Jeff Brohm

Head coach · Louisville
4th season · since 2023 · Purdue before

At Louisville33-15since 2023 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool1% · 100th of 132 jobsLast gameW 52-24vs Stanford · Oct 31Nextat Georgia TechSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · ACC Network
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, won 3 straight, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianWestern KentuckyPurdueLouisvilleMiddle TennesseeMiddle TennesseeIndianaIndianaKentuckyKentuckyPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelWestern Kentucky when he took over: 14.3 (Regional Program IV), its final 2013 readingtook overWestern Kentucky, 2014: 8-5, Regional Program IIIWestern Kentucky, 2014: 8-5, Regional Program III20148-5Western Kentucky, 2015: 12-2, Regional Program I201512-2Western Kentucky, 2016: 10-3, National Program IIIWestern Kentucky, 2016: 10-3, National Program III201610-3+15.7Purdue when he took over: 16.4 (Regional Program III), its final 2016 readingtook overPurdue, 2017: 7-6, Regional Program IIIPurdue, 2017: 7-6, Regional Program III20177-6Purdue, 2018: 6-7, Regional Program III20186-7Purdue, 2019: 4-8, Regional Program II20194-8Purdue, 2020: 2-4, Regional Program II20202-4Purdue, 2021: 9-4, Regional Program I20219-4Purdue, 2022: 8-5, Regional Program IPurdue, 2022: 8-5, Regional Program I20228-5+6.6Louisville when he took over: 42.5 (National Program I), its final 2022 readingtook overLouisville, 2023: 10-4, Power Program IIILouisville, 2023: 10-4, Power Program III202310-4Louisville, 2024: 9-4, Power Program III20249-4Louisville, 2025: 9-4, Power Program III20259-4Louisville, 2026: 5-3, Power Program IIILouisville, 2026: 5-3, Power Program III20265-3+2.4best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 6-2

Western Kentucky2014Bahamas BowlW 49-482015Miami Beach BowlW 45-35Purdue2017Foster Farms BowlW 38-352018Music City BowlL 14-632021Music City BowlW 48-45Louisville2023Holiday BowlL 28-422024Sun BowlW 35-342025Boca Raton BowlW 27-22

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameW 52-24 vs. Stanford Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3 won 3 straight
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextat Georgia Tech Sat Nov 7
  • Stature28th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • Playoff odds 2% → 4% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: at Georgia Tech

Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET ACC Network · Georgia Tech is 2-6 · Brohm vs. Brent Key: 2-0 · Louisville’s chance to win: 92% (the site’s model)

His week

GoCards · 558 views by Wednesday

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Nov 1–4 from a few outlets

Offense: 11th of 138 per play. Defense: 58th.

Offense, per play11thOffense, big plays6thDefense, per play58thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 4017thWorstBest
Offense, per play11th of 138Offense, big plays6th of 138Defense, per play58th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 4017th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Louisville. The other two rows are where Louisville stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at Georgia Tech (2-6)ACC Network92%
  2. Sat Nov 14at North Carolina (4-4)70%
  3. Sat Nov 21vs. Pittsburgh (6-3)74%
  4. Sat Nov 28at Kentucky (7-1)50%

Percent: Louisville’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Louisville stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

24th30th36thPreseason30thOle Miss L 38-41Ole Miss L 38-41L 38-41Ole Miss30thVillanova W 59-13Villanova W 59-13W 59-13Villanova31stSMU W 41-31SMU W 41-31W 41-31SMU29thWake Forest L 27-30Wake Forest L 27-30L 27-30Wake Forest29thNC State L 28-31NC State L 28-31L 28-31NC State30thFlorida State W 44-20Florida State W 44-20W 44-20Florida State30thSyracuse W 34-26Syracuse W 34-26W 34-26Syracuse30thStanford W 52-24Stanford W 52-24W 52-24Stanford29thBye28th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1W 52-24 vs. Stanford5 headlines · 67th of 138WATCH: Jeff Brohm reacts following Louisville's 52-24 win over Stanford 247Sports
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 34-26 at Syracuse8 headlines · 39th of 138CFP expansion could put Jeff Brohm and Louisville under a whole new level of pressure Big Red Louie
  4. Oct 5–11W 44-20 vs. Florida State9 headlines · 43rd of 138Everything Jeff Brohm said after Louisville’s win over Florida State Card Chronicle
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 28-31 at NC State10 headlines · 44th of 138Jeff Brohm: Louisville football has to 'look in the mirror' after loss to NC State On3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 27-30 vs. Wake Forest12 headlines · 33rd of 138Watch: Louisville football coach Jeff Brohm talks about 30-27 loss to Wake Forest On3

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Louisville’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 84th percentile offense, above the median defense at 73rd.

Louisville, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

A
of which —84th
efficiency — 84th percentile success rate, 2023–25
A84th
Standard-downs success
B64th
Passing-downs success
B-57th
Trench push (line yards)
B-57th
Red-zone scoring rate
C-33rd
Power-success (short yardage)
B61st
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

B+
of which —73rd
73rd percentile SP+ defense, 2023–25
A83rd
Front-7 havoc
B+77th
Secondary havoc
B+71st
Stuff rate (run defense)
B-57th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

1%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool100th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

All three of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

How his seat has moved, and why

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20232024202520262023, week 3 (3 games in): <1%, Coolest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): <1%, Coolest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (5 games in): <1%, Coolest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (6 games in): <1%, Coolest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (7 games in): <1%, 132nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 132nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, Coolest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 131st-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): <1%, 121st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 119th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 122nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): <1%, 128th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): <1%, 126th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (5 games in): <1%, 124th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (6 games in): <1%, 129th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): <1%, 130th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): <1%, 127th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): <1%, 123rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 116th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 115th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 3%, 81st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 1%, 96th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 102nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 105th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 1%, 100th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnow

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    $33.6M buyout (USA Today estimate) · 5.6× his pay, a multiple among the largest in FBS — costly to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 4 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Power Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$33,633,333 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 5.6× total pay · a large buyout, which lowers his chance of being let go · without it: 2%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Poach watch

This winter

1%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled102nd-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▼ Lower
    Age 55 · coaching at his alma mater, in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His 4th season at Louisville
  • ▼ Lower
    A Power Four program · 78th percentile of FBS in program stature last season
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.