Bowling Green

2-7

Next game: vs Kent State

Kent State’s best edge on Bowling Green is big plays

Each unit against the one it meets, by national percentile this season. A filled dot is the attack and a ring is the defense it meets; the first name is the attack. Further right is better for both.

Bowling Green offense against Kent State defense

weakelite
PassingBowling Green 35th · Kent State 38th
RunningBowling Green 11th · Kent State 47th
Staying on scheduleBowling Green 18th · Kent State 17th
Big playsBowling Green 12th · Kent State 70th
Red zoneBowling Green 32nd · Kent State 5th

Kent State offense against Bowling Green defense

weakelite
PassingKent State 17th · Bowling Green 47th
RunningKent State 0th · Bowling Green 16th
Staying on scheduleKent State 1st · Bowling Green 15th
Big playsKent State 75th · Bowling Green 45th
Red zoneKent State 1st · Bowling Green 40th

Percentiles are against all FBS teams this season.

Key stats

Key stats · 2026 · FBS rank

Each bar is the team’s national rank as a percentile. A longer bar is better, for defense too.

EPA / play121st of 138
+0.01
EPA allowed / play101st of 138
+0.14
Fumbles lost (opp)Tied 4th of 138
8
Fumbles recoveredTied 3rd of 138
8
Rush yards allowed136th of 138
1908
Three-and-out rate135th of 137
16.5%
Points / game132nd of 138
17.8
All 98 stats
Offense / Defense
Total yards
Team
2578286.4/gm4.86/play129th of 13866th of 7012th of 1312th of 13
Opp
3401377.9/gm6.22/play125th of 13866th of 7012th of 132nd of 13
Rush yards
Team
991110.1/gm1.87/play115th of 13859th of 7010th of 1312th of 13
Opp
1908212.0/gm3.49/play136th of 13870th of 7013th of 134th of 13
Rush carries
Team
29733.0/gmTied 57th of 138Tied 28th of 708th of 1312th of 13
Opp
34738.6/gmTied 130th of 13869th of 7012th of 132nd of 13
Rush TDs
Team
60.7/gmTied 130th of 13869th of 70Tied 11th of 1312th of 13
Opp
151.7/gmTied 105th of 138Tied 60th of 70Tied 9th of 132nd of 13
Net pass yards
Team
1587176.3/gm2.99/playTied 107th of 13862nd of 709th of 1312th of 13
Opp
1493165.9/gm2.73/playTied 30th of 138Tied 17th of 703rd of 132nd of 13
Pass attempts
Team
23325.9/gmTied 94th of 13851st of 708th of 1312th of 13
Opp
20022.2/gm9th of 1385th of 701st of 132nd of 13
Completions
Team
15317.0/gmTied 80th of 138Tied 46th of 706th of 1312th of 13
Opp
12914.3/gmTied 22nd of 13812th of 702nd of 132nd of 13
Pass TDs
Team
111.2/gmTied 86th of 138Tied 54th of 70Tied 6th of 1311th of 13
Opp
131.4/gmTied 86th of 138Tied 47th of 70Tied 7th of 132nd of 13
Passer rating
Team
136.7136.773rd of 13849th of 704th of 134th of 12
Opp
139.7139.7101st of 13756th of 709th of 139th of 13
Interceptions thrown
Team
91.0/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 63rd of 70Tied 11th of 134th of 13
Opp
20.2/gmTied 127th of 138Tied 61st of 7013th of 1312th of 13
Sacks (def)
Team
222.4/gmTied 23rd of 138Tied 18th of 70Tied 2nd of 137th of 11
Opp
171.9/gmTied 82nd of 138Tied 41st of 70Tied 7th of 132nd of 11
Tackles for loss
Team
475.2/gmTied 47th of 138Tied 29th of 703rd of 139th of 11
Opp
586.4/gm129th of 13866th of 7013th of 132nd of 11
First downs
Team
14916.6/gmTied 109th of 138Tied 63rd of 7010th of 1312th of 13
Opp
18020.0/gm122nd of 13864th of 7010th of 132nd of 13
3rd-down conv
Team
465.1/gmTied 49th of 138Tied 28th of 70Tied 6th of 1312th of 13
Opp
364.0/gmTied 26th of 138Tied 15th of 701st of 131st of 13
3rd-down att
Team
11612.9/gmTied 30th of 138Tied 13th of 706th of 1312th of 13
Opp
10411.6/gmTied 37th of 138Tied 18th of 70Tied 2nd of 132nd of 13
4th-down conv
Team
40.4/gmTied 121st of 138Tied 63rd of 7012th of 1312th of 13
Opp
111.2/gmTied 108th of 138Tied 57th of 70Tied 9th of 137th of 13
4th-down att
Team
91.0/gmTied 122nd of 138Tied 59th of 7013th of 1313th of 13
Opp
192.1/gmTied 102nd of 138Tied 52nd of 7012th of 134th of 13
Time of possession
Team
279:1331:01/gm7th of 1383rd of 702nd of 1312th of 13
Opp
260:4728:59/gm115th of 13864th of 706th of 132nd of 13

