The absolute funniest Congressional race is former New York Jets kicker Jay Feely running in Arizona against his former Jets team doctor.
The absolute funniest Congressional race is former New York Jets kicker Jay Feely running in Arizona against his former Jets team doctor.
I agree with you, I think Arizona gets the win if Tech had to play Hammond.
One hopes that he'll get it together eventually, but it sure doesn't seem to have happened yet.
Fan mood · last 3 weeks · more upbeat than 3 in 4 FBS fan bases
Offense: 26th of 138 per play. Defense: 16th.
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Arizona. The other two rows are where Arizona stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.
4 games left
Fri Nov 6vs. TCUTCU (4-4)74%
Sat Nov 14vs. UTAHUtah (8-0)48%
Sat Nov 21at KSUKansas State (4-4)79%
Sat Nov 28vs. ASUArizona State (4-4)86%
Percent: Arizona’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.
How the season got here
Where Arizona stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).
Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 34-24 at WSUWashington State3 headlines · 68th of 138
Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.
Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.
What drives his number
The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.
▲ Higher
His 3rd season at Arizona
▲ Higher
His team is 6-2, outscoring opponents by 16.0 points a game · AP-ranked
▼ Lower
13-12 over his previous two seasons here
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do
Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.
The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.
Fans
Fan chatter
Oct 31L 26-34 at Texas TechNext year is gonna be so ass when fifita isn’t here to get Brennan wins against the bad teamsARIZArizona fan
Oct 24W 39-3 vs. Iowa StateGotta respect Brennan for trying to build any type of cultureARIZArizona fan
Oct 10W 52-31 at West VirginiaI hope Brennan and Co have something big cooking for next year's QB because without Noah I genuinely don't know how this team wins games.ARIZArizona fan
Earlier weeks
Oct 3W 34-7 vs. CincinnatiI am happy with the dub. Happy with Brennan. However Fifita still being in the game seems ultra risky here. WTF?ARIZArizona fan
Sep 26W 34-24 at Washington StateDid that Navy flair who kept saying we need to fire Brennan just tip on out or what?ARIZArizona fan
Sep 19W 42-17 vs. Northern IllinoisI was feeling good about Brennan after last season but if we somehow lose this one I may be back on the "fire this bum" train.ARIZArizona fan
Sep 12L 17-28 at BYUBack on the fire Brennan train. Absolute dumb decision to go for itARIZArizona fan
A few stories about him this week
Fri Nov 6: TCU
74th of 104 FBS head coaches · from a few outlets and r/CFB
Gold: stories about him each day. W and L: his games.
Gold: stories we tracked each season, drawn on a square-root scale so a quiet year still shows. Hatched: before we started tracking (2020). Earlier years had thinner coverage, so compare within a stop, not across decades.
Stories are headlines grouped by what they are about, counted through Nov 4.
Stats
Big games
Pick a job to see its years on their own.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
’17 L · blew a 10-pt lead’18 L · blew a 14-pt lead’19 L · blew a 6-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
1-8 11.1%ATS 5-3-1 9 of 9
National Program
5-14 26.3%ATS 9-10 19 of 19
Regional Program
23-25 47.9%ATS 25-20-3 48 of 48
Signature games
0-8 vs. AP top 25 · 0-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’17’18’19’21’23
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WBS
Boise State · 2020
34-20
UpsetQuality opponentConference title game
WAR
Arkansas · 2019
31-24
UpsetQuality opponent
WWY
Wyoming · 2017
20-17
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LBA
Ball State · 2020
13-34
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
LCC
Coastal Carolina · 2023
14-24
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
LEM
Eastern Michigan · 2022
27-41
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-1 against his rivals at Arizona. Winless in 3 tries against Kalani Sitake.
