Jeff Monken

Head coach · Army
13th season · since 2014

At Army94-66since 2014 · 5-3 this seasonHot seatCool5% · 52nd of 132 jobsLast gameL 22-49at Memphis · Nov 1Nextvs Air ForceSat Nov 7 · 7:30 pm ET · CBS
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

5-3, on track for 8-4 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Bowls and playoffs: 6-1

2016Heart of Dallas BowlW 38-312017Armed Forces BowlW 42-352018Armed Forces BowlW 70-142020Liberty BowlL 21-242021Armed Forces BowlW 24-222024Independence BowlW 27-62025Fenway BowlW 41-16

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 22-49 at Memphis Sat Oct 31
  • This season5-3
  • Hot seat5% 52nd of 132
  • On track for8-4 regular season
  • Nextvs. Air Force Sat Nov 7
  • Stature79th of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 4%. Lose and he’s at 7%.

vs. Air Force, Sat Nov 7, 7:30 pm ET CBS · Air Force is 6-2 · Monken vs. Troy Calhoun: 7-5 · Army’s chance to win: 60% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Army wins: 4%, 64th of 132Now: 5%If Army loses: 7%, 45th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Army wins: 4%, 64th of 132
  • Now: 5%
  • If Army loses: 7%, 45th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

5% chance he’s out after the season · 52nd of 132 FBS head coaches · Cool

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow2% had they won2% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%3%3%5%4%7%7%4%3%5%Pre1W vs. BryantW2L vs. South FloridaL3W at TempleW4L at Louisiana TechL5W vs. TulaneW6W vs. Florida AtlanticW7W at TulsaW8L at MemphisL9Chance to win vs. Air Force60%10Chance to win vs. East Carolina68%11Chance to win at Rice82%12Chance to win vs. Navy60%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow2% had they wonLoss 7%Win 4%3%5%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 6-611%
  2. 7-56%
  3. 8-43%
  4. 9-31%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now cooler than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool20142016201820202022202420262014, week 4 (3 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2014, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 93rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 91st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 7 (6 games in): 2%, 87th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 9 (7 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 11 (9 games in): 3%, 75th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 14 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 15 (11 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2014, week 16 (12 games in): 2%, 76th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 3 (3 games in): 17%, 29th-hottest of 115 FBS jobs2015, week 4 (4 games in): 12%, 46th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 5 (5 games in): 14%, 43rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 6 (6 games in): 17%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 7 (7 games in): 16%, 40th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 8 (8 games in): 18%, 36th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 9 (8 games in): 18%, 35th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 10 (9 games in): 20%, 30th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 11 (10 games in): 24%, 23rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 12 (11 games in): 26%, 22nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 13 (11 games in): 26%, 21st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 14 (11 games in): 26%, 20th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2015, week 15 (12 games in): 23%, 25th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 113 FBS jobs2016, week 4 (4 games in): 6%, 61st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 5 (4 games in): 6%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 58th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 7 (6 games in): 6%, 57th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 53rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 9 (8 games in): 6%, 52nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 10 (9 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 11 (10 games in): 8%, 43rd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 12 (11 games in): 7%, 44th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 13 (11 games in): 7%, 41st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 14 (11 games in): 7%, 42nd-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2016, week 15 (12 games in): 4%, 54th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2017, week 3 (3 games in): 9%, 38th-hottest of 105 FBS jobs2017, week 4 (4 games in): 11%, 45th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2017, week 5 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 6 (6 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 7 (7 games in): 5%, 68th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 78th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 10 (9 games in): 2%, 81st-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 11 (10 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 12 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 14 (11 games in): 2%, 79th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2017, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 80th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2018, week 3 (3 games in): 3%, 69th-hottest of 110 FBS jobs2018, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 95th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 101st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 10 (9 games in): <1%, 111th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 11 (10 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 12 (11 games in): <1%, 112th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 13 (11 games in): <1%, 107th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 14 (11 games in): <1%, 106th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2018, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 118th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 3 (3 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 106 FBS jobs2019, week 4 (4 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 129 FBS jobs2019, week 5 (4 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 8 (7 games in): 4%, 61st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 54th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 51st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 11 (10 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 12 (11 games in): 5%, 55th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 13 (11 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 14 (12 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2019, week 15 (12 games in): 5%, 57th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2020, week 6 (5 games in): 2%, 50th-hottest of 67 FBS jobs2020, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 55th-hottest of 69 FBS