Octavian Smith Jr. is a wide receiver who has not played this season; the last season with a stat line was 2025, at Maryland.
Smith moves the chains on third down. Fourth year in the Maryland receiving corps. On tape: 113 receiving yards and 6 receptions against Wisconsin, Week 4, 2025.
Play style
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
Money down · 3rd-down role
Catch rate says one thing, EPA says another
8 of 20 caught on third down (40.0%) — EPA/target 0.60 vs 0.15 elsewhere (7 conversions).
Catch rate is disclosed context only, never the gate — conversions and EPA/target are. Interception targets carry no attribution row at any source, so EPA/target here is unfixably, slightly inflated.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
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| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 39-7vs Florida Atlantic | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 2 | W 20-9vs Northern Illinois | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | |
| Wk 3 | W 44-17vs Towson | 4 | 103 | 25.8 | 0 | 53 | |
| Wk 4 | W 27-10@ Wisconsin | 6 | 113 | 18.8 | 0 | 48 | Season-high 113 yds |
| Wk 6 | L 20-24vs Washington | 3 | 57 | 19.0 | 0 | 29 | |
| Wk 7 | L 31-34vs Nebraska | 3 | 35 | 11.7 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-20@ UCLA | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 10 | L 10-55vs No. 2 Indiana | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 11 | L 20-35@ Rutgers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 12 | L 6-24@ Illinois | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 0 | 16 | |
| Wk 13 | L 20-45vs No. 18 Michigan | 5 | 62 | 12.4 | 0 | 22 | |
| Wk 14 | L 28-38vs Michigan State | 3 | 29 | 9.7 | 0 | 15 | |
| Total | 43 | 529 | 12.3 | 0 | 53 |
Week 3 · 2025
W 44-17
vs Towson
4 rec · 103 yds
Dominant 27-point win at home against Towson.
With M. Washington — 261 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 94.8 · 29 rush yds (3 car) · 1 TD · B. McFerson — 48.5 yards per punt · 4 punts · 1 inside the 20
The plays that mattered most
Receiver profile · Targets, catch rate, and throw depth
How often he's targeted, and how well it works
Targets
7717% of team targetsCatch rate
55%42 of 77 targetsBehind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
55% catch rate on 77 targets · 17% of the team's targets.
Situational · Share of own targets (PBP, 2025)
Third-down role
4 seasons under Mike Locksley — 24-26 over that span.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 3.4 | 46.3 | 13.0 | 0.0 |
| Road4g | 4.0 | 44.0 | 9.7 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 3.7 | 59.8 | 15.4 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 3.5 | 28.3 | 7.9 | 0.0 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Mike Locksley
Pass share
61.9%
491 pass / 302 run
Plays / game
66.1
12 games
Team sack rate
1.8%
505 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Pass-leaning.
Player standing · 2025
About as many catches a game as a typical FBS receiver who plays every week.
Recognition
Production · CFB Zeitgeist Score
Former four-star. Now #242 at the position.
2026 outlook
Outside shot for All-Big Ten
Based on 2025: #38 of 61 Big Ten WRs
A base rate for the rank, not a forecast of this player: 15% of returning players who ranked #21 or lower at their position in their conference made an all-conference team the next season (95% confidence interval 13–17%).
A stat line in 46 games over four seasons.
Coaching lineage · 2022–2025
1 coachPlayed every college season under Mike Locksley.