FBS rankings · 2026 season · all stats vs 136 FBS programs

Player stats · 2026 season
Quarterbacks
Player#GCmp/AttPctYdsY/ATDINTRateZPRQBRAdj ANY/ASack%
Pocket Passer · +0.13 EPA/play179150 / 22566.71567
#72 FBS
7.011
#57 FBS
8134.22635.45.75.9
Running backs
Player#GCarYdsAvgTDLongStuff%10+%
Workhorse · -0.19 EPA/play181043713.643019.86.9
Satellite Back · -0.08 EPA/play29652594.002017.714.5
Receivers
Player#GRecYdsAvgTDLong
Possession Receiver · +0.65 EPA/play1882831411.2159
Possession Receiver · +0.23 EPA/play592730511.3177
Complete TE · +0.19 EPA/play—92930410.5023
Complete TE · +0.65 EPA/play882424310.1229

Biggest plays from Bowling Green’s games

Official highlights with our numbers: the plays that moved the chance to win most in Bowling Green’s games this season, whoever made them.

  1. Q1, 3:12 · Western Michigan down 7, ties itCole Cabana runs 82 yards for a touchdownBowling Green at Western Michigan, week 9Q1, 3:12 · Western Michigan 7, Bowling Green 78282-yard touchdown run8282-yard touchdown run82-yard touchdown runC.Cabana rush middle for 82 yards gain to the BGS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play CBS Sports College Football
  2. Q1, 7:00 · Bowling Green tiedJay Kastantin finds Kentrell White for a 7-yard touchdownBowling Green at Western Michigan, week 9Q1, 7:00 · Bowling Green 7, Western Michigan 0Bowling Green opened the scoringBowling Green opened the scoringJ.Kastantin pass complete short right to K.White caught at WMU00, for 7 yards to the WMU00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play CBS Sports College Football
  3. Q1, 3:45 · Iowa State breaks the tieCameron Pettaway returns the kickoff 100 yards for a touchdownBowling Green at Iowa State, week 3Q1, 3:45 · Iowa State 14, Bowling Green 7100Kickoff return touchdown100Kickoff return touchdownKickoff return touchdownCameron Pettaway 100 yd Kickoff Return (Kyle Konrardy Kick)Watch from this playESPN College Football
  4. Q2, 6:36 · Western Michigan breaks the tieBroc Lowry finds Ryan Brotherton for a 6-yard touchdownBowling Green at Western Michigan, week 9Q2, 6:36 · Western Michigan 14, Bowling Green 7Western Michigan took the lead in the second quarterWestern Michigan took the lead in the second quarterB.Lowry pass complete short middle to R.Brotherton caught at BGS00, for 6 yards to the BGS00 touchdown, 1ST DOWN, kick goodWatch from this play CBS Sports College Football
  5. Q4, 1:58 · Bowling Green down 10Amarian Louis intercepts Jay KastantinBowling Green at Western Michigan, week 9Q4, 1:58 · Bowling Green 10, Western Michigan 20Bowling Green turned it over with 1:58 left, trailing by 10Bowling Green turned it over with 1:58 left, trailing by 10J.Kastantin pass intercepted by A.Louis at BGS22 A.Louis return 0 yards to the BGS22 (W.Sharp)Watch from this play CBS Sports College Football
  6. Q4, 6:29 · Bowling Green down 10Justyce Betts intercepts Brennan RidleyBowling Green at Western Michigan, week 9Q4, 6:29 · Bowling Green 10, Western Michigan 20Bowling Green turned it over in the red zoneBowling Green turned it over in the red zoneB.Ridley pass intercepted by J.Betts at WMU07, End Of PlayWatch from this play CBS Sports College Football

