CFB Zeitgeist Score
60
Solid starter in the position cohort. Carried by rush yards at the 79th percentile.
Al-Jay Henderson
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
755 RUSH YDS · 6 RUSH TD · 182 CARRIES
2026 Outlook
Returning to Buffalo for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Running back · Buffalo
Returning around him
- 66% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Buffalo player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: +0 net (16 in / 16 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Buffalo · Last season: 5-7 · Talent rank #112 · 2026 recruiting class #92
RB · BUFFALO · MID-AMERICAN
Al-Jay Henderson
- 4
- #5
- 6-0 | 216 lb
- South Orange, NJ
Heisman Heat
#159
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP RB AWARD
Doak Walker
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
4 seasons on the ladder
2022
Buffalo · RB
—
2023
Buffalo · RB
—
★
2024
Buffalo · RB
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2025
Buffalo · RB
—
Development Trajectory · rushing yards
2022–2025+151%
Up 151% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
Buffalo
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8378 | No. 1527 recruit | HighSchool | Buffalo |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in rushing yards (755).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Buffalo
Composite
0.8378
#1527 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Al-Jay Henderson
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Al-Jay Henderson
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the rushing totals stand
Through 12g
755Rush yards
182Carries
6Rush TDs
Per game
62.9Rush yards
15Carries
0Rush TDs
Projected (13g)
817.9Rush yards
197Carries
6Rush TDs
✓ Hit 750-yard season · finished with 755.
To hit 1,000-yard season (currently 755): needs 245/game over remaining 1.
To hit 1,500-yard season (currently 755): needs 745/game over remaining 1.
To hit 10 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 4/game over remaining 1.
To hit 15 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 9/game over remaining 1.
To hit 20 rushing TDs (currently 6): needs 14/game over remaining 1.
Why this is more than a rushing profile
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Al-Jay Henderson is not a one-lane back. The profile is interesting because the workload spills beyond pure rushing volume: 755 rushing yards, 25 catches, and 0 return yards for Buffalo. That kind of all-purpose footprint gives the card a much richer story than a basic carry total.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
RB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Workhorse | Passing-game back against FBS RB peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Rushing
CAR
182 95th
YDS
755 90th
YPC
4.1 36th
TD
6 89th
Receiving
REC
25 91st
YDS
181 86th
YPR
7.2 55th
TD
1 89th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 12 games
| Wk | Opp | CAR | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 10-23@ Minnesota | 11 | 25 | 2.3 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 2 | W 45-6vs St. Francis (PA) | 24 | 98 | 4.1 | 2 | 10 | |
| Wk 3 | W 31-28@ Kent State | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 1 | 38 | |
| Wk 4 | L 17-21vs Troy | 22 | 76 | 3.5 | 1 | 22 | |
| Wk 5 | L 17-20vs UConn | 24 | 63 | 2.6 | 0 | 6 | |
| Wk 6 | W 31-30vs Eastern Michigan | 16 | 81 | 5.1 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 8 | W 28-21@ Massachusetts | 20 | 59 | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | |
| Wk 9 | L 16-24vs Akron | 11 | 67 | 6.1 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 10 | W 28-3@ Bowling Green | 18 | 119 | 6.6 | 1 | 41 | Season-high 119 yds |
| Wk 12 | L 19-38@ Central Michigan | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 13 | L 20-37vs Miami (OH) | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 14 | L 26-31vs Ohio | 5 | 31 | 6.2 | 1 | 23 | |
| Total | 182 | 755 | 4.3 | 6 | 41 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Buffalo7-6HC: Maurice Linguist · Run-leaning
2023Buffalo3-9HC: Maurice Linguist · Balanced
2024Buffalo9-4HC: Maurice Linguist · Run-heavy
2025Buffalo5-7HC: Pete Lembo · Balanced
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted rushing value. It helps separate empty volume from carries that actually move the scoreboard.
