Kiael Kelly

Senior quarterback for Ball State. 2025: 1,560 passing yards, 10 TD, 8 INT.

QB · Ball State · Sr. · #1

6′2″ · 186 lb · Tampa, FL

CFB Index 24 · #135 of 146 QBsHigh confidenceReturning to Ball State for 2026

The numbers

1,560

passing yards · 2025

10 TD · 8 INT · 5.7 per attempt

Backed by 19 car · 58 yds · 3 TD -- top 1% rushing TDs game.

The play that turned itSwung Ball State from 36% to 88% to win.Kent State at Ball State · 17-13

His career numbers, season by season

The story

4 quarterback for Ball State. 2025: 1,560 passing yards, 10 TD, 8 INT.

Signed as a 3-star recruit to Ball State in 2021.

His career, year by year

How he plays

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up.

Explosive rate: 17th percentile.

The full scouting read

Kiael Kelly

QB · Ball State · Sr · #1

Extends plays with his feet until something opens up. Four seasons at Ball State, two different head coaches: Mike Neu and Mike Uremovich. The receipt: 209 pass yds, 27 rush yds against UConn — Week 4, 2025.

Low coverage — composed from the verified record.

positional archetype classification
head-coach lineage
game log

2025 snapshot

Season context · Team result + system

2022Ball State5-7HC: Mike Neu · Balanced

2023Ball State4-8HC: Mike Neu · Run-heavy

2024Ball State3-9HC: Mike Neu · Balanced

2025Ball State4-8HC: Mike Uremovich · Run-heavy, slow tempo

Where this profile ranks vs the QB cohort

Box-score + play-by-play EPA percentiles

24Below cohort / limited sample #135 of 146?

High confidence13 metrics · season cumulative

Elite: rush yards (87th percentile). Concern: sack rate (1st percentile).

Real play-by-play efficiency

Explosive rate#152 / 183 · 17th pct

6.7%

Interception rate#155 / 183 · 15th pct

3.4%

EPA / dropback#175 / 183 · 5th pct

-0.07

Success rate#175 / 183 · 5th pct

29.8%

Sack rate#182 / 183 · 1st pct

14.4%

Box-score rates (8)

Rush yards#24 / 183 · 87th pct

608

Rush TDs#53 / 183 · 68th pct

Pass yards#109 / 183 · 41st pct

1560

Pass TDs#105 / 183 · 40th pct

Interceptions#115 / 183 · 32nd pct

Completion %#156 / 183 · 14th pct

56.3%

Yards / att#168 / 183 · 8th pct

5.7

Fumbles lost#154 / 174 · 8th pct

Season trend

EPA / dropback— first qualifying season

Success rate— first qualifying season

Explosive rate— first qualifying season

Sack rate— first qualifying season

Interception rate— first qualifying season

Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season. Most bars are box-score rates; EPA / success-rate bars are computed from real play-by-play (offense only — no defensive EPA model exists yet).

Passing profile

Pass Profile · True throw depth (charted plays)

Adjusted ANY/A, sack rate, and where the yards came from

148/267 (55.4%) · 10 TD · 8 INT

267 of 272 attempts matched to play-by-play

124 of 267 attempts charted for true throw depth

Adjusted ANY/A

3.62190 of 206 QBs

Sack rate

14.2%206 of 206 QBs

Sacked on 14.2% of dropbacks (206 of 206) and Adjusted ANY/A trails the field (190 of 206).

Adjusted ANY/A uses full-season box-score totals (attempts, yards, TDs, INTs); sack rate is play-by-play-derived.

Behind LOS · Negative air yds

18% of attempts (22)

82%comp

Air -3.6 · YAC 6.7 avg

Short · 0–9 air yds

42% of attempts (52)

60%comp1 INT

Air 4.4 · YAC 5.7 avg

Middle · 10–19 air yds

26% of attempts (32)

34%comp2 INT

Air 13.9 · YAC 3.6 avg

Deep · 20+ air yds

15% of attempts (18)

28%comp2 INT

Air 28.7 · YAC 3.2 avg

Overall 55.4% completion on 267 attempts · 28% completion on 18 deep attempts (20+ air yds).

Situational

Is he a different quarterback when it matters

Each situation vs his own 2025 baseline

No situation moves him more than 20 percentile points from his baseline.

BaselineThis situation

Down 1

-20 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 13/85 (15.3%) · league sack rate 4.2% · ~our read

Down 2

+1 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 12/91 (13.2%) · league sack rate 4.5% · ~our read

Down 3+

+16 pct pts vs baseline · sacks 17/101 (16.8%) · league sack rate 7.8% · ~our read

Deltas are vs. this player’s own season baseline, never a league average. League sack rate by down is shown as context because sack attribution isn’t incompletion-denominated.

