CFB Zeitgeist Score
22
Below cohort in the position cohort. Carried by rec tds at the 43rd percentile.
Tanner Arkin
Below the discourse floor — the honest stats-only state.
114 REC YDS · 13 REC · 2 REC TD
2026 Outlook
Returning to Illinois for 2026
2026 Depth chart
Projected starter
Tight end · Illinois
Returning around him
- 52% of 2024 offensive production back (Solid continuity)
- 3 Illinois players drafted to NFL
- Transfer portal: -8 net (19 in / 27 out)
2026 Award watch
No preseason watch lists yet (most drop June 15 – July 15)
Illinois · Last season: 9-4 (AP #23) · Talent rank #64 · 2026 recruiting class #45
TE · ILLINOIS · BIG TEN
Tanner Arkin
- 4
- #85
- 6-4 | 265 lb
- Fort Collins, CO
Heisman Heat
#546
<1% win probability
Fan Belief
Awaiting
Player-specific FI not yet ingested. Falls back to team mood below.
Respect Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
Reality Gap
Awaiting
Coming online with player-level FI.
ACCOLADE PROBABILITY
Heisman
<1%
TOP TE AWARD
Mackey
—
CONSENSUS
All-American
—
Player Standing · 17 rungs
Tier 2 · StarterR07 · Impact starter
Impact starter. Producing measurable value above replacement.
Not on team2-deepStarterRecognizedEliteApex
Career arc · Season-by-season Standing
5 seasons on the ladder
2021
Colorado State · TE
—
★
2022
Colorado State · TE
R09 · All-Conference HM / 2nd team
Recognized
2023
Illinois · TE
—
2024
Illinois · TE
—
2025
Illinois · TE
—
Development Trajectory · receiving yards
2021–2025+1167%
Up 1167% from first season to most-recent.
Career Arc
HS
Recruit
★★★
CFB
College
2 teams
NFL
NFL Draft
—
Identity & Role
The durable bio layer: position, size, hometown, and roster role.
Recruiting Pedigree
How big the prospect was before college, and whether the later career arc beat that expectation.
| Class | Profile | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 3-star | 0.8185 | No. 2042 recruit | HighSchool | Colorado State |
Transfer Arc
Portal movement changes role, context, and perception. This keeps that path in one place.
| Season | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|
| No transfer portal moves on file for this player. | ||
Heisman Lens · 2024 Season · Final
Where the player landed at the end of the listed season — final nowcast rank, win/finalist/ballot probabilities, and the cleanest official Heisman placement on file.
HIGH CONFIDENCE· through week 16Heisman Futures
Not yet listed on major futures markets.
No achievements unlocked yet this season.
Selector Grid · 2025
AP—
FWAA—
AFCA—
WCFF—
SN—
SI—
Selector recognition fills in once the major honors lists (AP, FWAA, AFCA, Walter Camp, Sporting News, SI) are scraped and ingested.
NIL · Recruiting · NFL Draft
Market value, pedigree & pro outcome
Recruit stars
★★★☆☆
to Colorado State
Composite
0.8185
#2042 national
Today’s Hot-Take
The Hot-Take engine fires when this player’s percentile profile crosses a defensible threshold (top 10% in a cohort, 100+ snap sample). When it’s quiet, the model is honoring its “must be defensible” rule.
Anti-Take
PENDINGThe contrarian read fires when the rules-engine detects a stat that complicates the Hot-Take. Quiet here means the model hasn’t found a defensible counter yet — not that one doesn’t exist.
The Room on Tanner Arkin
Fan sentiment ·
Belief Meter
50
Mixed Sentiment
Top Take
“”
Trajectory
Per-cohort trajectory lands when historical bucket data is aggregated.
Cohort divergence map
- Own fans · n=2
Rival Radar
How rival fanbases talk about Tanner Arkin
No rival-bucket mentions in the current season.
Signature Story
Awaiting candidate metric
He hasn't written his page yet — we'll start filling it in when there are enough snaps to rank against his peers.
Signature Moment
No signature moment on the ledger yet.
Returns once this player puts together a multi-game body of work — single-game flashes alone don't clear the bar.
Season Pace · Projection
Where the receiving totals stand
Through 8g
114Rec yards
13Receptions
2Rec TDs
Per game
14.2Rec yards
2Receptions
0Rec TDs
Projected (13g)
185.2Rec yards
21Receptions
3Rec TDs
To hit 700-yard receiver (currently 114): needs 117.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 1,000-yard receiver (currently 114): needs 177.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 60-catch season (currently 13): needs 9.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 80-catch season (currently 13): needs 13.4/game over remaining 5.
To hit 8 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 1.2/game over remaining 5.
To hit 10 receiving TDs (currently 2): needs 1.6/game over remaining 5.
Why the honors trail matters
The fast read on the thing that makes this player more than a generic stat line.
