Bill Belichick

Head coach · North Carolina
2nd season · since 2025

At school8-12since 2025 · 4-4 this seasonHot seatWarm17% · 25th of 132 jobsLast gameL 35-38vs Miami · Oct 31Nextat UConnSat Nov 7 · 12 pm ET · CBS Sports Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

4-4, lost 2 straight, on track for 6-6 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 35-38 vs. Miami Sat Oct 31
  • This season4-4 lost 2 straight
  • Hot seat17% 25th of 132
  • On track for6-6 regular season
  • Nextat UConn Sat Nov 7
  • Stature54th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 0.2% → <0.1% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Win and he’s at 14%. Lose and he’s at 20%.

at UConn, Sat Nov 7, 12 pm ET CBS Sports Network · UConn is 4-4 · First meeting between Belichick and Jason Candle as head coaches · North Carolina’s chance to win: 58% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf North Carolina wins: 14%, 26th of 132Now: 17%If North Carolina loses: 20%, 22nd of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If North Carolina wins: 14%, 26th of 132
  • Now: 17%
  • If North Carolina loses: 20%, 22nd of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

17% chance he’s out after the season · 25th of 132 FBS head coaches · Warm

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow12% had they won12% had they wonLoss 20%Win 14%44%22%30%30%28%19%13%18%17%Pre1W vs. TCUW2W vs. East Tennessee StateW3L at ClemsonL4L vs. Notre DameL5W at PittsburghW6W at DukeW7L vs. SyracuseL8L vs. MiamiL9Chance to win at UConn58%10Chance to win vs. Louisville30%11Chance to win at Virginia56%12Chance to win vs. NC State59%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow12% had they wonLoss 20%Win 14%44%17%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 4-828%
  2. 5-720%
  3. 6-614%
  4. 7-59%
  5. 8-46%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 5%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 6%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 60th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 53rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 5%, 50th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 30%, 12th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 30%, 15th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 28%, 16th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 19%, 22nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 13%, 35th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 18%, 25th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 17%, 28th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 17%, 25th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 3▲ $20.8M buyout · 2.1× his pay

Hottest: 2026, week 3 (30%, 12th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter $20.8M buyout · 2.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    $20.8M buyout · 2.1× his pay, a multiple among the smallest in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-8 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    4-4, outscoring opponents by 22

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 4-4 after 8 games
8% pushed out over results · of 504 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$20,833,333 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.1× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 8%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Do you work for a tabloid?”

Bill Belichick addresses reports of high-profile split with Jordon Hudson

CBS Sports headline · Mon Nov 2
GoHeels · 4,881 views by Wednesday

More of him this week

Press conference, UConn weekMon Nov 2 · GoHeels · 244 views by Wednesday

Dozens of stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from many outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 57th of 138 per play. Defense: 44th.

Offense, per play57thOffense, big plays114thDefense, per play44thDefense, big plays allowed7thWorstBest
Offense, per play57th of 138Offense, big plays114th of 138Defense, per play44th of 138Defense, big plays allowed7th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is North Carolina. The other two rows are where North Carolina stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at UConn (4-4)CBS Sports Network58%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. Louisville (5-3)30%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Virginia (4-5)56%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. NC State (4-4)59%

Percent: North Carolina’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where North Carolina stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

48th54th60thPreseason54thTCU W 15-10TCU W 15-10W 15-10TCU53rdEast Tennessee State W 35-3East Tennessee State W 35-3W 35-3East Tennesse…54thClemson L 20-28Clemson L 20-28L 20-28Clemson54thNotre Dame L 26-37Notre Dame L 26-37L 26-37Notre Dame56thPittsburgh W 21-17Pittsburgh W 21-17W 21-17Pittsburgh55thDuke W 24-20Duke W 24-20W 24-20Duke54thSyracuse L 30-31Syracuse L 30-31L 30-31Syracuse51stMiami L 35-38Miami L 35-38L 35-38Miami54th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 35-38 vs. Miami48 headlines · 9th of 138Bill Belichick, Jordon Hudson breakup report catches UNC staffers off guard USA Today
  2. Oct 19–25L 30-31 vs. Syracuse24 headlines · 20th of 138What Bill Belichick Said After UNC's Loss vs. Syracuse On3
  3. Oct 12–18W 24-20 at Duke26 headlines · 15th of 138Bill Belichick earns biggest college coaching win with upset over ranked opponent Yahoo Sports
  4. Oct 5–11W 21-17 at Pittsburgh27 headlines · 13th of 138Bill Belichick gets first ranked win at hobbled No. 25 Pitt. Did it prove anything? The New York Times
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 26-37 vs. Notre Dame43 headlines · 9th of 138Bill Belichick’s Tar Heels are getting better, but no one seems to care The New York Times
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltNo game22 headlines · 19th of 138UNC chancellor says support for Bill Belichick ‘comes with expectations around conduct’ The New York Times

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from North Carolina’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.