#13

E.J. Warner

Senior quarterback for Fresno State. 2025: 2,030 passing yards, 13 TD, 11 INT.

QB · Fresno State · Sr. · #13

6′0″ · 203 lb · Phoenix, AZ

CFB Index 43 · #84 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Fresno State for 2026

How he plays

Keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game.

EPA / dropback: 94th percentile.

The full scouting read

The numbers

2,030

passing yards · 2025

13 TD · 11 INT · 7.3 per attempt

Best game: 240 pass yds, 4 TD, -10 rush yds, vs Southern

Statement game527 yds · 5 TDvs East Carolina (FBS) · L 46-49

Top 0.1% passing yards game since 2021.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Fresno State. 2025: 2,030 passing yards, 13 TD, 11 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Temple in 2022.
Transferred from Rice to Fresno State in 2025.

The full story, with sources

E.J. Warner

QB · Fresno State · Sr · #13

Keeps the offense on schedule and doesn't lose the game. Across four seasons and three programs, three head coaches: Stan Drayton, Mike Bloomgren and Matt Entz. The receipt: 350 pass yds, 3 pass TD against Colorado State — Week 7, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022Temple3-9HC: Stan Drayton · Pass-leaning

2023Temple3-9HC: Stan Drayton · Pass-leaning

2024Rice4-8HC: Mike Bloomgren · Pass-leaning

2025Fresno State9-4HC: Matt Entz · Run-leaning

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

43Rotational starter #84 of 146?

High confidenceAscending13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: epa / dropback (94th percentile). Strength: success rate (90th percentile). Concern: interceptions (10th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

EPA / dropback#11 / 183 · 94th pct

0.38

Success rate#19 / 183 · 90th pct

46.6%

Explosive rate#86 / 183 · 53rd pct

9.4%

Sack rate#94 / 183 · 49th pct

5.2%

Interception rate#104 / 183 · 43rd pct

2.3%

Box-score rates (8)

Completion %#13 / 183 · 93rd pct

69.3%

Yards / att#76 / 183 · 57th pct

7.3

Pass TDs#80 / 183 · 55th pct

Rush yards#84 / 183 · 54th pct

148

Pass yards#88 / 183 · 52nd pct

2030

Rush TDs#123 / 183 · 26th pct

Fumbles lost#132 / 174 · 18th pct

Interceptions#162 / 183 · 10th pct

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

23rd → 94th percentile

Success rate

22nd → 90th percentile

Explosive rate

23rd → 53rd percentile

Sack rate

98th → 49th percentile

Interception rate

48th → 43rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

179/256 (69.9%) · 13 TD · 11 INT

256 of 277 attempts matched to play-by-play

51 of 256 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

5.93114 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

4.8%106 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 4.8% of dropbacks (106 of 206) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (114 of 206).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

18% of attempts (9)

89%comp

Air -2.6 · YAC 4.6 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

59% of attempts (30)

77%comp1 INT

Air 5.0 · YAC 2.3 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

22% of attempts (11)

45%comp

Air 15.0 · YAC 0.2 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

2% of attempts (1)

0%comp

Air 23.0 avg

Overall 69.9% completion on 256 attempts · 59% of attempts thrown 0–9 air yds.

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 15 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

+4 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/72 (4.2%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

-14 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 3/100 (3.0%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+15 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 5/77 (6.5%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 10 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	202	1.6	7.9	0.8
Road5g	204	1.0	7.0	1.4

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	213	1.4	7.7	1.1
Weeks 8+2g	162	1.0	6.3	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Matt Entz

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Starter

A locked-in starting job.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

43 · #84 of 146 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #84 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-Pac-12

Based on 2025: #7 of 14 Mountain West QBs — his program moves to the Pac-12 for 2026

How the All-Pac-12 estimate is computed

35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player. The base rate was measured on players who stayed in the same conference; this estimate is not adjusted for the move to the Pac-12.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Fresno State	192	277	69.3%	2,030	7.3	13	11	138.4	59	--	--
2024	Rice	271	438	61.9%	2,710	6.2	17	13	120.7	40	--	--
2023	Temple	256	445	57.5%	3,076	6.9	23	12	127.3	43	--	--
2022	Temple	268	443	60.5%	3,028	6.8	18	12	125.9	47	--	--
Career		987	1,603	61.6%	10,844	6.8	71	48	127.0	46	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Fresno State	50	148	3.0	1	--
2024	Rice	29	12	0.4	1	--
2023	Temple	24	7	0.3	0	--
2022	Temple	16	-50	-3.1	0	--
Career		119	117	1.0	2	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2025

W 56–7

vs Southern

240 yds · 4 TD · 0 INT · QBR 80.2 · -10 rush yds (2 car)

Dominant 49-point win at home against Southern.

