#12

Holton Ahlers

Senior quarterback for East Carolina. 2022: 3,708 passing yards, 28 TD, 5 INT.

QB · East Carolina · Sr. · #12

6′4″ · 230 lb · Greenville, NC

CFB Index 77 · #16 of 140 QBsHigh confidenceEast Carolina 2022 alumnus

Recruiting

3★

DUAL recruit

No. 543 nationally · Signed with East Carolina

Statement game465 yds · 6 TDvs South Florida (FBS) · W 48-28

Top 0.1% passing TDs game since 2021.

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for East Carolina. 2022: 3,708 passing yards, 28 TD, 5 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to East Carolina in 2018.

His career, year by year

How it ended

Five seasons at East Carolina, 13,933 passing yards — his college career is complete.

His career

Nobody recruited him. He earned the honors anyway.

201810 games

Signed with East Carolina3-star out of D H Conley

Career arc

Recruit

★★★

#543 national

CFB

College

East Carolina

2018–2022

NFL

NFL Draft

—

Not drafted

Coaching lineage · 2018–2022

2 coaches

2018

Scottie Montgomery

East Carolina

2019–2022

Mike Houston

East Carolina

era →

Coaching transition mid-career: Scottie Montgomery → Mike Houston. Worth noting in scheme + development context.

2022 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2018East Carolina3-9HC: Scottie Montgomery · Pass-leaning, fast tempo

2019East Carolina4-8HC: Mike Houston · Balanced

2020East Carolina3-6HC: Mike Houston · Run-leaning

2021East Carolina7-5HC: Mike Houston · Balanced, fast tempo

2022East Carolina8-5HC: Mike Houston · Balanced

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

77All-Conference level #16 of 140?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: interception rate (93rd percentile). Strength: sack rate (87th percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Interception rate#13 / 169 · 93rd pct

1.0%

Sack rate#22 / 169 · 87th pct

3.2%

Success rate#30 / 169 · 83rd pct

50.9%

EPA / dropback#56 / 169 · 67th pct

0.30

Explosive rate#74 / 169 · 57th pct

10.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Pass yards#10 / 177 · 95th pct

3708

Fumbles lost#1 / 169 · 92nd pct

Pass TDs#16 / 177 · 91st pct

Completion %#21 / 177 · 88th pct

67.2%

Rush TDs#30 / 177 · 80th pct

Yards / att#55 / 177 · 68th pct

7.9

Interceptions#52 / 177 · 65th pct

Rush yards#67 / 177 · 62nd pct

182

Season trend

Last seasonThis season

EPA / dropback

48th → 67th percentile

Success rate

45th → 83rd percentile

Explosive rate

65th → 57th percentile

Sack rate

19th → 87th percentile

Interception rate

50th → 93rd percentile

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

304/459 (66.2%) · 28 TD · 5 INT

459 of 469 attempts matched to play-by-play

Adjusted ANY/A

8.1531 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

3.3%31 of 206 QBs

Rarely sacked (31 of 206 QBs) and still 31 of 206 in Adjusted ANY/A.

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Short

0–9 yds

57%of completions

172 comp5.3 yds avg5 TD

Middle

10–19 yds

29%of completions

89 comp13.5 yds avg7 TD

Deep

20+ yds

14%of completions

43 comp31.2 yds avg9 TD

Overall 66.2% completion on 459 attempts · 43 deep completions averaging 31.2 yds.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2022 season · 13 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home8g	270	2.0	8.2	0.4
Road5g	309	2.4	8.1	0.4

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-78g	303	2.8	8.5	0.6
Weeks 8+5g	257	1.2	7.7	0.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Blake Harrell

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2022

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

77 · #16 of 140 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #16 at the position.

