CFB Zeitgeist Score
50
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 99th percentile.
Matthew Caldwell
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
85 PASS YDS · 1 PASS TD · 64 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Texas for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Quarterback · Texas
Returning around him
- 28% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- 6 Texas players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -6 net (22 in / 28 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Texas · Last season: 10-3 (AP #14) · Talent rank #4 · 2026 recruiting class #1
QB · TEXAS · SEC
Matthew Caldwell
- 4
- #18
- 6-4 | 212 lb
- Auburn, AL
Heisman Heat
#224
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2024–2025-95%
Sharp dropoff (-95%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
—
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No recruiting profile is on file for this player. | ||
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Troy -> Texas | 3-star | 0.8400 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Matthew Caldwell
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
62
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=4
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Matthew Caldwell
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 5g
85Pass yards
1Pass TDs
0INT
Per game
17Pass yards
0Pass TDs
0INT
Projected (13g)
221Pass yards
3Pass TDs
0INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 85): needs 364.4/game over remaining 8.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 85): needs 489.4/game over remaining 8.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 3/game over remaining 8.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 3.6/game over remaining 8.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 1): needs 4.2/game over remaining 8.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Matthew Caldwell's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Texas, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Highly efficient against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
8 28th
ATT
11 30th
CMP%
72.7% 88th
Y/A
7.7 71st
Passing Production
YDS
85 27th
TD
1 44th
INT
0 100th
Rushing
CAR
2 14th
YDS
64 57th
YPC
32.0 100th
TD
0 44th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 5 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 2 | W 38-7vs San José State | 2/3 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 7.3 | 90.8 | |
| Wk 3 | W 27-10vs UTEP | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Wk 4 | W 55-0vs Sam Houston | 4/6 | 27 | 0 | 0 | 4.5 | 89.7 | Season-high 27 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 21-29@ Florida | 1/1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 26.0 | 100.0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 45-38@ Mississippi State | 1/1 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 10.0 | 100.0 | |
| Total | 8/11 | 85 | 1 | 0 | 11.9 | 95.1 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2024Troy4-8HC: Gerad Parker · Run-leaning
2025Texas10-3HC: Steve Sarkisian · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 85 | #279/382 | 27th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 1 | #228/407 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 8 | #276/383 | 28th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 72.7% | #47/383 | 88th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.7 | #111/382 | 71st pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 64 | #175/408 | 57th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.43 | #19/200 | 91st pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 244 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 3.2% | #376/428 | 12th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 11 | #287/407 | 30th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 0 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 50 | #47/391 | 88th pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 32.0 | #1/407 | 100th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 2 | #350/408 | 14th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 0 | #230/408 | 44th pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 5.9% | #337/428 | 21st pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 4.8% | #355/428 | 17th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 4.4% | #379/428 | 12th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 2.6% | #377/428 | 12th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 2.4% | #380/428 | 11th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 2.4% | #380/428 | 11th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.8% | #387/428 | 10th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | +0.23 | #80/140 | 44th pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 49 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 5 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home3g | 16.3 | 0.0 | 5.9 | 0.0 |
| Road2g | 18.0 | 0.5 | 18.0 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins4g | 14.8 | 0.2 | 7.3 | 0.0 |
| Losses1g | 26.0 | 0.0 | 26.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 18.8 | 0.0 | 12.6 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+1g | 10.0 | 1.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
50Mid-pack
Elite: completion % (99th). Strength: interceptions (99th). Concern: pass yards (0th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Matthew CaldwellTexasCade KlubnikClemson· 54% simJalen KitnaUAB· 52% simNick VattiatoMiddle Tennessee· 49% sim
Completion %
Interceptions
Yards / att
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Pass TDs
Pass yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Steve Sarkisian
Pass share
50.2%
419 pass / 415 run
Plays / game
64.2
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.6%
288 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2024–2025
1 coach2024
Steve Sarkisian
Texas
2025
Steve Sarkisian
Texas
Played his entire career under Steve Sarkisian.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownAuburn, AL
Height6'4"
Weight212 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey18
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamTexas
ConferenceSEC
Joined2025
Career arc2 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Troy | QB4 | #224 | #390 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Sun Belt |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.