Splits & context

Splits · Per-game

2025 season · 12 games

Home/Road · Season halves

Home vs Road

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Home5g	129	1.2	5.6	0.6
Road7g	131	0.6	5.8	0.7

First half vs Second half

	YDS/g	TD/g	YPA	INT/g
Weeks 1-76g	121	0.7	5.7	0.3
Weeks 8+6g	139	1.0	5.7	1.0

Supporting cast · Scheme

Staff and system around the player

2026 season

Head Coach

Mike Uremovich

Scheme reads (pass share, tempo, sack rate) need at least 3 team games — 2 games in so far.

Awards

Player standing · 2025

Impact starter

Producing measurably more than a replacement-level starter.

Recognition

Roster2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex

Production · CFB Index Score

24 · #135 of 146 QBs

Three-star recruit. Now #135 at the position.

2026 outlook

In the mix for All-MAC

Based on 2025: #10 of 12 Mid-American QBs

How the All-MAC estimate is computed

35% estimated, 95% confidence interval 31–38%. Base rate measured from players who finished at a comparable rank in their conference and came back the next season. It is an estimate from a small sample, not a forecast of this player.

Career stats

Season	Team
2025	Ball State	153	272	56.2%	1,560	5.7	10	8	110.7	5	--	--
2024	Ball State	2	4	50.0%	8	2.0	0	0	66.8	--	--	--
2023	Ball State	66	124	53.2%	577	4.7	2	3	92.8	22	--	--
2022	Ball State	1	1	100.0%	23	23.0	0	0	293.2	--	--	--
Career		222	401	55.4%	2,168	5.4	12	11	105.2	10	--	--

Season	Team
2025	Ball State	211	608	2.9	5	--
2024	Ball State	35	91	2.6	1	--
2023	Ball State	134	723	5.4	7	--
2022	Ball State	8	83	10.4	0	--
Career		388	1,505	3.9	13	--

Signature game

SIGNATURE GAME · Week 3 · 2025

W 34–29

vs New Hampshire

105 yds · 2 TD · 1 INT · QBR 77.4 · 101 rush yds (13 car) · 1 TD

Edged out New Hampshire at home in a shootout.

With Q. Ashley — 154 rush yds (12 car) · 2 TD · A. Saul — 44 AVG · 2 IN 20 · 49 LONG

Signature plays

Signature plays · top plays by |EPA|

The plays that mattered most

fact

Week 6 · Ohio · 3&4 · Q4 · EPA +4.54Qian Magwood 43 Yd pass from Kiael Kelly (Kiael Kelly Pass to Donovan Hamilton for Two-Point Conversion)
Week 13 · Toledo · 3&10 · Q4 · EPA +4.50(10:52) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short middle to #22 J.Bonds caught at BSU30, for 54 yards to the TOLEDO21 (#23 T.McKinstry), 1ST DOWN
Week 8 · Akron · 3&18 · Q1 · EPA +4.29Kiael Kelly run for 33 yds to the AKR 26 for a 1ST down
Week 12 · Eastern Michigan · 2&9 · Q1 · EPA -4.21(05:14) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #1 J.Scott at EMU03 #1 J.Scott return 0 yards to the EMU03 (#5 Q.Magwood)
Week 4 · UConn · 2&8 · Q1 · EPA +4.09Kiael Kelly pass complete to Qian Magwood for 53 yds to the CONN 28 for a 1ST down
Week 1 · Purdue · 4&2 · Q4 · EPA +4.08Kiael Kelly pass complete to Elijah Jackson for 37 yds to the PUR 30 for a 1ST down
Week 11 · Kent State · 4&2 · Q4 · EPA +4.07(01:58) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete short left to #85 K.Anthony caught at KSU27, for 29 yards to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:53, 1ST DOWN #40 D.Pippin kick attempt good (H: #43 A.Saul, LS: #45 C.Britton)
Week 13 · Toledo · 2&9 · Q4 · EPA -4.07(09:43) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass intercepted by #39 D.Hohler at TOLEDO13 #39 D.Hohler return 48 yards to the BSU39 (#85 K.Anthony; #84 T.Hoover)
Week 9 · Northern Illinois · 4&15 · Q4 · EPA +4.04(00:47) Shotgun #1 K.Kelly pass complete deep middle to #10 J.McDougle caught at NIU18, for 25 yards to the NIU18, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD
Week 3 · New Hampshire · 3&2 · Q1 · EPA +3.96Kiael Kelly run for 40 yds for a TD (Carson Holmer KICK)