All 24 plays from Bowling Green’s games

How scary each game got

Bowling Green lost to Ball State after being 96% to win; the closest win was at Miami (OH), down to 15%

50%L1L2L3L4W5W6L7L8L9

Tap a game for its score and win chances.

Each bar runs from the lowest to the highest chance our model gave Bowling Green during that game; the thick mark is where it started. Numbers are the game week.

Stat leaders

2026 stat leaders · Bowling Green

through 9 games

Dorian Pringle leads Bowling Green with 87 tackles through 9 games.

1. Dorian Pringle LB 87 tackles
2. Kal-El Pascal S 62 tackles
3. Cashmire Lewis LB 45 tackles
4. Eriq George DE 42 tackles
5. Jay Kastantin QB 1,567 passing yards

Roster

Roster

2026
22 players carry a qualified CFB Zeitgeist Score this season so far.
Myles Bradley EDGE #3 of 405
Cashmire Lewis LB #61 of 567
Dorian Pringle LB #96 of 567
Eriq George EDGE #81 of 405
Jeremiah Scoby TE #27 of 132
Kade Kostus EDGE #107 of 405

+16 more

Recruiting and the portal: top commits · who's gone and who's back

How they play

How they play · 2026

Bowling Green fields a struggling offense behind a porous defense.

Offense
13th pct EPA/play
Defense
27th pct EPA allowed

Percentile vs all FBS, based on this season's per-game production. Bar = where this team ranks — right is better.

Player percentiles

Player percentiles · Bowling Green · 2026

Bowling Green reads strongest in passing EPA allowed (top 54%) and explosive plays allowed (top 55%); the crux lives in rushing EPA, where Bowling Green sits at the 11th percentile.

Offense · strengths lead

EPA / play +0.01
13th
Success rate +0.39
18th
Explosive plays +1.13
12th
Rushing EPA -0.03
11th
Red-zone finish +3.40
32nd

Defense · higher bar = harder to play against

EPA allowed +0.14
27th
Success rate allowed +0.45
15th
Explosive plays allowed +1.24
45th
Passing EPA allowed +0.18
47th
Red-zone defense +3.57
40th

Hidden math · special situations

Field position (O) +28.42
32nd
Passing EPA +0.16
35th
Rushing EPA allowed +0.13
16th
Elite · 90+Strong · 70+Average · 40-70Concern · 10-40Bottom · <10
Sources · CFBD tier-2 advanced stats · per-game production · 9 games this season · percentiles vs. up to 138 FBS peers

Home-field advantage · 2018–present · FBS opponents

Bowling Green is worth +2.4 points more at home than on the road.

Bottom third of FBS, 20th percentile of 133 programs

33% at home, 33% away against FBS opponents since 2018 (13-26 home, 17-34 away). Interval ±4.4.

95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
95% intervalmodel 2.3 · books ~3Weakest home edge in FBSStrongest
The stadium and how the home edge is measured

Our model gives every stadium the same flat 2.3-point home edge. The books use about 3. Per-team versions were tested and did not hold up (why). Against the closing line, Bowling Green has beaten the number by −3.2 more at home than away over 98 games. That is inside the ±6.7 that many games can resolve, so the results cannot tell this stadium from the flat number. That is the honest reading of nearly every FBS stadium.

Doyt L. Perry Stadium seats 24,000 and has averaged 60% full (14,427, 27 games reported). Visitors get here easily: a median 163 miles trip since 2018, the 2nd-shortest of 135 FBS venues. There is no travel penalty on visitors here either way. 19% of the 2026 roster (19 of 102 located players) grew up inside 100 miles of the stadium.

