Former quarterback at Indiana. 2025: 3,535 passing yards, 41 TD, 6 INT.
6′5″ · 225 lb · Miami, FL
CFB Index
A single number blending on-field production (an EPA-based value lane) with box-score output for this player's position.
0-100, scaled within each position's own cohort — not directly comparable across positions.
How he plays
Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball.
Success rate: 99th percentile.
The full scouting readThe numbers
passing yards · 2025
41 TD · 6 INT · 9.3 per attempt
Backed by 267 yds · 5 TD -- top 1% passing TDs game.
The play that turned itSwung Indiana from 58% to 98% to win.Indiana at Penn State · 27-24
His career numbers, season by seasonThe story
Former quarterback at Indiana. 2025: 3,535 passing yards, 41 TD, 6 INT.
Aura™ · Him Watch
-3aura tax
98th pctl our passing-value metric (wEPA) QBs · 160 qualified, n=355
— the discourse is fair.Buzz vs Tape
His own fans are far more bullish than the rival fanbase.
Indiana Hoosiers shake up the college football landscape, surging into a national championship showdown against the Miami Hurricanes. Has Curt Cignetti’s rapid rebuild set up a historic 16-0 run for IU? Fernando Mendoza’s precision at…
Also worth knowing:
“Alberto is actually a better QB than Fernando Mendoza.”
Fan claims · every quote verified verbatim
This is great but Indiana still has to deal with the same things that plague everyone in college football. Roster churn. Fernando Mendoza was a steal. Lightning doesn't usually strike twice like that.
Based on 1 comment from 1 poster across 1 thread · Jul 31, 2026 · via Josh Pate's College Football Show
Fernando Mendoza
Picks you apart underneath and protects the ball. Across three seasons and two programs, two head coaches: Justin Wilcox and Curt Cignetti. He has been named All-America (Consensus) two seasons running, most recently in 2025. The receipt: 332 pass yds, 18 rush yds against Michigan State — Week 8, 2025.
Low coverage — composed from the verified record.
Career, closed
Gone at No. 1 overall.
How it ended
Three seasons at Indiana, 8,247 passing yards, a Consensus All-American season (2025) — drafted at No. 1 overall by Las Vegas.
His career
Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.
Career arc
Trophy case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
ALL-AMERICA · CONSENSUS
Consensus AA (2025)
9 first-team selectors
ALL-BIG TEN · 1ST TEAM
All-Big Ten 1st team (2025)
Badges
Coaching lineage · 2023–2025
2 coachesCoaching transition mid-career: Tom Allen → Curt Cignetti. Worth noting in scheme + development context.
Where He Ended Up · NFL
Las Vegas2026 NFL rookie season
Season context · Team result + system
Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort
Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles
Elite: success rate (99th percentile). Strength: epa / dropback (98th percentile).
Real play-by-play efficiency
Season trend
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).
Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Adjusted ANY/A
9.851 of 206 QBsSack rate
5.5%131 of 206 QBsSacked on 5.5% of dropbacks (131 of 206) — and still 1 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Behind LOS · Negative air yds
Short · 0–9 air yds
Middle · 10–19 air yds
Deep · 20+ air yds
Overall 70.3% completion on 364 attempts · 53% completion on 19 deep attempts (20+ air yds).
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline
No situation moves him more than 35 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 16 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home10g | 233 | 3.3 | 10.1 | 0.1 |
| Road6g | 201 | 1.3 | 8.6 | 0.8 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-79g | 220 | 2.8 | 9.5 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+7g | 222 | 2.3 | 9.5 | 0.6 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Curt Cignetti
Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.
Player standing · 2025
Our Heisman model has him in the top five; no finalist honor is on the books yet.
Recognition
Production · CFB Index Score
Two-star recruit. Now #3 at the position.
