CFB Zeitgeist Score
51
Mid-pack in the position cohort. Carried by completion % at the 93rd percentile.
E.J. Warner
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
2,030 PASS YDS · 13 PASS TD · 148 RUSH YDS
2026 Outlook
Returning to Fresno State for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Returning starter
Quarterback · Fresno State
Returning around him
- 17% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
- Transfer portal: +3 net (13 in / 10 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Fresno State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #90 · 2026 recruiting class #103
QB · FRESNO STATE · MOUNTAIN WEST
E.J. Warner
- 4
- #13
- 6-0 | 203 lb
- Phoenix, AZ
Heisman Heat
#397
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP QB AWARD
Davey O'Brien
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Development Trajectory · passing yards
2022–2025-33%
Sharp dropoff (-33%) — career inflection point.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
3 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 3-star | 0.8281 | No. 1750 recruit | HighSchool | Temple |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Rice -> Fresno State | 3-star | 0.8500 | Immediate |
| 2024 | Temple -> Rice | 3-star | 0.8600 | Immediate |
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
Achievements
- Program Benchmark 5.5% Program Benchmark Season leader for the program at the player's position across the headline volume metric (passing yards / rushing yards / receiving yards). Held by 5.5% of the 2025 pool. Team leader in passing yards (2030).
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Temple
Composite
0.8281
#1750 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on E.J. Warner
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=1
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about E.J. Warner
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the passing totals stand
Through 10g
2,030Pass yards
13Pass TDs
11INT
Per game
203Pass yards
1Pass TDs
1INT
Projected (13g)
2,639Pass yards
17Pass TDs
14INT
To hit 3,000-yard season (currently 2,030): needs 323.3/game over remaining 3.
To hit 4,000-yard season (currently 2,030): needs 656.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 25 passing TDs (currently 13): needs 4/game over remaining 3.
To hit 30 passing TDs (currently 13): needs 5.7/game over remaining 3.
To hit 35 passing TDs (currently 13): needs 7.3/game over remaining 3.
What made this player interesting
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
E.J. Warner's story is about how role and output meet each other. For Fresno State, the card already shows enough current-season production to explain why he is on the serious-player board, and the next layer is determining whether the profile is just very good or actually distinctive.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
QB season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Steady volume | Efficient against FBS QB peers. The quickest read is whether the profile wins on volume, efficiency, explosiveness, or rushing value.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Passing Efficiency
CMP
192 80th
ATT
277 78th
CMP%
69.3% 82nd
Y/A
7.3 62nd
Passing Production
YDS
2,030 77th
TD
13 81st
INT
11 5th
Rushing
CAR
50 69th
YDS
148 74th
YPC
3.0 55th
TD
1 63rd
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 10 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | L 7-31@ Kansas | 18/29 | 179 | 0 | 2 | 6.2 | 66.1 | |
| Wk 1 | W 42-14vs Georgia Southern | 20/27 | 176 | 0 | 2 | 6.5 | 58.1 | |
| Wk 2 | W 36-27@ Oregon State | 13/18 | 121 | 0 | 1 | 6.7 | 80.8 | |
| Wk 3 | W 56-7vs Southern | 20/24 | 240 | 4 | 0 | 10.0 | 80.2 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 23-21@ Hawai'i | 22/29 | 230 | 1 | 0 | 7.9 | 77.7 | |
| Wk 6 | W 20-17vs Nevada | 18/26 | 190 | 2 | 1 | 7.3 | 41.3 | |
| Wk 7 | L 21-49@ Colorado State | 28/49 | 350 | 3 | 3 | 7.1 | 26.2 | Season-high 350 yds · 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 13 | L 17-28vs Utah State | 23/33 | 187 | 1 | 1 | 5.7 | 25.5 | |
| Wk 14 | W 41-14@ San José State | 15/20 | 138 | 1 | 1 | 6.9 | 46.2 | |
| Bowl | W 18-3vs Miami (OH) | 15/22 | 219 | 1 | 0 | 10.0 | 87.3 | |
| Total | 192/277 | 2030 | 13 | 11 | 7.4 | 58.9 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2022Temple3-9HC: Stan Drayton · Pass-leaning
2023Temple3-9HC: Stan Drayton · Pass-leaning
2024Rice4-8HC: Mike Bloomgren · Pass-leaning
2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 192 | 277 | 69.3% | 2,030 | 7.3 | 13 | 11 | 138.4 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | Rice | 271 | 438 | 61.9% | 2,710 | 6.2 | 17 | 13 | 120.7 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | Temple | 256 | 445 | 57.5% | 3,076 | 6.9 | 23 | 12 | 127.3 | -- | -- |
| 2022 | Temple | 268 | 443 | 60.5% | 3,028 | 6.8 | 18 | 12 | 125.9 | -- | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 987 | 1,603 | 61.6% | 10,844 | 6.8 | 71 | 48 | 127.0 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | 50 | 148 | 3.0 | 1 | -- |
| 2024 | Rice | 29 | 12 | 0.4 | 1 | -- |
| 2023 | Temple | 24 | 7 | 0.3 | 0 | -- |
| 2022 | Temple | 16 | -50 | -3.1 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 4 loaded seasons | 119 | 117 | 1.0 | 2 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
Opponent-adjusted passing value. Positive numbers mean the quarterback is adding more value through the air than a neutral peer would in the same environment.