Edge = half the gap between average home margin and average road margin, FBS opponents only, non-neutral games since 2018; the interval is 95%. Market line: closing spread, seasons with lines on file. Trip length is straight-line miles from the visiting team's campus to the venue, measured across all 47 home games since 2018.

Home13-26Away17-34Edge+2.4 ±4.4Visitor trip163 mi

More in this tab

How they play

Position battlesReps are split — here's who's actually winning them.

RB room

The carries are split. The job isn’t.

Austyn Dendy and Nakai Amachree split the carries (99/159 vs 60/159) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Nakai Amachree owns the receiving work.

Austyn DendyNakai Amachree
Carries
9960
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
Targets
7/3124/31
p = 0.000 -- real, not noise
Top-5-carry share
23.8%33.2%
concentration alone -- EPA/carry doesn't corroborate, read with caution
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified

WR/TE room

The targets are split. The job isn’t.

Winn Sharp (WR) and Jeremiah Scoby (TE) split the targets (37/82 vs 45/82) -- but the job isn't split the same way. Winn Sharp produces in bigger chunks.

Winn SharpJeremiah Scoby
Targets
3745
the baseline -- every row below is tested against this split, not a flat 50/50
3rd-down targets
10/2414/24
shared -- dots touch, this room really is a committee here
Top-5-catch share
43.0%31.3%
concentration and EPA/target agree -- a real boom/bust split
Screened 2 claims, 1 survived, 1 falsified
Scheme claimsFive specific, testable claims about how this team plays.

Bowling Green’s 4th-quarter offense, before and after garbage time

Raw Q4 EPA/play ranks 20th percentile in FBS. Strip out snaps taken with a blowout margin and it drops to the 17th — the correction is the finding, not a footnote.

league medianRaw 4th quarter · 20th…Competitive snaps o…Worst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · CFBD play-by-play, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

Standard downs vs. passing downs

Does Bowling Green hold up once the down-and-distance turns against them?

43rd percentile success on standard downs, 21st on passing downs — a 22-point gap between the two.