With B. Donelson — 90 rush yds (9 car) · 1 TD · R. Luke — 31 rush yds (7 car) · 1 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 7 · Colorado State · 2&6 · Q4 · EPA -4.47E.J. Warner pass intercepted, touchback. CJ Blocker return for no gain
Week 1 · Miami (OH) · 3&9 · Q3 · EPA +4.40(10:45) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU18, for 51 yards to the MIA28 (#8 K.Beasley; #6 A.Walker Jr.), 1ST DOWN
Week 13 · Utah State · 3&2 · Q3 · EPA -4.34(00:39) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass intercepted by #14 B.Olevao Jr. at UST03 #14 B.Olevao Jr. return 17 yards to the UST20 (#88 R.Anderson III) PENALTY FST Pass Interference declined
Week 1 · Kansas · 3&6 · Q1 · EPA +3.97E.J. Warner pass complete to Bryson Donelson for 39 yds to the KU 32 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Miami (OH) · 1&15 · Q2 · EPA +3.91(01:00) Shotgun #13 E.Warner pass complete short right to #5 J.Freeman caught at FSU25, for 47 yards to the MIA36 (#24 M.Yharbrough), 1ST DOWN
Week 3 · Southern · 2&22 · Q2 · EPA +3.84E.J. Warner pass complete to Richie Anderson III for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
Week 7 · Colorado State · 3&10 · Q2 · EPA +3.83E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 26 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
Week 2 · Oregon State · 2&12 · Q1 · EPA +3.52E.J. Warner pass complete to Josiah Freeman for 30 yds to the ORST 40 for a 1ST down
Week 7 · Colorado State · 3&7 · Q3 · EPA +3.39E.J. Warner pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)
Week 2 · Oregon State · 2&10 · Q1 · EPA +3.37E.J. Warner run for 30 yds for a TD (Dylan Lynch KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 10 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 7-31@ Kansas	18/29	179	0	2	6.2	66.1
Wk 1	W 42-14vs Georgia Southern	20/27	176	0	2	6.5	58.1
Wk 2	W 36-27@ Oregon State	13/18	121	0	1	6.7	80.8
Wk 3	W 56-7vs Southern	20/24	240	4	0	10.0	80.2	4 TD passes
Wk 4	W 23-21@ Hawai'i	22/29	230	1	0	7.9	77.7
Wk 6	W 20-17vs Nevada	18/26	190	2	1	7.3	41.3
Wk 7	L 21-49@ Colorado State	28/49	350	3	3	7.1	26.2	Season-high 350 yds · 3 INTs — rough day
Wk 13	L 17-28vs Utah State	23/33	187	1	1	5.7	25.5
Wk 14	W 41-14@ San José State	15/20	138	1	1	6.9	46.2
Bowl	W 18-3vs Miami (OH)	15/22	219	1	0	10.0	87.3
Total		192/277	2030	13	11	7.4	58.9

How he plays

Play style

Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

61.8%Completion %

37.1%Conversion/dropback

38.1%Land short of sticks

2INTs

61.8% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 37.1% conversion-per-dropback — 38.1% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

1/16Inside-5 share

1 of the team's 16 inside-the-5 carries (6.2%).

2026 Outlook

Fresno State

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Fresno State

Returning around him

38% of 2024 offensive production back (Moderate turnover)
Transfer portal: +3 net (13 in / 10 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Fresno State · Last season: 9-4 · Talent rank #88 · 2026 recruiting class #70

DNA match

Player DNA

Game Manager

Consistent underneath passer who protects the lead. Rarely loses games; rarely wins them alone.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Jack Abraham’s 2020 season.

Jack Abraham

66%match

Southern Miss · 2020

All-Conference USA

Nick Vattiato

Middle Tennessee · 2023

65%

Frank Harris

UTSA · 2023

All-AACNFL Rd 6

64%

Jordan McCloud

Texas State · 2024

All-Sun Belt

64%

Blake Shapen

Baylor · 2022

59%

Matches Jack on

Weight

Completion %

Differs from Jack on

INT rate (higher)

TD rate (higher)

Rush yards / carry (higher)

Through 4 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Brady McBride’s path through Texas State.

Brady McBride

95%match

Texas State · 2021

Derek Robertson

Monmouth · 2025

89%

Luke Anthony

Louisiana Tech · 2020

84%

Stone Earle

Abilene Christian · 2025

84%

Skyler Locklear

UTEP · 2025

83%

Matches Brady on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Frank Harris's senior season at UTSA (2023).

Frank Harris

55%match

UTSA · 2023

All-AACNFL Rd 6

Nick Vattiato

Middle Tennessee · 2024

52%

Chandler Morris

TCU · 2023

52%

Parker Navarro

Ohio · 2024

All-MAC

50%

Jordan McCloud

Texas State · 2024

All-Sun Belt

50%

Matches Frank on

Yards / attempt

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Rush usage

Differs from Frank on

INT rate (higher)

Completion % (higher)

Player DNA

Players who play like E.J. Warner

Nick Vattiato

Middle Tennessee · 2025

74%

Logan Fife

New Mexico State · 2025

66%

Brett Gabbert

Miami (OH) · 2024

66%

E.J. Warner

Temple · 2023

65%

Devin Leary

Kentucky · 2023

60%

Heisman trajectory

Heisman Trajectory · 2025

Peak #211

Final rank

#311

Avg #278.3

Finalist prob 0%

Peaked at #211 this season.

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

E.J. Warner

Attention percentile: 33rd · Production percentile: 60th

202211 games

202411 games

202510 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Game Manager

Players who play like E.J. Warner

Heisman trajectory

Peak #211