How much of the offense runs through the quarterback once passing and rushing responsibility are blended together.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Passing | Passing yards | 2,030 | #88/382 | 77th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Pass TD | 13 | #80/407 | 81st pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completions | 192 | #77/383 | 80th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Completion % | 69.3% | #71/383 | 82nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Passing | Yards / attempt | 7.3 | #145/382 | 62nd pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing yards | 148 | #106/408 | 74th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Value | Passing WEPA | +0.31 | #69/200 | 66th pct | Opponent-adjusted passing value | 253 weighted playsvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Role share | 45.3% | #114/428 | 74th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Attempts | 277 | #91/407 | 78th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Passing | Interceptions | 11 | #386/407 | 5th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Carries | 50 | #127/408 | 69th pct | Volumevs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rushing LONG | 30 | #107/391 | 73rd pct | Metricvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Yards / carry | 3.0 | #185/407 | 55th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS QB |
| Rushing | Rush TD | 1 | #151/408 | 63rd pct | Scoringvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Pass share | 92.5% | #45/428 | 90th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 72.1% | #33/428 | 93rd pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 66.7% | #56/428 | 87th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 51.4% | #65/428 | 85th pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 33.8% | #143/428 | 67th pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS QB |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 29.1% | #165/428 | 62nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS QB |
| Usage | Rush share | 7.9% | #202/428 | 53rd pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS QB |
| Ball Security | Fumbles lost | 3 | #213/258 | 18th pct | Turnoversvs FBS QB |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
Heisman model tracks the top FBS contenders weekly; this player hasn't entered the watch list yet.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 10 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 202 | 1.6 | 7.9 | 0.8 |
| Road5g | 204 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 1.4 |
Win vs Loss
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins7g | 188 | 1.3 | 7.9 | 0.7 |
| Losses3g | 239 | 1.3 | 6.3 | 2.0 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-78g | 213 | 1.4 | 7.7 | 1.1 |
| Weeks 8+2g | 162 | 1.0 | 6.3 | 1.0 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
51Mid-pack
Elite: completion % (93rd). Concern: interceptions (9th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Pass Profile · Completion depth (PBP)
Where the throws are landing
Short
0–9 yds47%of completions
59 comp5.7 yds avg1 TD
Middle
10–19 yds37%of completions
46 comp12.9 yds avg3 TD
Deep
20+ yds16%of completions
20 comp26.4 yds avg6 TD
Overall 67.6% completion on 185 attempts · 20 deep completions averaging 26.4 yds.
Advanced Savant · QB · 2024
Percentile Card
Reads as a mid-tier profile across the board..
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
wepa_passing0.31Mid (p50–p75) (n=94)
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
E.J. WarnerFresno StateMicah AlejadoHawai'i· 81% simOwen McCownUTSA· 76% simCaden VeltkampFlorida Atlantic· 75% sim
Completion %
Yards / att
Pass TDs
Rush yards
Pass yards
Rush TDs
Fumbles lost
Interceptions
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Game Manager
Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.
QB
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jack Abraham’s 2020 season.
Jack Abraham
65%match
All-Conference USA
#2
Nick Vattiato
65%
#3
Frank Harris
All-AAC
63%
#4
Zevi Eckhaus
59%
#5
Blake Shapen
60%
Matches Jack on
Weight
Completion %
Differs from Jack on
INT rate (higher)
TD rate (higher)
Rush yards / carry (higher)
Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brady McBride’s path through Texas State.
Brady McBride
94%match
#2
Derek Robertson
89%
#3
Skyler Locklear
82%
#4
DJ Williams
80%
#5
Baylor Hayes
80%
Matches Brady on
Height
Completion %
Yards per attempt
As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Frank Harris's senior season at UTSA (2023).
Frank Harris
56%match
All-AAC
#2
Jamal Morris
52%
#3
Parker Navarro
All-MAC
51%
#4
Davis Brin
47%
#5
Taulia Tagovailoa
All-Big Ten
47%
Matches Frank on
TD rate
Total pass EPA (college ability)
Rush usage
Differs from Frank on
INT rate (higher)
Completion % (higher)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Matt Entz
Pass share
44.2%
373 pass / 471 run
Plays / game
64.9
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
6.4%
282 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2022–2025
3 coaches2022
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2023
Jeff Tedford
Fresno State
2024era →
Tim Skipper
Fresno State
2025era →
Matt Entz
Fresno State
Played under 3 different head coaches: Jeff Tedford, Tim Skipper, and Matt Entz. Multi-era developmental context.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownPhoenix, AZ
Height6'0"
Weight203 lb
Class4
PositionQB
Jersey13
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamFresno State
ConferenceMountain West
Joined2025
Career arc4 season(s)
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
No formal honors on the ledger yet
All-America, all-conference, player-of-the-week, watch-list, and postseason awards land here when they're earned. The absence is the signal: most players never collect formal honors, and that's its own kind of context.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No formal honors on the ledger yet. All-America, all-conference, weekly awards, watch lists, and postseason trophies land here when they’re earned. | ||||
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Rice | QB4 | #397 | #650 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2023 | Temple | QB4 | #815 | #1253 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | American Athletic |
| 2022 | Temple | QB4 | #781 | #1144 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | American Athletic |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Fresno State | Mountain West | QB | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 203 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2024 | Rice | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 203 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2023 | Temple | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 203 lb | Phoenix, AZ |
| 2022 | Temple | American Athletic | QB | 4 | No. 13 | 6-0 | 203 lb | Phoenix, AZ |