Career stats

Season	Team
2022	East Carolina	315	469	67.2%	3,708	7.9	28	5	151.1	64	--	--
2021	East Carolina	256	414	61.8%	3,126	7.6	18	10	134.8	46	--	--
2020	East Carolina	165	269	61.3%	1,927	7.2	18	9	136.9	43	--	--
2019	East Carolina	264	442	59.7%	3,387	7.7	21	10	135.3	--	--	--
2018	East Carolina	127	262	48.5%	1,785	6.8	12	3	118.5	--	--	--
Career		1,127	1,856	60.7%	13,933	7.5	97	37	137.0	53	--	--

Season	Team
2022	East Carolina	72	182	2.5	6	--
2021	East Carolina	116	204	1.8	6	--
2020	East Carolina	54	109	2.0	1	--
2019	East Carolina	108	359	3.3	6	--
2018	East Carolina	119	592	5.0	6	--
Career		469	1,446	3.1	25	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 8 · 2022

W 34–13

vs UCF

311 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT · QBR 92.3 · 6 rush yds (5 car) · 1 TD

Dominant 21-point win at home against UCF.

With C. Johnson — 11 rec · 140 yds · 1 TD · K. Mitchell — 105 rush yds (16 car) · 2 TD

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 11 · Cincinnati · 3&7 · Q2 · EPA +6.93C.J. Johnson 72 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)
Week 5 · South Florida · 3&7 · Q1 · EPA +6.40H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 40. Catch made by C.Johnson at ECU 40. Gain of 60 yards. ECU for 60 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Week 4 · Navy · 3&2 · Q4 · EPA +6.30H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 33. Catch made by I.Winstead at ECU 33. Gain of 67 yards. I.Winstead for 67 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Week 5 · South Florida · 2&4 · Q2 · EPA +6.10H.Ahlers pass complete to ECU 26. Catch made by C.Johnson at ECU 26. Gain of 74 yards. C.Johnson for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Week 13 · Temple · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA +5.93Keaton Mitchell 73 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)
Week 1 · Coastal Carolina · 4&6 · Q1 · EPA +4.37Holton Ahlers pass complete to Isaiah Winstead for 27 yds for a TD COASTL CAROLINA Penalty, Defensive Offside ( Yards) declined (Andrew Conrad KICK)
Week 1 · NC State · 1&10 · Q2 · EPA -4.03Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Shyheim Battle return for 27 yds to the NCSt 42
Week 9 · BYU · 2&9 · Q2 · EPA +4.00Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 51 yds to the BYU 23 for a 1ST down
Week 4 · Navy · 2&1 · Q4 · EPA -3.96H.Ahlers pass INTERCEPTED at NAV 35. Intercepted by T.Fletcher at NAV 35. Tackled by ECU at NAV 35.
Week 13 · Temple · 2&10 · Q4 · EPA +3.88Jaylen Johnson 38 Yd pass from Holton Ahlers (Andrew Conrad Kick)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2022 season · 13 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 20-21vs NC State	25/41	267	2	2	6.5	73.8	5 TD passes
Wk 2	W 39-21vs Old Dominion	25/39	270	2	0	6.9	69.6	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 3	W 49-10vs Campbell	17/20	263	3	0	13.2	87.5	3 TD passes
Wk 4	L 20-23vs Navy	22/34	267	2	1	7.9	58.3
Wk 5	W 48-28@ South Florida	31/41	465	6	0	11.3	94.0	Season-high 465 yds
Wk 6	L 9-24@ Tulane	32/51	288	1	2	5.6	52.6
Wk 7	W 47-45vs Memphis	26/34	304	1	0	8.9	86.5
Wk 8	W 34-13vs UCF	30/36	311	1	0	8.6	92.3
Wk 9	W 27-24@ BYU	15/22	197	0	0	9.0	87.3
Wk 11	L 25-27@ Cincinnati	26/46	280	2	0	6.1	68.6	Clean 2-TD game
Wk 12	L 3-42vs Houston	15/30	182	0	0	6.1	3.5
Wk 13	W 49-46@ Temple	25/37	314	3	0	8.5	76.1	3 TD passes
Bowl	W 53-29vs Coastal Carolina	26/38	300	5	0	7.9	—
Total		315/469	3708	28	5	8.2	70.8

How he plays

Play style

High-percentage passer who protects the ball. Loses the matchup on improvisation.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

73.1%Completion %

27.8%Conversion/dropback

60.5%Land short of sticks

0INTs

73.1% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 27.8% conversion-per-dropback — 60.5% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design