jobs2020, week 8 (7 games in): 1%, 58th-hottest of 74 FBS jobs2020, week 9 (7 games in): 1%, 57th-hottest of 76 FBS jobs2020, week 10 (7 games in): 1%, 73rd-hottest of 96 FBS jobs2020, week 11 (8 games in): 2%, 72nd-hottest of 100 FBS jobs2020, week 12 (9 games in): 1%, 90th-hottest of 117 FBS jobs2020, week 13 (9 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 124 FBS jobs2020, week 14 (9 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 126 FBS jobs2020, week 15 (10 games in): 1%, 97th-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2020, week 16 (11 games in): <1%, 101st-hottest of 127 FBS jobs2021, week 3 (3 games in): 6%, 66th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2021, week 4 (4 games in): 5%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 5 (5 games in): 6%, 64th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 6 (5 games in): 6%, 62nd-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 7 (6 games in): 7%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 8 (7 games in): 7%, 60th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 9 (7 games in): 7%, 59th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 10 (8 games in): 4%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 11 (9 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 12 (10 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 13 (11 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 14 (11 games in): 2%, 71st-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2021, week 15 (12 games in): 3%, 67th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2022, week 3 (3 games in): 13%, 37th-hottest of 125 FBS jobs2022, week 4 (3 games in): 13%, 39th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 5 (4 games in): 18%, 29th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 6 (5 games in): 18%, 32nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 7 (6 games in): 14%, 36th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 8 (7 games in): 12%, 39th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 9 (7 games in): 12%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 10 (8 games in): 14%, 37th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 11 (9 games in): 15%, 32nd-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 12 (10 games in): 12%, 38th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 13 (11 games in): 10%, 40th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 14 (11 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2022, week 15 (12 games in): 6%, 49th-hottest of 131 FBS jobs2023, week 3 (3 games in): 14%, 39th-hottest of 130 FBS jobs2023, week 4 (4 games in): 17%, 34th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 5 (4 games in): 17%, 36th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 6 (5 games in): 23%, 20th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 7 (6 games in): 27%, 16th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 8 (7 games in): 31%, 14th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 9 (8 games in): 32%, 11th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 10 (9 games in): 26%, 15th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 11 (10 games in): 21%, 22nd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 12 (11 games in): 15%, 30th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 13 (11 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 14 (11 games in): 15%, 28th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2023, week 15 (12 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (3 games in): 12%, 41st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (4 games in): 6%, 60th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (5 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 3%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 77th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (7 games in): 2%, 75th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (8 games in): 2%, 84th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 85th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (9 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (10 games in): 2%, 80th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (11 games in): 1%, 88th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): <1%, 109th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 28%, 9th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 28%, 9th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 23%, 18th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 18%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 19%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (7 games in): 19%, 25th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 15%, 30th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 14%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (9 games in): 14%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (10 games in): 18%, 26th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (11 games in): 11%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (11 games in): 11%, 34th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 13%, 32nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (3 games in): 4%, 68th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (4 games in): 7%, 57th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 52nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (6 games in): 4%, 73rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 3%, 72nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 5%, 60th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 5%, 52nd-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2023, week 9▲ Year 10 · tenure, which this model overratesEvery season ended Cool, 2016–2022

Hottest: 2023, week 9 (32%, 11th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter Year 10 · tenure, which this model overrates

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    Year 13 · tenure, which this model overrates
    (why?)

    Tenure is one of this model’s strongest inputs, but its weight was set when retirements like Nick Saban’s and Bob Stoops’ still counted as being pushed out, so it overstates how much tenure matters. History alone points the other way: of 213 past coaches in year 10 or later at this point in a season, 6% were pushed out over results, against 13% of 1,454 in years 3–9.

  • ▼ Cooler
    5-3, outscoring opponents by 65
  • ▼ Cooler
    19-8 over his previous two seasons here

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 5-3 after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 502 coaches
Were in year 10 or later, after 8 games
6% pushed out over results · of 213 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$7,700,000 USA Today estimate (Oct. 2025) — not a disclosed figure · 3.2× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

His week

Army West Point Athletics · 392 views by Wednesday

No headlines named him in the last 7 days

What they are talking about, week and season

Offense: 6th of 138 per play. Defense: 120th.