’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 L · blew a 10-pt lead’26 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 3-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
2-3 40.0%ATS —
National Program
8-10 44.4%ATS 8-10 18 of 18
Regional Program
6-1 85.7%ATS 2-5 7 of 7
Signature games
2-7 vs. AP top 25 · 1-0 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAS
Arizona State · 2025
23-7
RivalQuality opponent
WIS
Iowa State · 2026
39-3
Quality opponent
WUT
Utah · 2024
23-10
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LAS
Arizona State · 2024
7-49
Rival
LSM
SMU · 2025
19-24
Bowl/CFP stakes
LUC
UCF · 2024
12-56
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
The big-game ledger
How he does in the games that matter most — rivalry record, performance broken out by real opponent tier, one-score games, and his toughest historical matchup.
1-1 against his rivals. Winless in 4 tries against Kalani Sitake.
’17 L’24 L · blew a 7-pt lead’25 L · blew a 10-pt lead’26 L · blew a 7-pt lead
covered the spread
0% win rate across a real, 4-meeting series — short of the bar this site uses before badging a series “Nemesis.” Shown here as the toughest matchup on record, not an algorithmic crown.
Performance by opponent class
Power Program
3-11 21.4%ATS 7-6-1 14 of 14
National Program
13-24 35.1%ATS 17-20 37 of 37
Regional Program
29-26 52.7%ATS 27-25-3 55 of 55
Signature games
2-15 vs. AP top 25 · 1-1 vs. the top 10
Every AP-ranked regular-season opponent, by rank (#1 at top) and year
’17’18’19’21’23’24’25’26
win loss · higher = higher-ranked opponent · dashed line = top 10
Signature wins
WAS
Arizona State · 2025
23-7
RivalQuality opponent
WBS
Boise State · 2020
34-20
UpsetQuality opponentConference title game
WAR
Arkansas · 2019
31-24
UpsetQuality opponent
Signature losses
LAS
Arizona State · 2024
7-49
Rival
LBA
Ball State · 2020
13-34
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
LCC
Coastal Carolina · 2023
14-24
UpsetBowl/CFP stakes
Tags describe each game; they aren’t scores. The weighting that picks these games is still being tested.
ATS is his record against the spread: did his team beat the closing betting line, winning by more than it or losing by less? Lines start in 2013; a dash means fewer than 6 of those games had one. One-score games carry no spread record: a big favorite that wins a close game has almost always failed to cover, so that number would say nothing about the coach.
Passed more than the situation called for under Babers and Doege.
1,645 run and pass snaps at Arizona, 2024–2025, his own games, one row per offensive coordinator. Each cell is how much more often he passed than the rest of FBS did in the same situation (field zone, down, distance, score, quarter, same season), in percentage points.
passed moreran morewithin noise (95% range includes 0)
Pass rate, stint by stint
Where each stint’s offense sat between run-first and pass-first, and how far it moved from one season to the next, against the FBS-wide average of 41% pass. The band is that stint’s real season-to-season range, not a fixed-width box.
Pass rate — share of offensive plays that were pass attemptsfirst covered seasonmost recent covered seasonfull season-to-season range (3+ covered seasons)
How much that is, against every other stint
Season-to-season pass-rate range for all 449 FBS coaching stints with at least three covered seasons, 2004–2025.
Typical stint7.010.3 median14.8middle half of all stints
San José State15.5pt#96 of 449 · more than most
Arizona7.8pt#308 of 449 · a typical amount
Building the roster
Six numbers on how he actually stocks a roster, from signing day to draft day.
His 2 ranked Arizona classes of his own have averaged #46 nationally — best #42, worst #50.
SJSan José State
2018
#94
His class
2019
#117
His class
2020
#114
His class
2021
#119
His class
2022
#75
His class
2023
#111
His class
ARArizona
2024
#85
Transition
2025
#50
His class
2026
#42
His class
Across every program: 8 ranked classes of his own, averaging #90 nationally.
His class — he had the full signing cycleTransition — he was hired mid-cycle
Rank is each signing class’s national recruiting rank (#1 is best). Only a class he had a full signing cycle to build counts as his; inherited and mid-transition classes still show here, faded, but stay out of the average.
Followed him here
at least5players
SJSan José State→ARArizona2024
At least 5 players followed him from San José State to Arizona.