Fragile off scheduleBalanced, both workStruggles even on scheduleStandard-downs reliantBowling GreenWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Fragile off scheduleBalancedWeak both waysStandard downs onlyBowling GreenWeak on standard downsElite on standard downsFalls apart off scheduleHolds up off scheduleHawai'i48th standard · 29th passingUNLV41st standard · 19th passingStanford40th standard · 9th passingEastern Michigan16th standard · 30th passingSan José State17th standard · 2nd passingNew Mexico State14th standard · 36th passingSacramento State13th standard · 6th passingOklahoma State96th standard · 86th passingDuke21st standard · 67th passingFlorida State30th standard · 90th passingRutgers42nd standard · 81st passingKansas52nd standard · 18th passingBoston College63rd standard · 28th passingNorfolk State7th standard · 0th passingLouisville95th standard · 72nd passingMissouri34th standard · 41st passingMemphis92nd standard · 93rd passingGeorgia Southern60th standard · 71st passingOle Miss81st standard · 94th passingJacksonville State82nd standard · 80th passingNorth Dakota State30th standard · 45th passingArizona76th standard · 94th passingUSC79th standard · 97th passingWake Forest75th standard · 96th passingTCU70th standard · 10th passingDelaware59th standard · 64th passingUAB24th standard · 62nd passingMichigan State23rd standard · 55th passingSouth Florida84th standard · 57th passingFlorida International20th standard · 53rd passingNavy89th standard · 17th passingWisconsin25th standard · 22nd passingOregon State97th standard · 70th passingSyracuse57th standard · 39th passingOhio State84th standard · 80th passingBall State31st standard · 52nd passingPittsburgh65th standard · 50th passingColorado16th standard · 65th passingGeorgia Tech53rd standard · 40th passingAuburn14th standard · 69th passingBaylor15th standard · 46th passingNorth Texas95th standard · 84th passingApp State33rd standard · 49th passingIowa State18th standard · 31st passingUTSA91st standard · 33rd passingArkansas71st standard · 24th passingBoise State77th standard · 92nd passingOregon39th standard · 26th passingTulsa49th standard · 7th passingTulane12th standard · 8th passingPurdue57th standard · 82nd passingMiddle Tennessee27th standard · 64th passingVanderbilt41st standard · 32nd passingSan Diego State8th standard · 54th passingLSU86th standard · 98th passingClemson7th standard · 39th passingCentral Michigan36th standard · 9th passingTexas Tech64th standard · 76th passingMichigan10th standard · 89th passingWestern Michigan32nd standard · 27th passingOhio82nd standard · 42nd passingBuffalo9th standard · 11th passingTexas27th standard · 61st passingCoastal Carolina23rd standard · 64th passingColorado State66th standard · 95th passingWyoming78th standard · 48th passingTexas A&M46th standard · 55th passingLiberty93rd standard · 78th passingFlorida Atlantic67th standard · 87th passingLouisiana36th standard · 66th passingSouth Alabama44th standard · 74th passingTroy39th standard · 15th passingSam Houston11th standard · 37th passingNevada28th standard · 27th passingWestern Kentucky22nd standard · 25th passingWashington State19th standard · 5th passingWashington56th standard · 16th passingCalifornia11th standard · 20th passingCharlotte18th standard · 41st passingTennessee75th standard · 12th passingUtah State3rd standard · 76th passingMiami99th standard · 95th passingHouston87th standard · 99th passingUCF29th standard · 45th passingUtah94th standard · 98th passingFresno State25th standard · 84th passingAkron58th standard · 34th passingNorth Carolina89th standard · 73rd passingIllinois73rd standard · 91st passingToledo73rd standard · 52nd passingMinnesota32nd standard · 4th passingRice59th standard · 14th passingTemple50th standard · 68th passingNC State62nd standard · 77th passingVirginia83rd standard · 2nd passingNotre Dame100th standard · 43rd passingMassachusetts35th standard · 38th passingKent State5th standard · 21st passingSouth Carolina70th standard · 56th passingMiami (OH)50th standard · 43rd passingKennesaw State61st standard · 16th passingCincinnati68th standard · 83rd passingIndiana55th standard · 44th passingMaine0th standard · 86th passingNorthern Illinois51st standard · 14th passingBowling Green43rd