Tim Albin

Head coach · Charlotte
2nd season · since 2025 · Ohio before

At Charlotte2-18since 2025 · 1-7 this seasonHot seatBoiling48% · 5th of 132 jobsLast gameL 31-38vs Tulane · Oct 30Nextat UABSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

1-7, on track for 2-10 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianOhioCharlotteMiami (OH)Miami (OH)National Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelOhio when he took over: 20.9 (Regional Program II), its final 2020 readingtook overOhio, 2021: 3-9, Regional Program IIOhio, 2021: 3-9, Regional Program II20213-9Ohio, 2022: 10-4, Regional Program II202210-4Ohio, 2023: 10-3, Regional Program II202310-3Ohio, 2024: 10-3, Regional Program IOhio, 2024: 10-3, Regional Program I202410-3+3.8Charlotte when he took over: 8.6 (Regional Program V), its final 2024 readingtook overCharlotte, 2025: 1-11, Regional Program VCharlotte, 2025: 1-11, Regional Program V20251-11Charlotte, 2026: 1-7, Regional Program VCharlotte, 2026: 1-7, Regional Program V20261-7-1.1best: 2024gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 2-0

Ohio2022Arizona BowlW 30-272023Myrtle Beach BowlW 41-21

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 31-38 vs. Tulane Fri Oct 30
  • This season1-7
  • Hot seat48% 5th of 132
  • On track for2-10 regular season
  • Nextat UAB Sat Nov 7
  • Stature131st of 138 FBS programs

Win and he’s at 41%. Lose and he’s at 48%.

at UAB, Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET ESPN+ · UAB is 4-4 · First meeting between Albin and Alex Mortensen as head coaches · Charlotte’s chance to win: 15% (the site’s model)

CoolWarmHotBoilingIf Charlotte wins: 41%, 5th of 132Now: 48%If Charlotte loses: 48%, 5th of 1320%50%+
CoolWarmHotBoiling0%50%+
  • If Charlotte wins: 41%, 5th of 132
  • Now: 48%
  • If Charlotte loses: 48%, 5th of 132
His chance of being out after the season, now and after Saturday. Each tick is an FBS head coach’s number today; ranks are against today’s field. From the site’s hot-seat model.

Is he getting fired?

48% chance he’s out after the season · 5th of 132 FBS head coaches · Boiling

Coolunder 10%Warm10–20%Hot20–35%Boiling35% upNow41% had they won41% had they wonLoss 48%Win 41%42%41%45%46%51%57%55%49%48%Pre1L vs. The CitadelL2L at Ole MissL3L at App StateL4L vs. LouisianaL5L vs. MemphisL6L at North TexasL7W at TempleW8L vs. TulaneL9Chance to win at UAB15%10Chance to win vs. East Carolina21%11Chance to win at Tulsa14%12Chance to win vs. Navy18%Game number. Under each game: the result, or his team’s chance to win it
CoolWarmHotBoilingNow41% had they wonLoss 48%Win 41%42%48%Pre368912Game
Dark line: his number after each game; a small dot just before a game is where it stood at kickoff, after other results moved it. Gray: where it could go, 8 seasons in 10 (darker, the middle half). The hollow dot: had his last game gone the other way. From the site’s hot-seat model.

If he finishes…

Bar: how likely that finish isNumber: his chance of being out

  1. 1-1148%
  2. 2-1042%
  3. 3-934%
  4. 4-827%
Why his number is where it is

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Now hotter than at this point in 2025.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool202520262025, week 3 (3 games in): 5%, 53rd-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (4 games in): 7%, 59th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 7%, 58th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 7%, 55th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 44th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 9.5%, 43rd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 9.9%, 42nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (8 games in): 9.9%, 40th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (9 games in): 10%, 39th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 10%, 38th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 10%, 37th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 46%, 3rd-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 51%, 3rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 57%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 55%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 49%, 5th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (7 games in): 48%, 5th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 48%, 6th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 48%, 5th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowHottest: 2026, week 5▲ 0-5, outscored by 117

Hottest: 2026, week 5 (57%, 2nd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs that week). Top factor: ▲ Hotter 0-5, outscored by 117

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▲ Hotter
    1-7, outscored by 157
  • ▲ Hotter
    1-11 over his previous season here
  • ▲ Hotter
    $2M buyout · 2.3× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 1-7 after 8 games
21% pushed out over results · of 159 coaches
Were in year 2, after 8 games
5% pushed out over results · of 469 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$2,041,667 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.3× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 37%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.

Offense: 135th of 138 per play. Defense: 119th.

Offense, per play135thRunning offense137thDefense, per play119thDefense, points allowed per trip inside the 40132ndWorstBest
Offense, per play135th of 138Running offense137th of 138Defense, per play119th of 138Defense, points allowed per trip inside the 40132nd of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Charlotte. The other two rows are where Charlotte stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7at UAB (4-4)ESPN+15%
  2. Sat Nov 14vs. East Carolina (4-4)ESPN+21%
  3. Sat Nov 21at Tulsa (4-4)14%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Navy (2-6)18%

Percent: Charlotte’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Charlotte stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

124th130th136thPreseason130thThe Citadel L 41-43The Citadel L 41-43L 41-43The Citadel130thOle Miss L 9-41Ole Miss L 9-41L 9-41Ole Miss130thApp State L 21-26App State L 21-26L 21-26App State130thLouisiana L 7-34Louisiana L 7-34L 7-34Louisiana130thMemphis L 8-59Memphis L 8-59L 8-59Memphis131stNorth Texas L 10-50North Texas L 10-50L 10-50North Texas131stTemple W 38-31Temple W 38-31W 38-31Temple131stTulane L 31-38Tulane L 31-38L 31-38Tulane130th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1L 31-38 vs. Tulane1 headline · 87th of 138
  2. Oct 19–25No game0 headlines
  3. Oct 12–18W 38-31 at Temple0 headlines
  4. Oct 5–11L 10-50 at North Texas0 headlines
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4L 8-59 vs. Memphis0 headlines
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltL 7-34 vs. Louisiana0 headlines

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Charlotte’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.