Anthony Garcia QB
Quali Conley RB
Ryan Stewart OL
Sam Olson TE
Tre Smith DL
Players who transferred from his old program to his new one through the portal in the same year he made the move. Name-matching across data sources misses some, so every count is a floor, not an exact number.
Roster ownership
Roster ownership
87%His own players
of his 2026 roster arrived on his watch — 96 of 110 players. The other 14 are holdovers from before he was hired.
Arrived under him 96Inherited 14
Of his own players on this roster, 28% came through the transfer portal; the rest are non-portal arrivals (high-school signees, JUCO transfers, walk-ons).
New players each season, 2024–2026
40% of his 152 new players since 2024 came through the portal (FBS programs, same seasons: 29%) — the 10th-highest share of the 68 Power 4 programs. His share was 48% in 2024 and 35% in 2026.
Graded on the players who arrived and the players who left together, his portal seasons came out about typical for FBS in all 3 seasons graded. our read
202420 of 42Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202524 of 62Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
202617 of 48Portal grade: about typical for FBS that season
Came through the portalNon-portal arrivalsFBS-wide share that season
Each player counts once, in the season he arrived. 2021, the first season of portal tracking here, is left off because its arrival records look incomplete (about 31 new players per FBS team, against 52 in 2022). Portal grade: the site’s position-value-weighted scoring (the same engine as the Portal Heat feed and the “Who won the portal” grade): the value of the players who came in minus the value of the ones who left, ranked against every FBS program’s grade that same season. A season with fewer than 4 transfers in and out is not graded.
“His own” means the player arrived while he was head coach; “inherited” means a predecessor brought him in.
Size up front
Size up front
+8 lbAgainst the FBS average
Offensive linemen on his Arizona rosters have averaged 8 lb heavier than the FBS average (2024–2026) — heavier than 89% of FBS coaching runs since 2010. In the three seasons before he arrived, Arizona’s line averaged 5 lb heavier than the FBS average.
San José State2017–2023−12 lb
Arizona2024–2026+8 lb
−20−10FBS avg+10lb
His seasonsSame program, the seasons before he arrivedMiddle half of FBS coaching runs since 2010
Average listed weight of every offensive lineman on each season’s roster, holdovers included, against every FBS roster that season (2010 on; a program needs 3+ seasons under him to appear). Weights are the ones programs publish, and programs list differently. This describes size only — not scheme, and not quality.
Where he recruits
CATop state
is his biggest recruiting state: 27 of 67 signees (40%) across his 2024–2026 tenure, drawn from 12 states in all. Next: AZ (15).
Where his signees came from, 2024–2026 (67 high-school, JUCO and prep signees)
66% of his signees come from CA and its 3 border states (AZ 15, NV 1, OR 1).
Off this map: 3 signees to the east (AL, FL, others). 1 signee without a plottable hometown location not shown.
By region
West
48
South
18
Roster distance from campus (Arizona Stadium, AZ)
median hometown distance
621 mi
within 100 mi
13%
within 500 mi
46%
beyond 1,000 mi
23%
105 of 110 roster players with a known hometown (96% coverage)
The map counts signed recruits across his tenure; the distance figures cover his current roster, transfers and walk-ons included. Two different groups, kept separate on purpose.
The NFL pipeline
The NFL pipeline
8Drafted
players drafted into the NFL off his teams here. Most were someone else’s recruits: 6 arrived under Jedd Fisch (4), Kevin Sumlin (2); 2 he brought in himself. 1 went in the first round.