The useful clue on this card is not just the Heisman rank, but the broader honors spine. Tanner Arkin already has 1 loaded recognition item, which helps distinguish a player who is merely productive from one who is already earning selector-level validation.
2025 Season · Final
Traditional stats first. Advanced context underneath.
Last season
TE season snapshot
2025 season snapshot | final
2025 season snapshot | finalData: CFBD player stats + local Heisman modelPeer context: same position + same level
Player identity What kind of player is this?
30-second read
What kind of player is this?
Receiving weapon against FBS receiving peers.
2025 Season · Final
2025 season snapshot | final
Receiving
REC
13 68th
YDS
114 62nd
YPR
8.8 39th
TD
2 84th
Game Log · Week-by-week
2025 season · 8 games
| Wk | Opp | REC | YDS | AVG | TD | LONG | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 | W 52-3vs Western Illinois | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 1 | 11 | |
| Wk 4 | L 10-63@ Indiana | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 | 3 | |
| Wk 5 | W 34-32vs USC | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 | 12 | |
| Wk 6 | W 43-27@ Purdue | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 | 7 | |
| Wk 9 | L 25-42@ Washington | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 1 | 5 | |
| Wk 10 | W 35-13vs Rutgers | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 | 11 | |
| Wk 14 | W 20-13vs Northwestern | 2 | 33 | 16.5 | 0 | 28 | Season-high 33 yds |
| Bowl | W 30-28vs Tennessee | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 | 15 | |
| Total | 13 | 114 | 8.5 | 2 | 28 |
Season-by-season tables Career rows + per-season box score
Traditional history
Traditional Stats
Season rows up top, career context at the bottom.
Season context · Team result + system
2021Colorado State3-9HC: Steve Addazio · Run-leaning, fast tempo
2022Colorado State3-9HC: Jay Norvell · Run-leaning, slow tempo
2023Illinois5-7HC: Bret Bielema · Balanced
2024Illinois10-3HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
2025Illinois9-4HC: Bret Bielema · Run-leaning
| Season | Team | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Illinois | 13 | 114 | 8.8 | 2 | -- |
| 2024 | Illinois | 16 | 111 | 6.9 | 3 | -- |
| 2023 | Illinois | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 | -- |
| 2022 | Colorado State | 14 | 116 | 8.3 | 0 | -- |
| 2021 | Colorado State | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 | -- |
| Career | 5 loaded seasons | 45 | 351 | 7.8 | 6 | -- |
Advanced layer Usage, value, and context
Advanced metrics second
Advanced Metrics
Usage, value, and opponent-adjusted context.
The tight end's share of the passing offense, which helps distinguish a featured receiving tight end from a secondary option.
A blended usage view that shows how often the offense flows through the tight end compared with other same-level peers.
Every percentile is compared against players at the same position and level, so an FBS quarterback is judged against FBS quarterbacks, not the whole sport.
The top tables stick to the stats fans already know from broadcasts and box scores. Advanced context is pushed underneath instead of replacing the basics.
Open full stat explorer
| Group | Metric | Value | Rank | Pct | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Receiving | Receptions | 13 | #154/475 | 68th pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving yards | 114 | #180/475 | 62nd pct | Volumevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving TD | 2 | #79/475 | 84th pct | Scoringvs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Yards / catch | 8.8 | #291/475 | 39th pct | Efficiencyvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Pass share | 6.8% | #187/468 | 60th pct | Air-game usagevs FBS TE |
| Receiving | Receiving LONG | 28 | #149/475 | 69th pct | Metricvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 1st-down usage | 4.0% | #131/468 | 72nd pct | Early-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Standard-down usage | 3.9% | #136/468 | 71st pct | Base-situation sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Role share | 3.1% | #213/468 | 55th pct | Share of team offensevs FBS TE |
| Usage | 3rd-down usage | 2.7% | #258/468 | 45th pct | Money-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | 2nd-down usage | 2.2% | #324/468 | 31st pct | Middle-down loadvs FBS TE |
| Usage | Passing-down usage | 0.9% | #378/468 | 19th pct | Known-passing sharevs FBS TE |
| Usage | Rush share | 0.0% | #58/468 | 88th pct | Ground-game usagevs FBS TE |
Player Standing
Universal 17-step ladder. Tier pills below; accolade streams nested.
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION
On-team2-deepStartingRecognizedEliteApex
AWAITING CLASSIFICATION · Rung None of 16
Why he’s here
Standing classification populates when honors, Heisman, and roster signals all align.
What moves him up
What moves him down
Accolade streams
Status—Awaiting tracker
The Mackey award tracker integrates per-week probability once a dedicated scraper for this award lands. Confirmed past winners and finalists for this player will surface here.
