#12

Rocky Lombardi

Senior quarterback for Northern Illinois. 2023: 2,274 passing yards, 11 TD, 7 INT.

QB · Northern Illinois · Sr. · #12

6′3″ · 223 lb · Clive, IA

CFB Index 33 · #107 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceNorthern Illinois 2023 alumnus

The story

4 quarterback for Northern Illinois. 2023: 2,274 passing yards, 11 TD, 7 INT.

Transferred from Michigan State to Northern Illinois in 2021.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Six seasons at Northern Illinois, 7,418 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

He was on the field for 6 seasons. That is rarer than it sounds.

202112 games

Entered the portal

Career arc

Recruit

—

No recruit profile

CFB

College

2 teams

2018–2023

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2018–2023

2 coaches

2018

Rod Carey

Northern Illinois

2019–2023

Thomas Hammock

Northern Illinois

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Rod Carey → Thomas Hammock. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

2023 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2018Michigan State7-6HC: Mark Dantonio · Balanced

2019Michigan State7-6HC: Mark Dantonio · Balanced

2020Michigan State2-5HC: Mel Tucker · Balanced

2021Northern Illinois9-5HC: Thomas Hammock · Run-heavy, fast tempo

2022Northern Illinois3-9HC: Thomas Hammock · Run-leaning

2023Northern Illinois7-6HC: Thomas Hammock · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

33Below cohort / limited sample #107 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: interception rate (84th percentile). Strength: rush tds (86th percentile). Concern: fumbles lost (2nd percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#1 / 177 · 84th pct

0.0%

Sack rate#60 / 177 · 66th pct

4.7%

Success rate#118 / 177 · 33rd pct

39.3%

Explosive rate#121 / 177 · 32nd pct

8.7%

EPA / dropback#123 / 177 · 31st pct

0.19

Box-score rates (8)

Rush TDs#21 / 179 · 86th pct

Pass yards#65 / 179 · 64th pct

2274

Rush yards#85 / 179 · 53rd pct

131

Yards / att#98 / 179 · 44th pct

7.0

Pass TDs#95 / 179 · 44th pct

Interceptions#98 / 179 · 42nd pct

Completion %#123 / 179 · 32nd pct

57.8%

Fumbles lost#161 / 167 · 2nd pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

183/315 (58.1%) · 11 TD · 7 INT

315 of 327 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

6.14108 of 212 QBs

Sack rate

4.1%55 of 212 QBs

Rarely sacked (55 of 212), but Adjusted ANY/A hasn't followed (108 of 212).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

55%of completions

101 comp5.0 yds avg1 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

30%of completions

55 comp13.6 yds avg3 TD

Deep

20+ yds

15%of completions

27 comp31.7 yds avg4 TD

Overall 58.1% completion on 315 attempts · 27 deep completions averaging 31.7 yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2023 baseline

No situation moves him more than 28 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-17 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/98 (5.1%) · league sack rate 4.9% · ~our read

Down 2

-9 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 4/103 (3.9%) · league sack rate 5.2% · ~our read

Down 3+

+28 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/89 (5.6%) · league sack rate 9.1% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2023 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home7g	158	0.4	6.2	0.7
Road6g	195	1.3	8.0	0.3

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	173	0.9	7.1	0.8
Weeks 8+5g	177	0.8	6.9	0.2

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Rob Harley

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2023

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

33 · #107 of 140 QBs

Career stats

Season	Team
2023	Northern Illinois	189	327	57.8%	2,274	7.0	11	7	123.0	31	--	--
2022	Northern Illinois	50	75	66.7%	645	8.6	5	1	158.2	62	--	--
2021	Northern Illinois	200	343	58.3%	2,597	7.6	15	8	131.7	63	--	--
2020	Michigan State	84	158	53.2%	1,090	6.9	8	9	116.4	42	--	--
2019	Michigan State	7	21	33.3%	74	3.5	0	2	43.9	--	--	--
2018	Michigan State	68	154	44.2%	738	4.8	3	3	86.9	--	--	--
Career		598	1,078	55.5%	7,418	6.9	42	30	120.6	48	--	--

