Justin McMillan: QB · Tulane · #12.
Closest statistical matches, adjusted for opponent strength.
Justin McMillan
Extends plays on the move until something opens up. The four seasons span two programs and two head coaches: Ed Orgeron and Willie Fritz. On tape: 290 passing yards and 25 rushing yards against Navy, Week 9, 2019.
Play style
Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.
Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long
Where the completions actually land
52.2% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 26.9% conversion-per-dropback — 41.7% of completions land short of the sticks.
Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. checkdown by design
Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration
Who gets the tough yard
11 of 11 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (100.0%). 8 of the team's 28 inside-the-5 carries (28.6%).
No outlet on our list has written about this player by name this season.
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Game log · Week-by-week
2019 season · 13 games
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| Wk | Opp | CMP/ATT | YDS | TD | INT | YPA | QBR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 42-14vs Florida International | 14/18 | 199 | 2 | 0 | 11.1 | 94.1 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 2 | L 6-24@ No. 10 Auburn | 10/33 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 3.1 | 16.0 | |
| Wk 3 | W 58-6vs Missouri State | 13/16 | 122 | 0 | 1 | 7.6 | 77.5 | |
| Wk 4 | W 38-31vs Houston | 7/20 | 186 | 3 | 0 | 9.3 | 62.6 | 3 TD passes |
| Wk 6 | W 42-33@ Army | 15/21 | 201 | 1 | 0 | 9.6 | 82.2 | |
| Wk 7 | W 49-7vs UConn | 18/24 | 231 | 2 | 0 | 9.6 | 86.6 | |
| Wk 8 | L 17-47@ Memphis | 15/28 | 187 | 1 | 3 | 6.7 | 66.0 | 3 INTs — rough day |
| Wk 9 | L 38-41@ Navy | 20/29 | 290 | 3 | 2 | 10.0 | 48.6 | Season-high 290 yds |
| Wk 10 | W 38-26vs Tulsa | 12/16 | 184 | 1 | 2 | 11.5 | — | |
| Wk 12 | L 21-29@ Temple | 11/27 | 103 | 0 | 1 | 3.8 | — | |
| Wk 13 | L 31-34vs UCF | 13/27 | 181 | 1 | 0 | 6.7 | — | |
| Wk 14 | L 20-37@ SMU | 22/37 | 242 | 0 | 0 | 6.5 | — | |
 Bowl | W 30-13vs Southern Miss | 13/18 | 215 | 3 | 0 | 11.9 | — | |
| Total | 183/314 | 2444 | 17 | 10 | 7.8 | — |
Week 9 · 2019
L 38-41
at Navy
The plays that mattered most
Pass Profile · Completions by yards gained (PBP)
Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from
Totals here are the box score's. Play-by-play lists 309 passing plays (178 completions) against the box score's 314 attempts (183 completions), and the depth buckets use play-by-play.
Adjusted ANY/A
6.33100 of 205 QBsSack rate
7.9%155 of 205 QBsSacked on 7.9% of dropbacks (155 of 205) — and still 100 of 205 in Adjusted ANY/A.
Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.
Short
0–9 ydsMiddle
10–19 ydsDeep
20+ ydsOverall 58.3% completion on 314 attempts · 31 deep completions averaging 29.9 yds.
Is he a different quarterback when it matters
Each situation vs his own 2019 baseline
No situation moves him more than 60 percentile points from his baseline.
Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.
Splits · Per-game
2019 season · 13 games
Home vs Road
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home6g | 184 | 1.5 | 9.3 | 0.5 |
| Road6g | 188 | 0.8 | 6.6 | 1.2 |
First half vs Second half
| YDS/g | TD/g | YPA | INT/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-77g | 180 | 1.6 | 8.9 | 0.3 |
| Weeks 8+6g | 198 | 1.0 | 7.5 | 1.3 |
Supporting cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Willie Fritz
Pass share
35.9%
336 pass / 601 run
Plays / game
72.1
13 games
Scheme: Run-heavy.
Player standing · 2019
314 pass attempts, 169 carries and 1 catch in 13 games, about as many passes and runs a game as a typical FBS quarterback who plays every week.
How it ended
Four seasons, at LSU and Tulane, 3,757 passing yards — the college career is complete.
Coaching lineage · 2014–2019
3 coachesPlayed for 3 head coaches at 2 schools: Les Miles, Ed Orgeron and Willie Fritz.