How much of the team's offense flows through this back once rushing work and receiving work are combined.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 755 | #74/735 | 90th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 6 | #83/739 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 4.1 | #475/735 | 36th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receptions | 25 | #51/552 | 91st pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 181 | #75/548 | 86th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Value | Rushing WEPA | -0.04 | #358/362 | 1st pct | Opponent-adjusted rushing value | 158 weighted playsvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Role share | 26.7% | #30/738 | 96th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Carries | 182 | #36/739 | 95th pct | Volumevs FBS RB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 41 | #225/733 | 69th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 22 | #198/540 | 64th pct | Metricvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 7.2 | #250/548 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS RB |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #60/552 | 89th pct | Scoringvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Rush share | 47.7% | #21/738 | 97th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 32.3% | #12/738 | 99th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 29.1% | #43/738 | 94th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 24.7% | #86/738 | 88th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 22.9% | #11/738 | 99th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS RB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 21.6% | #14/738 | 98th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS RB |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.8% | #88/738 | 88th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS RB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 2 | #205/256 | 20th pct | Turnoversvs FBS RB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 12 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home7g | 62.6 | 4.4 | 0.6 |
| Road5g | 63.4 | 4.2 | 0.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wins5g | 86.4 | 4.8 | 0.8 |
| Losses7g | 46.1 | 4.0 | 0.3 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | YPC | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-76g | 69.7 | 3.8 | 0.7 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 56.2 | 4.9 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the RB cohort
60Solid starter
Elite: carries (89th). Strength: receptions (84th). Concern: fumbles lost (13th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · RB · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_rushing-0.04Below (<p25) (n=178)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Al-Jay HendersonBuffaloKendrick RaphaelCalifornia· 89% simAdam RandallClemson· 86% simRashod DubinionApp State· 85% sim
Carries
Receptions
Rec yards
Rush yards
Rush TDs
Long run
Yards / carry
Fumbles lost
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Balanced Back
Plays within the scheme — consistent production without a dominant dimension.
RB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jared Wilson’s 2020 season.
Jared Wilson
69%match
#2
Star Thomas
70%
#3
Ronald Awatt
63%
#4
Kadarius Calloway
69%
#5
Leshon Williams
68%
Matches Jared on
Rush TD rate
Height
Weight
Differs from Jared on
Class year (higher)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Gerrid Doaks’s path through Cincinnati.
Gerrid Doaks
91%match
All-AACNFL Rd 7
#2
Nakia Watson
90%
#3
Gabe Ervin
90%
#4
Ofa Mataele
90%
#5
Brenden Brady
90%
Matches Gerrid on
Yards per carry
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Rahjai Harris's senior season at East Carolina (2023).
Rahjai Harris
72%match
All-AAC
#2
Jordan Mcdonald
71%
#3
Dean Connors
70%
#4
Kobe Pace
68%
#5
Sevaughn Clark
67%
Matches Rahjai on
EPA / carry (adj)
Yards / reception
Height
Differs from Rahjai on
Receiving share (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Pete Lembo
Pass share
49.8%
409 pass / 413 run
Plays / game
68.5
12 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
7.4%
338 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Balanced.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
2 coaches2022
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
2023
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
2024
Maurice Linguist
Buffalo
2025era →
Pete Lembo
Buffalo
Coaching transition mid-career: Maurice Linguist → Pete Lembo. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownSouth Orange, NJ
Height6'0"
Weight216 lb
Class4
PositionRB
Jersey5
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBuffalo
ConferenceMid-American
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2024)
All-MAC
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | All-MAC | all_conference | Buffalo | MAC | RB |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Buffalo | RB4 | #159 | #280 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2023 | Buffalo | RB4 | #3993 | #4282 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2022 | Buffalo | RB4 | #1251 | #1531 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mid-American |
| 2021 | Buffalo | RB4 | #3743 | #3775 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mid-American |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Buffalo | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 216 lb | South Orange, NJ |
| 2024 | Buffalo | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 216 lb | South Orange, NJ |
| 2023 | Buffalo | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 216 lb | South Orange, NJ |
| 2022 | Buffalo | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 216 lb | South Orange, NJ |
| 2021 | Buffalo | Mid-American | RB | 4 | No. 5 | 6-0 | 216 lb | South Orange, NJ |