standard · 21st passingGeorgia State68th standard · 66th passingSouthern Miss48th standard · 7th passingKansas State64th standard · 68th passingUConn72nd standard · 73rd passingAlabama77th standard · 57th passingEast Carolina37th standard · 19th passingOld Dominion1st standard · 36th passingOklahoma4th standard · 50th passingUTEP9th standard · 1st passingNorthwestern88th standard · 88th passingVirginia Tech43rd standard · 91st passingMaryland34th standard · 26th passingArizona State38th standard · 61st passingNew Mexico55th standard · 48th passingNebraska46th standard · 85th passingMarshall69th standard · 32nd passingArkansas State85th standard · 59th passingSMU91st standard · 82nd passingJames Madison45th standard · 77th passingTexas State74th standard · 100th passingMississippi State66th standard · 59th passingUL Monroe47th standard · 11th passingMissouri State52nd standard · 30th passingWest Virginia54th standard · 75th passingLouisiana Tech26th standard · 79th passingUCLA80th standard · 60th passingKentucky90th standard · 51st passingFlorida61st standard · 70th passingUT Martin6th standard · 3rd passingArmy93rd standard · 58th passingMercyhurst2nd standard · 34th passingIowa79th standard · 13th passingPenn State20th standard · 47th passingAir Force98th standard · 23rd passingRobert Morris2nd standard · 5th passingGardner-Webb5th standard · 23rd passingGeorgia98th standard · 89th passingBYU86th standard · 35th passing
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, Connelly success-rate definition
View all FBS teams as a table
TeamStandard-downs percentilePassing-downs percentile
Air Force98th23rd
Akron58th34th
Alabama77th57th
App State33rd49th
Arizona76th94th
Arizona State38th61st
Arkansas71st24th
Arkansas State85th59th
Army93rd58th
Auburn14th69th
BYU86th35th
Ball State31st52nd
Baylor15th46th
Boise State77th92nd
Boston College63rd28th
Bowling Green43rd21st
Buffalo9th11th
California11th20th
Central Michigan36th9th
Charlotte18th41st
Cincinnati68th83rd
Clemson7th39th
Coastal Carolina23rd64th
Colorado16th65th
Colorado State66th95th
Delaware59th64th
Duke21st67th
East Carolina37th19th
Eastern Michigan16th30th
Florida61st70th
Florida Atlantic67th87th
Florida International20th53rd
Florida State30th90th
Fresno State25th84th
Gardner-Webb5th23rd
Georgia98th89th
Georgia Southern60th71st
Georgia State68th66th
Georgia Tech53rd40th
Hawai'i48th29th
Houston87th99th
Illinois73rd91st
Indiana55th44th
Iowa79th13th
Iowa State18th31st
Jacksonville State82nd80th
James Madison45th77th
Kansas52nd18th
Kansas State64th68th
Kennesaw State61st16th
Kent State5th21st
Kentucky90th51st
LSU86th98th
Liberty93rd78th
Louisiana36th66th
Louisiana Tech26th79th
Louisville95th72nd
Maine0th86th
Marshall69th32nd
Maryland34th26th
Massachusetts35th38th
Memphis92nd93rd
Mercyhurst2nd34th
Miami99th95th
Miami (OH)50th43rd
Michigan10th89th
Michigan State23rd55th
Middle Tennessee27th64th
Minnesota32nd4th
Mississippi State66th59th
Missouri34th41st
Missouri State52nd30th
NC State62nd77th
Navy89th17th
Nebraska46th85th
Nevada28th27th
New Mexico55th48th
New Mexico State14th36th
Norfolk State7th0th
North Carolina89th73rd
North Dakota State30th45th
North Texas95th84th
Northern Illinois51st14th
Northwestern88th88th
Notre Dame100th43rd
Ohio82nd42nd
Ohio State84th80th
Oklahoma4th50th
Oklahoma State96th86th
Old Dominion1st36th
Ole Miss81st94th
Oregon39th26th
Oregon State97th70th
Penn State20th47th
Pittsburgh65th50th
Purdue57th82nd
Rice59th14th
Robert Morris2nd5th
Rutgers42nd81st
SMU91st82nd
Sacramento State13th6th
Sam Houston11th37th
San Diego State8th54th
San José State17th2nd
South Alabama44th74th
South Carolina70th56th
South Florida84th57th
Southern Miss48th7th
Stanford40th9th
Syracuse57th39th
TCU70th10th
Temple50th68th
Tennessee75th12th
Texas27th61st
Texas A&M46th55th
Texas State74th100th
Texas Tech64th76th
Toledo73rd52nd
Troy39th15th
Tulane12th8th
Tulsa49th7th
UAB24th62nd
UCF29th45th
UCLA80th60th
UConn72nd73rd
UL Monroe47th11th
UNLV41st19th
USC79th97th
UT Martin6th3rd
UTEP9th1st
UTSA91st33rd
Utah94th98th
Utah State3rd76th
Vanderbilt41st32nd
Virginia83rd2nd
Virginia Tech43rd91st
Wake Forest75th96th
Washington56th16th
Washington State19th5th
West Virginia54th75th
Western Kentucky22nd25th
Western Michigan32nd27th
Wisconsin25th22nd
Wyoming78th48th