Game log

Game log · Week-by-week

2025 season · 12 games

Box score · CFBD

Wk	Opp	CMP/ATT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA	QBR	Note
Wk 1	L 0-31@ Purdue	10/16	87	0	0	5.4	17.3
Wk 2	L 3-42@ Auburn	10/16	71	0	0	4.4	9.6
Wk 3	W 34-29vs New Hampshire	9/15	105	2	1	7.0	77.4
Wk 4	L 25-31@ UConn	17/24	209	1	1	8.7	38.6	Season-high 209 yds
Wk 6	W 20-14vs Ohio	17/33	185	1	0	5.6	57.4
Wk 7	L 0-42@ Western Michigan	13/22	68	0	0	3.1	22.6
Wk 8	W 42-28vs Akron	10/19	121	1	1	6.4	47.0
Wk 9	L 7-21@ Northern Illinois	10/23	136	1	2	5.9	34.6
Wk 11	W 17-13vs Kent State	17/29	173	2	0	6.0	14.2
Wk 12	L 9-24vs Eastern Michigan	13/22	62	0	1	2.8	9.4
Wk 13	L 9-38@ Toledo	13/30	166	0	2	5.5	7.0
Wk 14	L 24-45@ Miami (OH)	14/23	177	2	0	7.7	39.7
Total		153/272	1560	10	8	5.7	31.2

How he plays

Play style

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

CFB Index positional classification

Checkdown vs gunslinger · 3rd-and-long

Where the completions actually land

fact

43.9%Completion %

14.0%Conversion/dropback

61.1%Land short of sticks

2INTs

43.9% completion on 3rd-and-8+, but only 14.0% conversion-per-dropback — 61.1% of completions land short of the sticks.

Where completions land is fact — whether incompletions were aimed deep is intent, not recorded here, so this card counts completions only. ~ our read: checkdown by design

Short-yardage / goal-line · enumeration

Who gets the tough yard

fact

10/123rd/4th & short

10/18Inside-5 share

10 of 12 on 3rd/4th-and-2-or-less (83.3%). 10 of the team's 18 inside-the-5 carries (55.6%).

2026 Outlook

Ball State

Preseason read · May 27

2026 Depth chart

Returning starter

Quarterback · Ball State

Returning around him

6% of 2024 offensive production back (Heavy turnover)
Transfer portal: +6 net (24 in / 18 out)

2026 Award watch

No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)

Ball State · Last season: 4-8 · Talent rank #113 · 2026 recruiting class #113

DNA match

Player DNA

Scrambler

Makes plays with feet when the pocket collapses. Efficiency still on the rise.

His 2025 production profile sits closest to Cam Fancher’s 2022 season.

Cam Fancher

75%match

Marshall · 2022

Logan Smothers

Jacksonville State · 2023

66%

Jiya Wright

UL Monroe · 2023

61%

Mike Wright

Mississippi State · 2023

61%

Matches Cam on

Total pass EPA (college ability)

Yards / attempt

Differs from Cam on

Rush usage (higher)

Weight (lower)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

Through 2 college seasons, his career arc tracks closest to Jake Lange’s path through Southern Miss.

Jake Lange

96%match

Southern Miss · 2022

Will Plummer

Arizona · 2021

86%

Trae Self

Stephen F. Austin · 2022

86%

Justin Miller

Southern Utah · 2023

NFL Rd 2 · Pk 25

85%

Forrest Brock

Temple · 2024

82%

Matches Jake on

Height

Yards per attempt

Completion %

As a senior, his production profile tracks closest to Mike Wright's senior season at Mississippi State (2023).

Mike Wright

58%match

Mississippi State · 2023

Cam Fancher

Florida Atlantic · 2024

44%

Payton Thorne

Auburn · 2023

35%

Logan Fife

New Mexico State · 2025

33%

Brennan Armstrong

NC State · 2023

All-ACC

32%

Differs from Mike on

Height (lower)

EPA / dropback (adj) (lower)

Rush yards / carry (lower)

Stats from CFBD · ESPN · fan discourse. Every figure computed from source tables — not invented. Methodology

Kiael Kelly

2021

202410 games

202512 games

2025 snapshot

Passing profile

Situational

Splits & context

Awards

Impact starter

Career stats

Signature game

Signature plays

Game log

How he plays

DNA match

Scrambler