Splits · Per-game
2025 season · 8 games
Home vs Road
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home5g | 1.8 | 19.0 | 10.7 | 0.2 |
| Road3g | 1.3 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 0.3 |
Win vs Loss
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wins6g | 1.7 | 17.0 | 10.1 | 0.2 |
| Losses2g | 1.5 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 0.5 |
First half vs Second half
| REC/g | YDS/g | YPR | TD/g | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-75g | 1.4 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 0.2 |
| Weeks 8+3g | 2.0 | 18.3 | 9.2 | 0.3 |
Pocket and defense-quality (clean vs. pressure) splits are coming soon.
Savant · Box-rate percentiles
Where this profile ranks vs the TE cohort
22Below cohort
Concern: rec yards (7th).
Percentiles versus same-position peers with enough snaps this season, based on box-score rates.
Advanced Savant · TE · 2024
Percentile Card
Advanced opponent-adjusted percentile bars are coming soon for this player.
P4G5All FBS
Advanced Savant
Opponent-adjusted advanced metrics with a cohort filter.
Advanced opponent-adjusted metrics are coming soon for this player. Selected cohort: P4.
Peer Comparator · Fingerprint match
Three closest profiles by box-rate percentile
Tanner ArkinIllinoisBryce CaufieldOregon State· 68% simHayden HansenFlorida· 66% simTyler FortenberryArkansas State· 63% sim
Rec TDs
Long catch
Yards / catch
Receptions
Rec yards
Closest peers by overall box-score percentile profile at the same position.
Player DNA
The Complete TE
Dual-threat: blocks when needed, catches when needed. Coveted on both sides.
TE
His 2025 production profile sits closest to Tanner Arkin’s 2024 season.
Tanner Arkin
78%match
#2
Zaire Mitchell-Paden
67%
#3
Markeston Douglas
66%
#4
Markeston Douglas
66%
#5
Konner Fox
66%
Matches Tanner on
Height
Weight
Reception volume
Differs from Tanner on
EPA / play (adj) (higher)
Not enough data yet for this comparison.
As a graduate, his production profile tracks closest to Nate Boerkircher's graduate season at Texas A&M (2025).
Nate Boerkircher
69%match
NFL Rd 2 · Pk 24
#2
Sav'ell Smalls
64%
#3
Broc Lane
63%
#4
Jake Overman
62%
#5
Joe Royer
All-Big 12NFL Rd 5
59%
Matches Nate on
Reception volume
Yards / reception
Differs from Nate on
EPA / play (adj) (lower)
Weight (higher)
Total EPA (college ability) (lower)
Supporting Cast · Scheme
Staff and system around the player
Head Coach
Bret Bielema
Pass share
45.6%
372 pass / 444 run
Plays / game
62.8
13 games
OL sack rate (allowed)
11.0%
292 dropbacks · PBP
Scheme: Run-leaning.
Coaching Lineage · 2021–2025
1 coach2021
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2022
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2023
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2024
Bret Bielema
Illinois
2025
Bret Bielema
Illinois
Played his entire career under Bret Bielema.
Bio · Recruiting · Transfer · Roster
Off-field context — switch tabs to drill into recruit profile, transfer arc, or roster timeline.
HometownFort Collins, CO
Height6'4"
Weight265 lb
Class4
PositionTE
Jersey85
No fields populated yet.
No fields populated yet.
Current teamIllinois
ConferenceBig Ten
Joined2025
Career arc5 season(s)
Trophy Case · Confirmed honors
What the selectors said
🎖
ALL-CONFERENCE
All-Conf mention (2022)
All-Mountain West
Trophy Case · Detail
Every honor on the ledger, broken out by stream and selector.
1 all-conference honor
Conference-level recognition helps anchor whether a player is merely statistically loud or actually viewed as elite within his competitive lane.
Honors Timeline
Season-end distinction and week-by-week recognition on one timeline.
| Season | Honor | Scope | Team / Selector | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | All-Mountain West | all_conference | Colorado State | Mountain West | TE |
Heisman By Year
Modeled rank and official finish by season.
| Season | Team | Role | Latest Model | Forecast | Win | Finalist | Official Finish | Points | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Illinois | TE4 | #546 | #536 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W16 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2023 | Illinois | TE4 | #3632 | #3726 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W19 snapshot | Big Ten |
| 2022 | Colorado State | TE4 | #3843 | #4486 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
| 2021 | Colorado State | TE4 | #4496 | #4772 | 0.0% | 0.0% | -- | -- | W20 snapshot | Mountain West |
Roster Timeline
Team, conference, and class by season.
| Season | Team | Conference | Pos | Class | Bio |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Illinois | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-4 | 265 lb | Fort Collins, CO |
| 2024 | Illinois | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-4 | 265 lb | Fort Collins, CO |
| 2023 | Illinois | Big Ten | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-4 | 265 lb | Fort Collins, CO |
| 2022 | Colorado State | Mountain West | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-4 | 265 lb | Fort Collins, CO |
| 2021 | Colorado State | Mountain West | TE | 4 | No. 85 | 6-4 | 265 lb | Fort Collins, CO |