	9.0	75.4

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

56.1%Completion %

15.9%Conversion/dropback

69.6%Land short of sticks

1INTs

56.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 15.9% conversion-per-dropback — 69.6% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design