CFB Zeitgeist Score
43
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by rec yards at the 48th percentile.
Chase Penry
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
394 REC YDS · 30 REC · 1 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Boise State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Wide receiver · Boise State
Returning around him
- 58% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 1 Boise State player drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (11 in / 19 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Boise State · Last season: 9-5 (AP #25) · Talent rank #81 · 2026 recruiting class #62
WR · BOISE STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
Chase Penry
- 4
- #13
- 6-0 | 194 lb
- Greenwood Village, CO
Heisman Heat
#2109
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP WR AWARD
Biletnikoff
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR05 · Part-time starter
Part-time starter. Splitting first-team reps.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+358%
Up 358% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8626 | No. 861 recruit | HighSchool |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | Colorado -> Boise State | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to —
Composite
0.8626
#861 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Chase Penry
Fan sentiment · Awaiting signal
The Room reads fan conversation around a player — who’s talking, what they believe, and how that shifts. It publishes once weekly volume rebuilds; for most players that’s in-season, when game-week chatter spikes.
Cohort divergence map
Cohort divergence reads how different fanbases talk about this player. Returns once weekly mentions clear the publish floor.
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Chase Penry
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
2025 Signature · 2025 season
Yards per reception
13.1
yds
All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions
National rank #220 of 531
Percentile vs All FBS WRs, min 20 receptions 59th
Why it matters
#220 of 531 All FBS WRs at 13.1 yards per reception (30 catches).
Vs cohort
This player 13.1 (59th)
HIGH · n=30 cohort 531
- Also strong
- Receiving yards (total)#307 / 531
- Receiving TDs#402 / 531
Signature Moment
Week 15 vs UNLV — 96 ypr
Result W 38-21
The week the volume broke through — put up 96 yds vs UNLV.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 11g
394Rec yards
30Receptions
1Rec TDs
Per game
35.8Rec yards
3Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
465.6Rec yards
35Receptions
1Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 394): needs 153/game over remaining 2.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 394): needs 303/game over remaining 2.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 30): needs 15/game over remaining 2.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 30): needs 25/game over remaining 2.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 3.5/game over remaining 2.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 1): needs 4.5/game over remaining 2.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
Chase Penry's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Boise State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
WR season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
30 75th
YDS
394 74th
YPR
13.1 60th
TD
1 64th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 11 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-34@ South Florida | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 4 | W 49-37@ Air Force | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 | 17 | |
| Wk 6 | L 7-28@ Notre Dame | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 8 | W 56-31vs UNLV | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | 9 | |
| Wk 9 | W 24-3@ Nevada | 3 | 33 | 11.0 | 0 | 15 | |
| Wk 10 | L 7-30vs Fresno State | 5 | 44 | 8.8 | 1 | 12 | |
| Wk 12 | L 7-17@ San Diego State | 3 | 50 | 16.7 | 0 | 19 | |
| Wk 13 | W 49-21vs Colorado State | 3 | 44 | 14.7 | 0 | 21 | |
| Wk 14 | W 25-24@ Utah State | 6 | 56 | 9.3 | 0 | 14 | |
| Wk 15 | W 38-21vs UNLV | 3 | 96 | 32.0 | 0 | 46 | Season-high 96 yds |
| Bowl | L 10-38@ Washington | 3 | 31 | 10.3 | 0 | 21 | |
| Total | 30 | 394 | 13.0 | 1 | 46 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Colorado4-8HC: Karl Dorrell · Run-heavy, slow tempo
2022Colorado1-11HC: Mike Sanford Jr. · Balanced, slow tempo
2023Boise State8-6HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-heavy
2025Boise State9-5HC: Spencer Danielson · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | 30 | 394 | 13.1 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado | 2 | 25 | 12.5 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | Colorado | 8 | 86 | 10.8 | 1 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 45 | 553 | 12.3 | 2 | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | -- | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Boise State | 1 | -- | 29 | 7 | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado | -- | -- | -- | 16 | -- |
| 2021 | Colorado | -- | -- | 24 | 53 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 1 | -- | 53 | 76 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The player's share of a team's passing-game involvement. It is the fastest way to see whether the receiver is a true focal point or more of a complementary piece.