One of 52 players who were elite at two different things in 2025. See the others ›
Selector Grid · 2025
Named Consensus All-American — recognized on 3+ of the 5 NCAA-recognized selector lists.
| Season | Team | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 273 | 379 | 72.0% | 3,535 | 9.3 | 41 | 6 | 182.9 | 90 | -- | -- |
| 2024 | California | 265 | 386 | 68.7% | 3,004 | 7.8 | 16 | 6 | 144.6 | 48 | -- | -- |
| 2023 | California | 153 | 243 | 63.0% | 1,708 | 7.0 | 14 | 10 | 132.8 | 50 | -- | -- |
| Career | 691 | 1,008 | 68.6% | 8,247 | 8.2 | 71 | 22 | 156.2 | 63 | -- | -- |
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Indiana | 90 | 276 | 3.1 | 7 | -- |
| 2024 | California | 87 | 105 | 1.2 | 2 | -- |
| 2023 | California | 49 | 86 | 1.8 | 2 | -- |
| Career | 226 | 467 | 2.1 | 11 | -- |
SIGNATURE GAME · Week 15 · 2025
W 13–10
at Ohio State
222 yds · 1 TD · 1 INT · QBR 90.2 · -3 rush yds (5 car)
A wire-to-wire battle — won by 3 on the road.
With C. Becker — 6 rec · 126 yds · M. McCarthy — 35 AVG · 3 IN 20 · 44 LONG
Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|
The plays that mattered most
Game log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 16 games
| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 27-14vs Old Dominion | 18/31 | 193 | 0 | 0 | 6.2 | 66.9 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | W 56-9vs Kennesaw State | 18/25 | 245 | 4 | 0 | 9.8 | 66.6 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 3 | W 73-0vs Indiana State | 19/20 | 270 | 5 | 0 | 13.5 | 93.4 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 4 | W 63-10vs Illinois | 21/23 | 267 | 5 | 0 | 11.6 | 93.6 | 5 TD passes |
| Wk 5 | W 20-15@ Iowa | 13/23 | 233 | 2 | 1 | 10.1 | 68.5 | |
| Wk 7 | W 30-20@ Oregon | 20/31 | 215 | 1 | 1 | 6.9 | 88.6 | |
| Wk 8 | W 38-13vs Michigan State | 24/28 | 332 | 4 | 0 | 11.9 | 97.1 | Season-high 332 yds |
| Wk 9 | W 56-6vs UCLA | 15/22 | 168 | 3 | 1 | 7.6 | 91.3 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 10 | W 55-10@ Maryland | 14/21 | 201 | 1 | 1 | 9.6 | 96.1 | |
| Wk 11 | W 27-24@ Penn State | 19/30 | 218 | 1 | 1 | 7.3 | 75.0 | |
| Wk 12 | W 31-7vs Wisconsin | 22/24 | 299 | 4 | 0 | 12.5 | 91.5 | 4 TD passes |
| Wk 14 | W 56-3@ Purdue | 8/15 | 117 | 2 | 0 | 7.8 | 69.4 | |
| Wk 15 | W 13-10@ Ohio State | 15/23 | 222 | 1 | 1 | 9.7 | 90.2 | |
| Bowl | W 38-3vs Alabama | 14/16 | 192 | 3 | 0 | 12.0 | 96.7 | |
| Bowl | W 56-22vs Oregon | 17/20 | 177 | 5 | 0 | 8.9 | 98.5 | |
| Bowl | W 27-21vs Miami | 16/27 | 186 | 0 | 0 | 6.9 | 90.6 | |
| Total | 273/379 | 3535 | 41 | 6 | 9.5 | 85.9 |
Play style
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
CFB Index positional classification
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
66.7% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 41.2% conversion-per-dropback — 36.4% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
2 of the team's 39 inside-the-5 carries (5.1%).
Player DNA
High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Hendon Hooker’s 2022 season.
Differs from Hendon on
Through 3 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Darian Mensah’s path through Duke.
Matches Darian on
Differs from Darian on
As a junior, his production profile tracks closest to Hendon Hooker's junior season at Tennessee (2022).
Matches Hendon on
Differs from Hendon on
Player DNA
Heisman Trajectory · 2025
Reached #1 in the Heisman model at some point during the season.