His recruits 2Inherited 68 roster-verified · 0 estimated
Most recent picks first
Year
Pick
Player
Pos
NFL team
Note
2026
R2.06
Treydan Stukes
Safety
Las Vegas Raiders
recruited under Kevin Sumlin
2026
R4.31
Genesis Smith
Safety
Los Angeles Chargers
recruited under Jedd Fisch
2026
R5.10
Dalton Johnson
Safety
Las Vegas Raiders
recruited under Jedd Fisch
2026
R7.39
Michael Dansby
Cornerback
Seattle Seahawks
2025
R1.08
Tetairoa McMillan
Wide Receiver
Carolina Panthers
recruited under Jedd Fisch
2025
R2.05
Jonah Savaiinaea
Offensive Guard
Miami Dolphins
recruited under Jedd Fisch
2025
R6.10
Tyler Loop
Place Kicker
Baltimore Ravens
recruited under Kevin Sumlin
2025
R7.29
Jacory Croskey-Merritt
Running Back
Washington Commanders
A pick counts toward his tenure when the player’s final college season was one he coached, a checkable rule rather than a claim about who developed the player. A blank note means the player is on a verified roster and arrived on his watch. “Estimated” means no roster record, so the final season is assumed to be the year before the draft.
News
Stories about him
Headlines, grouped by what they are about. Each is the outlet’s own.
I did. I did. I bought a quick round and then I left
Obviously Saturday night, what an awesome afternoon
He’s different and that difference showed up today in a super impactful way
That just speaks to the character of our defense and this team
All I’m thinking about is let’s pack Casino Del Sol Stadium in two weeks. This team has been playing their tails off. These players love the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the city of Tucson and it’s time the city of Tucson to choose them
The only difference is our Thursday routine is going to change because we’re flying out Thursday, so we will practice Thursday morning
He’s a football guy and he’s obviously a great coach
All I’m thinking about is let’s pack Casino Del Sol Stadium in two weeks. This team has been playing their tails off. These players love the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the University of Arizona. They keep choosing the city of Tucson and it’s time the city of Tucson to choose them
We love Tre; he’s been such an awesome addition since he came over here a couple years ago. He’s obviously an important part to what we do offensively and we want to support him every way we can
Isaiah [Mizell] has been so different, how he has attacked these last nine months, his process, his detail, his effort and it’s showing up. And he’s playing better, and that’s really exciting
Time was short in the game, and I just have a lot of faith in Noah [Fifita], and he delivered a strike, but like I said, BYU made a great play, a great tackle in space and stopped us short of the sticks
Noah [Fifita] leads the way in terms of like that high profile player that’s chosen to stay, but I think this city appreciates loyalty […] and no one has been more loyal than Noah Fifita
Hired into programs rated 29 to 29 (National Program III tier). Rough match, not calibrated yet — ranked on what the job inherited alone. Coaches hired into this same job aren’t used as comps.
Of the 5 closest comps, 3 had the program higher than he found it by the end of his run and 2 lower. Median stay: 3 seasons.
Every coach hired into a National Program III job since 1990 (65): typically -1.8 after year 1, -3.2 after year 2.
Brent Brennan moved Arizona from National Program III to National Program II in 3 seasons.
+2.2 pts over 3 seasons · top 24% of 3-5-season tenures (717 in sample)
12th-best Arizona tenure of 20 by the numbers.
Followed Jedd Fisch (2021–2023).
System Shift, on arrival
Season
2024
2025
2026
Trend
Record & result
Record
4-8
9-4
6-2
Postseason
—
L bowl
—
Coordinators
OC
Dino Babers
Seth Doege
Seth Doege
DC
Duane Akina
Danny Gonzales
Danny Gonzales
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
17
64
84
Defense
18
78
89
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
50.6
45.5
48.6
Red-zone pass%
44.3
49.6
50.7
4th-down go%opp. territory
24.3
36.0
28.6
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-10.7 pts
#152 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-3.3 pts
#118 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
A typical class-year mix of incoming transfers.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 236 lbs
across 62 of 76 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
+0.6 lbs
#221 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Jr
#160 of 255 · middle half
Avg. portal rating
3.0★
rated arrivals only
Top states: CA (20), TX (9), AZ (7), GA (6), IL (3)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
56.2
position-weighted
Talent lost
61.7
position-weighted
Net
-5.5
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Braedyn Locke (QB) from Wisconsin
Biggest loss: Brayden Dorman (QB) to the portal
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Dino Babers → Seth Doege · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 50.6% → 45.5% (-5.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 56% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
DC: Duane Akina → Danny Gonzales · 2025
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Buys Tight end via the portal
71%
#21 of 188 stints
Buys Edge via the portal
73%
#30 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2025: Lost to SMU 19-24 Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Tetairoa Mcmillan (2024)
Brent Brennan moved San José State from Regional Program IV to Regional Program III in 7 seasons.
