Willie Fritz

Head coach · Houston
3rd season · since 2024 · Tulane before

At Houston20-13since 2024 · 6-2 this seasonHot seatCool3% · 66th of 132 jobsLast gameL 13-21at Utah · Oct 25Nextvs CincinnatiSat Nov 7 · 3:30 pm ET · FOX
This week · as of Wed Nov 4

6-2, on track for 9-3 in the regular season.

Now

Career arc

Stature score reached, by season of his head-coaching careerFBS medianGeorgia Sout…TulaneHoustonLSULSURiceRiceDynastythe sport's summitBlue Bloodpermanent top tierPower Programperennial contenderNational Programrespectable, streakyRegional Programthe building-block levelGeorgia Southern, 2014: 9-3, Regional Program IGeorgia Southern, 2014: 9-3, Regional Program I20149-3Georgia Southern, 2015: 8-4, National Program IIIGeorgia Southern, 2015: 8-4, National Program III20158-4Tulane when he took over: 6.5 (Regional Program V), its final 2015 readingtook overTulane, 2016: 4-8, Regional Program VTulane, 2016: 4-8, Regional Program V20164-8Tulane, 2017: 5-7, Regional Program V20175-7Tulane, 2018: 7-6, Regional Program IV20187-6Tulane, 2019: 7-6, Regional Program III20197-6Tulane, 2020: 6-6, Regional Program III20206-6Tulane, 2021: 2-10, Regional Program II20212-10Tulane, 2022: 12-2, National Program III202212-2Tulane, 2023: 11-2, National Program IIITulane, 2023: 11-2, National Program III202311-2+19.2Houston when he took over: 37.4 (National Program I), its final 2023 readingtook overHouston, 2024: 4-8, National Program IIHouston, 2024: 4-8, National Program II20244-8Houston, 2025: 10-3, National Program II202510-3Houston, 2026: 6-2, National Program IIHouston, 2026: 6-2, National Program II20266-2-2.3best: 2025gray dashed: rival programs · ○ the program when he took over · Dashed segments are program changes — spacing is not proportional to calendar time

Bowls and playoffs: 4-1

Tulane2018Cure BowlW 41-242019Armed Forces BowlW 30-132020Famous Idaho Potato BowlL 27-382022Cotton Bowl ClassicW 46-45Houston2025Texas BowlW 38-35

This week Wed Nov 4

  • Last gameL 13-21 at Utah Sat Oct 24
  • This season6-2
  • On track for9-3 regular season
  • Nextvs. Cincinnati Sat Nov 7
  • Stature40th of 138 FBS programs

What the result changed

  • AP poll #14 → #17 down three
  • Playoff odds 19% → 8% CFB Zeitgeist forecast, before and after

Saturday: vs. Cincinnati

Sat Nov 7, 3:30 pm ET FOX · Cincinnati is 5-3 · Fritz vs. Scott Satterfield: 1-1 (not counting 1 game in seasons either team changed coaches) · Houston’s chance to win: 84% (the site’s model)

Several stories this week →

The headlines, Oct 25–Nov 4 from a few outlets

On the podcasts

Offense: 1st of 138 per play. Defense: 88th.

Offense, per play1stPassing offense1stDefense, per play88thDefense, opponents' starting field position7thWorstBest
Offense, per play1st of 138Passing offense1st of 138Defense, per play88th of 138Defense, opponents' starting field position7th of 138WorstBest
Through 8 games. Each tick is an FBS team, adjusted for opponent strength (CFB Zeitgeist model); the dot is Houston. The other two rows are where Houston stands furthest from the middle. Early-season numbers move a lot.

4 games left

  1. Sat Nov 7vs. Cincinnati (5-3)FOX84%
  2. Fri Nov 13at Colorado (3-5)ESPN90%
  3. Sat Nov 21at West Virginia (5-3)90%
  4. Sat Nov 28vs. Baylor (5-3)53%

Percent: Houston’s chance to win, from the site’s model. Records are through today. Networks as announced; the rest are set closer to kickoff.

How the season got here

Where Houston stood among 138 FBS programs by stature after each game (1st is the highest; the CFB Zeitgeist ledger).