Bowling Green by half

1st-half offense ranks 7th percentile in FBS; 2nd-half, 10th — competitive snaps only, garbage time excluded from both halves.

league median1st half · 7th pctile2nd half · 10th pctileWorst in FBSBest in FBS
Source CFB Zeitgeist · advanced team stats, garbage-time adjusted by pre-play margin

How much of Bowling Green’s number is the schedule?

Raw EPA/play through week 10 is 0.01; 16th percentile once opponent strength is stripped out, it's -0.00. The widest gap came in week 5: -0.08 raw vs. -0.03 adjusted.

0.05-0.02-0.10Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10Raw EPA/playOpponent-adjusted
0.05-0.02-0.10Wk 2Wk 6Wk 10RawAdjusted
Source CFB Zeitgeist · season-to-date, opponent-adjusted model
Pass defense by zoneThe part of the field opponents keep attacking.

What this team throws, and gives up, by depth.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Bowling Green’s passing game completes a completion rate above the FBS mean (68.2% vs 67.0% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 219-play sample) — mid-pack, 88 of 136 qualifying offenses.

On short throws (≤19 air yards), Bowling Green’s defense allows a completion rate above the FBS mean (67.6% vs 66.3% league-wide, shrunk toward the mean for its 149-play sample) — mid-pack, 99 of 137 qualifying defenses.

We won’t show a deep-ball (20+ air yards) leaderboard here, on either side of the ball: even a full season of charted plays gives most teams well under 30 deep attempts — too thin to tell a real tendency from noise, so we won’t guess. Same refusal for yards-after-catch allowed and where a team’s attempts land by zone: both measured and both came back statistically indistinguishable from season-to-season noise.

Screened 273 claims, 273 survived · 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=219 short-zone plays, raw rate 68.9%; 2025+ only, charted plays (parse_status='complete'); n=149 short-zone plays, raw rate 69.8%
Havoc & trenchesDefense havoc rate 0.137, 18th percentile

Disruption, run-blocking, and down-and-distance efficiency.

Havoc rate (D) 0.137
18th
Havoc allowed (O) 0.188
5th
Front-seven havoc (D) 0.103
63rd
Secondary havoc (D) 0.034
1st
Stuff rate (D) 0.179
35th
Stuff rate allowed (O) 0.205
27th
Line yards (O) 2.691
12th
Line yards allowed (D) 3.198
11th
Standard-downs success (O) 0.457
36th
Standard-downs success allowed (D) 0.496
13th
Passing-downs success (O) 0.241
7th
Passing-downs success allowed (D) 0.306
39th
Screened 12 claims, 12 survived · 2026 season, FBS only, min. 3 games with data this season
Turnover luckHow much of the margin was skill vs. the bounce.
Fumble luck

89% recovery rate on the fumbles they've forced — well above the ~48% league baseline.

8 of 9 forced fumbles recovered; 5 of 9 own fumbles recovered themselves, 2026 only.

TakeawaysWhat this defense does once it gets the ball.
Takeaway conversion

11% of tipped/broken-up passes have turned into picks — below the ~18% league average, and due for more.

2 interceptions of 19 disrupted passes (17 deflected, 2 intercepted), 2026 only.

PenaltiesWhether flags are costing this team games.
Penalty battle

48 penalties committed, 51 drawn on opponents — netting a 53-yard field-position edge.

429 penalty yards committed vs. 482 drawn on opponents, 2026 season total.

Ratings and comparisons

RatingsWhere the public rating systems put this team.

Where the models rank Bowling Green

CFB Zeitgeist Score

#123

-4.7

SP+

#130

-18.2

FPI

#129

-17.6

Elo

#118

1225

SRS

#127

-15.0

The national models put Bowling Green between 118th and 130th nationally — CFB Zeitgeist agrees, slotting them 123rd.

National rank of 138 FBS teams · 2026 season. SP+/FPI/SRS published; Elo & CFB Zeitgeist Score ranked by rating.

Comparable teamsPrograms built like this one — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, roster size. Not a stat match.

Most similar programs · Bowling Green

Reads like

Matched on how the programs are built — tier, prestige band, kind of fanbase, conference, voice and roster size — not on this season's stats. A calibration, not a prediction.

WeatherHow warm or cold its home and road games usually are.

Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH

Usual during the game around Nov 10: 46°, between 37° and 55° in about 7 in 10 games (29 games since 2016).

Road games since 2016: the middle game was 62°, and 8 in 10 ran between 34° and 85° (57 of 59 road games, at stadiums we cover).

HomeRoad

What a usual Saturday feels like here, by kickoff time

Airport readings near each stadium during the game, not on the field. How we measure

Weather observations: National Weather Service, through the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at Iowa State University. Rain: NOAA MRMS radar and CoCoRaHS volunteer gauges (CC BY 4.0). Game data: CollegeFootballData.com.

This page may include content derived from public news sources, social media, and fan communities. We relay these sources as-is — we are not reporting them. Sources may be summarized or quoted imperfectly; for anything that matters, go look at the original source directly. The original source may also be wrong. Text written by our model says so in a line beneath it, and it can get facts wrong. All analysis is editorial opinion, not professional reporting. Data sources · About this site