A blended workload view that accounts for catches, designed touches, and any return-game involvement that shapes the overall profile.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 30 | #282/1110 | 75th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 394 | #292/1107 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 1 | #396/1111 | 64th pct | Scoringvs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 13.1 | #441/1106 | 60th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Pass share | 11.2% | #429/1137 | 62nd pct | Air-game usagevs FBS WR |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 46 | #325/1105 | 71st pct | Metricvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 9.9% | #233/1137 | 80th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 8.7% | #335/1137 | 71st pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Role share | 5.5% | #423/1137 | 63rd pct | Share of team offensevs FBS WR |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.5% | #478/1137 | 58th pct | Early-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 4.2% | #612/1137 | 46th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS WR |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 4.0% | #522/1137 | 54th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS WR |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #391/1137 | 66th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS WR |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 11 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home4g | 3.0 | 48.2 | 16.1 | 0.2 |
| Road7g | 2.6 | 28.7 | 11.2 | 0.0 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 2.8 | 42.5 | 15.5 | 0.0 |
| Losses5g | 2.6 | 27.8 | 10.0 | 0.2 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-74g | 1.5 | 15.5 | 10.3 | 0.0 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 3.4 | 47.4 | 14.5 | 0.1 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the WR cohort
43Mid-pack
Concern: rec tds (23rd).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · WR · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Chase PenryBoise StateKevin Coleman Jr.Missouri· 72% simJacquon GibsonMassachusetts· 71% simTrent WalkerOregon State· 70% sim
Yards / catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Long catch
Rec TDs
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Possession Receiver
Reliable target who converts on critical downs. Not flashy; consistently productive.
WR
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jaylan Sanchez’s 2025 season.
Jaylan Sanchez
82%match
#2
Xavier White
82%
#3
Qian Magwood
81%
#4
Isaiah Esdale
81%
#5
Ty McCullouch
81%
Matches Jaylan on
Reception volume
Weight
Total EPA (college ability)
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Julius Young’s path through Lafayette.
Julius Young
100%match
#2
Malik Murray
99%
#3
Jeremiah Webb
98%
#4
Jayden Umbarger
97%
#5
Carlos Hernandez
94%
Matches Julius on
Yards per reception
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Bryce Kirtz's graduate season at Northwestern (2024).
Bryce Kirtz
72%match
#2
Keagan Johnson
70%
#3
Kelvontay Dixon
70%
#4
Caullin Lacy
All-ACC
69%
#5
Jay Maclin
67%
Matches Bryce on
EPA / play (adj)
Total EPA (college ability)
Reception volume
Differs from Bryce on
Yards / reception (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Spencer Danielson
Pass share
46.6%
472 pass / 540 run
Plays / game
72.3
14 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
358 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
2 coaches2021
Andy Avalos
Boise State
2022
Andy Avalos
Boise State
2023era →
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
2025
Spencer Danielson
Boise State
Coaching transition mid-career: Andy Avalos → Spencer Danielson. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownGreenwood Village, CO
Height6'0"
Weight194 lb
Class4
PositionWR
Jersey13
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamBoise State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Boise State | WR4 | #2109 | #1850 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2023 | Boise State | WR4 | #2116 | #1997 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2022 | Colorado | WR4 | #3692 | #4355 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
| 2021 | Colorado | WR4 | #2554 | #3108 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Pac-12 |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Boise State | Mountain West | WR | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 194 lb | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 2024 | Boise State | Mountain West | WR | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 194 lb | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 2023 | Boise State | Mountain West | WR | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 194 lb | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 2022 | Colorado | Pac-12 | WR | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 194 lb | Greenwood Village, CO |
| 2021 | Colorado | Pac-12 | WR | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 194 lb | Greenwood Village, CO |