Season	Team
2023	Northern Illinois	72	131	1.8	7	--
2022	Northern Illinois	6	1	0.2	1	--
2021	Northern Illinois	94	472	5.0	9	--
2020	Michigan State	31	49	1.6	0	--
2019	Michigan State	4	-3	-0.8	0	--
2018	Michigan State	38	134	3.5	0	--
Career		245	784	3.2	17	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 7 · 2023

W 23–13

vs Ohio

172 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 62.9 · 21 rush yds (6 car)

With T. Foley — 36 AVG · 1 IN 20 · 42 LONG · G. Williams — 55 rush yds (10 car) · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 10 · Central Michigan · 2&12 · Q3 · EPA +6.79Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 72 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Week 6 · Akron · 3&9 · Q1 · EPA +6.76Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 64 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
Week 2 · Southern Illinois · 2&16 · Q4 · EPA +6.58Kacper Rutkiewicz 62 Yd pass from Rocky Lombardi (Trayvon Rudolph Pass to Rocky Lombardi for Two-Point Conversion)
Week 7 · Ohio · 3&2 · Q3 · EPA +5.64Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 58 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)
Week 8 · Eastern Michigan · 3&14 · Q4 · EPA +3.93Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 26 yds to the EMU 36 for a 1ST down
Week 8 · Eastern Michigan · 3&18 · Q3 · EPA +3.77Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Davis Patterson for 20 yds to the EMU 28 for a 1ST down
Week 2 · Southern Illinois · 3&8 · Q3 · EPA +3.64Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Kacper Rutkiewicz for 27 yds to the SIU 36 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Arkansas State · 3&13 · Q1 · EPA +3.57Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 18 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
Week 10 · Central Michigan · 1&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.45Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Trayvon Rudolph for 46 yds to the CMU 34 for a 1ST down
Week 13 · Kent State · 3&10 · Q3 · EPA +3.28Rocky Lombardi pass complete to Grayson Barnes for 16 yds for a TD (Kanon Woodill KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2023 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	W 27-24@ Boston College	13/28	165	0	0	5.9	49.4
Wk 2	L 11-14vs Southern Illinois	23/38	297	1	3	7.8	17.7	3 INTs — rough day
Wk 3	L 11-35@ Nebraska	11/28	73	0	1	2.6	7.4
Wk 4	L 14-22vs Tulsa	4/6	31	0	0	5.2	0.1
Wk 5	L 33-35@ Toledo	21/31	258	2	0	8.3	74.0	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 6	W 55-14@ Akron	10/15	191	2	0	12.7	92.8
Wk 7	W 23-13vs Ohio	15/23	172	1	0	7.5	62.9
Wk 8	W 20-13vs Eastern Michigan	21/33	173	0	0	5.2	32.5
Wk 10	L 31-37@ Central Michigan	20/35	298	3	1	8.5	28.3	Season-high 298 yds
Wk 11	L 17-20vs Ball State	15/26	141	0	0	5.4	45.9
Wk 12	W 24-0vs Western Michigan	9/17	92	0	0	5.4	32.0
Wk 13	W 37-27@ Kent State	9/18	183	1	0	10.2	41.6
Bowl	W 21-19vs Arkansas State	18/29	200	1	2	6.9	65.1
Total		189/327	2274	11	7	7.0	42.3

How he plays

Play style

Balanced passer who operates within the system, without one standout number carrying the profile.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

53.5%Completion %

29.5%Conversion/dropback

43.5%Land short of sticks

0INTs

53.5% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 29.5% conversion-per-dropback — 43.5% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

10/113rd/4th & short

9/19Inside-5 share

10 of 11 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (90.9%). 9 of the team's 19 inside-the-5 carries (47.4%).