−1.7 pts over 7 seasons · bottom 37% of 6-9-season tenures (368 in sample)
11th-best San José State tenure of 19 by the numbers.
Followed Ron Caragher (2013–2016) · succeeded by Ken Niumatalolo (2024–now).
System Shift, on departure
System Shift, on arrival
swipe to see every season
Season
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
Trend
Record & result
Record
2-11
1-11
5-7
7-1
5-7
7-5
7-6
Postseason
—
—
—
L bowl
—
L bowl
L bowl
Coordinators
OC
Andrew Sowder
Kevin McGiven
Kevin McGiven
Kevin McGiven
Kevin McGiven
Kevin McGiven
Kevin McGiven
DC
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Derrick Odum
Outcome — opponent-adjusted efficiency percentile
Offense
2
7
60
54
17
56
81
Defense
13
27
26
66
73
43
52
Tendencies — play-by-play, neutral script
1st-down pass%
37.0
52.0
60.5
48.5
48.3
55.6
40.5
Red-zone pass%
50.7
51.2
46.2
44.9
42.3
54.0
30.9
4th-down go%opp. territory
33.3
21.4
28.6
25.9
18.9
30.0
27.3
Recruiter or developer?
Performs about as expected for his recruiting talent, on both sides of the ball.
Offense vs. talent
-3.8 pts
#128 of 208 · middle half
Defense vs. talent
-1.3 pts
#113 of 208 · middle half
Recruiting talent is team-wide (no offense/defense split exists in the source data) -- both sides are scored against the same talent input, only the outcome is side-specific.
Roster construction · portal era
Barely touches the portal — recruits and develops his own.
Portal arrivals
24
2.9★ avg rating
Portal departures
28
left via the portal
Net portal flow
-4
#145 of 187 FBS stints
Who they bring in
Brings in smaller-than-position-typical players than most.
Recruits older, more experienced transfers than most.
Avg. size (raw)
6′2″, 219 lbs
across 18 of 24 arrivals — unadjusted for position mix
Size vs. position-typical
-6.5 lbs
#256 of 255 · bottom quarter
Avg. class year
Sr
#1 of 255 · top quarter
Top states: CA (14), HI (3), OH (1)
Who won the portal our read
Talent added
52.8
position-weighted
Talent lost
48.6
position-weighted
Net
+4.2
arrivals minus departures
Best addition: Jay Butterfield (QB) from Oregon
Biggest loss: Alec Trujillo (QB) to Iowa Central C.C.
Position-value-weighted (QB/CB weighted highest, depth-decayed within each position) — the same scoring engine as the Portal Heat feed, not a separate grade.
Does the system survive a coordinator change?
OC: Andrew Sowder → Kevin McGiven · 2018
1-season window either side — numbers shown, not enough to badge a verdict.
1st-down pass rate: 37.0% → 52.0% (+15.0 pts)
Confound, shown not hidden: only 99% of offensive production returned the year the coordinator changed — the roster turned over at the same time, not just the play-caller.
Where the roster comes from, by position
Grows Running back from high school
83%
#186 of 208 stints
Grows Edge from high school
91%
#190 of 208 stints
Postseason detail2020: Lost to Ball State 13-34 Offerpad Arizona Bowl2022: Lost to Eastern Michigan 27-41 Famous Idaho Potato Bowl2023: Lost to Coastal Carolina 14-24 EasyPost Hawaiʻi Bowl
3 NFL Draft picks: Jermaine Kelly (2018), Josh Oliver (2019), Viliami Fehoko (2023)
1 player-season honored (All-America / national award): Cade Hall (2020)
34-48
All-time wins
Wins at programs this site tracks, 1936–present — one consistent count for every coach, not each program’s own historically reported total.
San José State
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers
Miami Dolphins
Baltimore Ravens
Washington Commanders
