CFB Zeitgeist Score
49
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by sacks at the 80th percentile.
TJ Guy
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
17 TACKLES · 2 SACKS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Michigan for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Edge · Michigan
Returning around him
- 40% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
- 6 Michigan players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -16 net (17 in / 33 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Michigan · Last season: 9-4 (AP #18) · Talent rank #11 · 2026 recruiting class #6
EDGE · MICHIGAN · BIG TEN
TJ Guy
- 4
- #4
- 6-4 | 250 lb
- Mansfield, MA
Heisman Heat
#5840
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP DEFENSE AWARD
Nagurski
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR06 · Starter
Starter. A locked-in starting role.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Michigan
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8589 | No. 937 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8589
#937 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on TJ Guy
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about TJ Guy
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the defensive totals stand
Through 10g
17Tackles
2.5Tackles for loss
2Sacks
Per game
2Tackles
0.2Tackles for loss
0.2Sacks
Projected (13g)
22Tackles
3.2Tackles for loss
2.6Sacks
To hit 80-tackle season (currently 17): needs 21/game over remaining 3.
To hit 100-tackle season (currently 17): needs 27.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 6-sack season (currently 2): needs 1.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 10-sack season (currently 2): needs 2.7/game over remaining 3.
Why this is a rare defensive case
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
TJ Guy is trying to climb the steepest award hill in college football: a defensive candidacy. The hook is the disruption profile on Michigan's defense, with 2.0 sacks, 2.5 tackles for loss, and 1 interceptions through the current loaded season. For a defender, the question is never just production; it is whether elite disruption and team context can become nationally undeniable.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
DEF season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
High-disruption defender against FBS defenders.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Tackling & Disruption
TOT
17 55th
SOLO
13 65th
TFL
2.5 75th
SACK
2.0 90th
QBH
2 66th
Coverage & Takeaways
INT
1 65th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | TKL | SOLO | TFL | SACK | INT | PD | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 34-17vs New Mexico | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wk 2 | L 13-24@ Oklahoma | 3 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 4 | W 30-27@ Nebraska | 2 | 2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 6 | W 24-10vs Wisconsin | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 7 | L 13-31@ USC | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 9 | W 31-20@ Michigan State | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 10 | W 21-16vs Purdue | 4 | 3 | 1.0 | 1.0 | — | 0 | Season-high 4 tackles |
| Wk 12 | W 24-22@ Northwestern | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 13 | W 45-20@ Maryland | 1 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Wk 14 | L 9-27vs Ohio State | 2 | 1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | — | 0 | |
| Total | 17 | 13 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1 | 0 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Michigan12-1HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-leaning
2022Michigan13-1HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy
2023Michigan15-0HC: Jim Harbaugh · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2024Michigan8-5HC: Sherrone Moore · Run-heavy
2025Michigan9-4HC: Sherrone Moore · Run-leaning
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
TFL, sacks, and QB hurries are grouped together because defensive Heisman cases are usually built on visible havoc, not on tackle counts alone.
Pass breakups, interceptions, and forced fumbles matter because national awards voters respond to plays that change possessions and highlight reels.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defense | Total tackles | 17 | #2235/4942 | 55th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
| Defense | TFL | 2.5 | #1236/4972 | 75th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Sacks | 2.0 | #491/4972 | 90th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Interceptions | 1 | #308/869 | 65th pct | Takeawaysvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | QB hurries | 2 | #647/1878 | 66th pct | Disruptionvs FBS DEF |
| Defense | Solo tackles | 13 | #1622/4584 | 65th pct | Volumevs FBS DEF |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Road6g | 1.5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.0 |
| Losses3g | 2.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
First half vs Second half
| TKL/g | TFL/g | SACK/g | PD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+5g | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the EDGE cohort
49Mid-pack
Concern: passes defended (17th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · EDGE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
TJ GuyMichiganMarcAnthony ParkerNavy· 63% simDaniel WingateMaryland· 61% simEthan WesloskiNorth Texas· 61% sim
Sacks
QB hurries
Tackles for loss
Solo tackles
Interceptions
Tackles
Passes defended
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Versatile End
Holds up against run and pass without a single dominant trait.
EDGE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Everitt Cunningham’s 2021 season.
Everitt Cunningham
88%match
#2
Bradyn Swinson
NFL Rd 5
88%
#3
TJ Guy
87%
#4
Zion Tupuola-Fetui
87%
#5
Patrick Joyner Jr.
86%
Matches Everitt on
Weight
TFL rate
Sack rate
Differs from Everitt on
Class year (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Aaron Lewis's graduate season at Rutgers (2024).
Aaron Lewis
84%match
#2
MJ Sherman
84%
#3
Van Fillinger
82%
#4
Trey Moore
All-AACNFL Rd 4
75%
#5
Cooper McDonald
75%
Matches Aaron on
Class year
TFL rate
Sack rate
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Sherrone Moore
Pass share
40.9%
340 pass / 492 run
Plays / game
64.0
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.4%
256 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Jim Harbaugh
Michigan
2022
Jim Harbaugh
Michigan
2023
Jim Harbaugh
Michigan
2024era →
Sherrone Moore
Michigan
2025
Sherrone Moore
Michigan
Coaching transition mid-career: Jim Harbaugh → Sherrone Moore. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownMansfield, MA
Height6'4"
Weight250 lb
Class4
PositionEDGE
Jersey4
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamMichigan
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Michigan | EDGE4 | #5840 | #6957 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Michigan | EDGE4 | #2585 | #2336 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Michigan | EDGE4 | #4087 | #3655 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2021 | Michigan | EDGE4 | #4759 | #4526 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Big Ten |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Michigan | Big Ten | EDGE | 4 | No. 4 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Mansfield, MA |
| 2024 | Michigan | Big Ten | EDGE | 4 | No. 4 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Mansfield, MA |
| 2023 | Michigan | Big Ten | EDGE | 4 | No. 4 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Mansfield, MA |
| 2022 | Michigan | Big Ten | EDGE | 4 | No. 4 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Mansfield, MA |
| 2021 | Michigan | Big Ten | EDGE | 4 | No. 4 | 6-4 | 250 lb | Mansfield, MA |