35th41st47thPreseason43rdOregon State W 33-20Oregon State W 33-20W 33-20Oregon State43rdSouthern W 77-6Southern W 77-6W 77-6Southern43rdTexas Tech L 26-28Texas Tech L 26-28L 26-28Texas Tech43rdGeorgia Southern W 42-28Georgia Southern W 42-28W 42-28Georgia South…43rdUCF W 27-17UCF W 27-17W 27-17UCF42ndKansas State W 35-16Kansas State W 35-16W 35-16Kansas State41stOklahoma State W 35-32Oklahoma State W 35-32W 35-32Oklahoma State40thUtah L 13-21Utah L 13-21L 13-21Utah39th
  1. Oct 26–Nov 1No game3 headlines · 70th of 138Houston Coach Willie Fritz Explained Late Offensive Struggles vs Utah Sports Illustrated
  2. Oct 19–25L 13-21 at Utah4 headlines · 65th of 138Willie Fritz and Morgan Scalley Have Taken Different Paths to Houston vs. Utah Yahoo Sports
  3. Oct 12–18W 35-32 vs. Oklahoma State8 headlines · 39th of 138
  4. Oct 5–11W 35-16 at Kansas State7 headlines · 52nd of 138Willie Fritz Challenges Houston Fans Ahead of Oklahoma State Showdown Heartland College Sports
  5. Sep 28–Oct 4W 27-17 vs. UCF2 headlines · 75th of 138Houston tracking for commitments as flip targets, top 2027 and 2028 prospects buzz about Willie Fritz and the Coogs On3
  6. Sep 21–27 · rebuiltW 42-28 at Georgia Southern8 headlines · 44th of 138Houston Coach Willie Fritz's Thoughts on His Return to Georgia Southern Sports Illustrated

Each week as this page showed it at the time. Weeks marked rebuilt came before this page existed: they were built afterward from only what was known by the end of that week.

Watch the biggest plays from Houston’s games, ranked by how much each moved the chance to win.

Hot seat

See every job →

This season

3%chance he’s out by the end of this seasonCool66th-hottest of 132 FBS jobs
0%50%+

Our hot-seat model, on his record so far, the win chances for every game he has left, and his contract (a bigger buyout, relative to pay, makes a change costlier). Ranked against the 132 FBS head coaches with 3+ games this season.

Both of his finished seasons here ended Cool. Now right where 2025 was at this point.

His hot seat, week by week

The chance he’s out by the end of that season, as it stood after every week of his tenure here, by today’s model.

BoilingHotWarmCool2024202520262024, week 3 (3 games in): 1%, 83rd-hottest of 111 FBS jobs2024, week 4 (4 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 5 (5 games in): 2%, 92nd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 6 (6 games in): 1%, 94th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 7 (6 games in): 1%, 91st-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 8 (7 games in): 2%, 90th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 9 (8 games in): 1%, 99th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 10 (9 games in): 1%, 104th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 11 (9 games in): 1%, 103rd-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 12 (10 games in): 1%, 98th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 13 (11 games in): 1%, 95th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 87th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2024, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 86th-hottest of 134 FBS jobs2025, week 3 (3 games in): 11%, 36th-hottest of 118 FBS jobs2025, week 4 (3 games in): 11%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 5 (4 games in): 9%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 6 (5 games in): 9%, 46th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 7 (6 games in): 8%, 47th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 8 (7 games in): 6%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 9 (8 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 10 (9 games in): 5%, 56th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 11 (10 games in): 3%, 65th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 12 (10 games in): 3%, 64th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 13 (11 games in): 4%, 62nd-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 14 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 15 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2025, week 16 (12 games in): 1%, 77th-hottest of 136 FBS jobs2026, week 3 (3 games in): 4%, 66th-hottest of 133 FBS jobs2026, week 4 (4 games in): 4%, 70th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 5 (5 games in): 4%, 74th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 6 (6 games in): 2%, 85th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 7 (7 games in): 2%, 86th-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 8 (8 games in): 3%, 73rd-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 9 (8 games in): 3%, 71st-hottest of 137 FBS jobs2026, week 10 (8 games in): 3%, 66th-hottest of 132 FBS jobsnowEvery season ended Cool, 2024–2025

Earlier seasons price the games left with power ratings rebuilt after those seasons ended.

What drives his number

The biggest factors, each against the typical FBS job today.

  • ▼ Cooler
    6-2, outscoring opponents by 120 · AP-ranked
  • ▲ Hotter
    $10.4M buyout · 2.3× his pay, a multiple below average in FBS — cheap to move on
  • ▲ Hotter
    National Program program, AP-ranked in the preseason · the bar going in

What happened to coaches like him, 2004–2025

A different comparison: past coaches, not today’s, grouped by one fact at a time. Neither line knows the games he has left or his contract, so they can sit above or below his chance.

Were 6-2 after 8 games
2% pushed out over results · of 389 coaches
Were in years 3-4, after 8 games
13% pushed out over results · of 754 coaches
The outcome
Pushed out over results — a firing, forced resignation, mutual parting or non-renewal, each read case by case. Leaving for a better job, or retiring on his own terms, doesn’t count.
Buyout
$10,375,000 reported, USA Today, Oct. 2025 · 2.3× total pay · a small buyout, which raises his chance of being let go · without it: 2%

How good is this number? Checked on every FBS coach from 2010 to 2025, with its percentages calibrated each season on earlier years only: they track what happened — coaches it put near 25% were out about a quarter of the time — and a version pricing the games left with the previous season’s ratings ranked jobs as well as the ranking this page used before. Each week it learns from coaches who were still on the job at that point, so a firing during the season counts. In the Boiling zone it has run a few points high. Every job, and the method.