Offense, per play6thRunning offense1stDefense, per play120thRun defense133rdWorstBest
Offense, per play6th of 138Running offense1st of 138Defense, per play120th of 138Run defense133rd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Army. The other two rows are where Army stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Air Force (6-2)CBS60%
  2. Sat Nov 21vs. East Carolina (4-4)CBS Sports Network68%
  3. Sat Nov 28at Rice (1-7)82%
  4. Sat Dec 12vs. Navy (2-6)CBS60%

Percent: Army’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Army stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

73rd79th85thPreseason82ndBryant W 59-3Bryant W 59-3W 59-3Bryant81stSouth Florida L 24-28South Florida L 24-28L 24-28South Florida81stTemple W 21-17Temple W 21-17W 21-17Temple79thLouisiana Tech L 29-31Louisiana Tech L 29-31L 29-31Louisiana Tech79thTulane W 20-17Tulane W 20-17W 20-17Tulane79thFlorida Atlantic W 56-24Florida Atlantic W 56-24W 56-24Florida Atlan…80thTulsa W 38-35Tulsa W 38-35W 38-35Tulsa77thMemphis L 22-49Memphis L 22-49L 22-49Memphis76thBye80th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 22-49 at Memphis1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25W 38-35 at Tulsa0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 56-24 vs. Florida Atlantic2 headlines · 74th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 20-17 vs. Tulane0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 29-31 at Louisiana Tech0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 21-17 at Temple0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Army’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Report card

Offense carries it: 76th percentile offense, below the median defense at 46th.

Army, every completed season graded against the whole field, then averaged.

Offense

B+
of which —76th
efficiency — 76th percentile success rate, 2014–25
B+77th
Standard-downs success
B-52nd
Passing-downs success
A81st
Trench push (line yards)
B-52nd
Red-zone scoring rate
B+78th
Power-success (short yardage)
B+70th
Ball security (giveaways per game)

Defense

C+
of which —46th
46th percentile SP+ defense, 2014–25
C+48th
Front-7 havoc
B-54th
Secondary havoc
C44th
Stuff rate (run defense)
C-38th
Takeaways per game

Each season is his team’s percentile among every team with that stat (the share it beat), averaged over his completed seasons here; a mid-season takeover year and the season in progress aren’t graded. Letters: A+ 90th percentile and up, A 80, B+ 70, B 60, B− 50, C+ 45, C 40, C− 30, D 15, F below.

Poach watch

This winter

7%chance he leaves this winter for a head-coaching job elsewhere, or an NFL coordinator jobSettled31st-highest of 132 FBS head coaches
0%50%+

Our poach model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, his program, his pay and his background. Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches this season. The zone words describe the market’s interest; none of them says he is leaving.

What drives his number

The biggest factors in his profile, each against the typical FBS head coach today. The games he has left are priced into the number, not listed here.

  • ▲ Higher
    His team is 5-3, outscoring opponents by 8.1 points a game
  • ▼ Lower
    Age 59 · neither at his alma mater nor in the state he was born in
  • ▲ Higher
    His 13th season at Army
How good is this number? It ranks a head coach who leaves for another head-coaching job ahead of one who stays 78 to 82% of the time, and its average came within a point of the share who actually left. What it can’t do

Tested on every FBS head coach from 2012 through 2025, each season scored by a model fit only on the seasons before it. From three games on, given one coach who left for a head-coaching job elsewhere or an NFL coordinator job and one who stayed, it ranked the one who left ahead 79 to 82% of the time; in a season’s first two games, 78%. Its average chance came within a point of the share who actually left. It counts a move a coach makes while he still holds the job; when his school ends it, that doesn’t count, even if another school then hires him.

  • The live number prices the games he has left with the power model’s ratings from this season. The test priced them with each team’s rating from the season before, because ratings made during past seasons were not kept, so this live version could not be replayed.
  • Programs new to FBS have no FBS record before this season in the data it reads, so their coaches are scored without one.
  • It is frozen: it learns nothing from 2026 until a deliberate refit.
  • A coach hired in December needs his background (age, alma mater, the state he was born in) added before his first game, or he shows as not rated.